雷達裡奧的可怕警告：全球經濟出現裂痕

投資者加里·斯通（Gary Stone）向其他投資者提出了一條至關重要的建議：關注雷·達裡奧（Ray Dalio）的經濟預測。

Acclaimed investor Gary Stone urges fellow investors to heed the economic forecasts of Ray Dalio, considering his visionary insights and track record in predicting market movements.

著名投資者加里·斯通 (Gary Stone) 敦促其他投資者關注雷·達裡奧 (Ray Dalio) 的經濟預測，考慮到他在預測市場走勢方面的遠見卓識和記錄。

Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund with $112 billion in assets under management, is known for his deep understanding of economic patterns and his research into the causes of economic collapse.

達裡奧是全球最大對沖基金橋水基金的創始人，管理著1120億美元的資產，以其對經濟模式的深刻理解和對經濟崩潰原因的研究而聞名。

His advice is particularly crucial now, as Wall Street listens closely to his latest warnings about the global economy.

他的建議現在尤其重要，因為華爾街正在密切關注他對全球經濟的最新警告。

Dalio has highlighted several trends that are causing concern. He points out that global debt has now reached $253 trillion, or 322% of global GDP. This debt burden, together with widening wealth inequality, is fueling social tensions.

達裡奧強調了一些引起擔憂的趨勢。他指出，全球債務目前已達253兆美元，佔全球GDP的322%。這種債務負擔，加上財富不平等的擴大，正在加劇社會緊張局勢。

In 2019, Dalio described the global economy as a “machine” that was showing significant cracks. His advice? Investors should maintain a “very, very diversified portfolio” across countries and asset classes to safeguard against potential economic turmoil.

2019年，達裡奧將全球經濟描述為一台出現嚴重裂縫的「機器」。他的建議？投資者應在不同國家和資產類別之間保持“非常非常多元化的投資組合”，以防止潛在的經濟動盪。

In a June 2023 interview with Bloomberg TV, Dalio warned that the world is entering a “dangerous phase” in the debt cycle. He explained that the global economy was nearing the end of a debt cycle, a period characterized by a supply-demand imbalance where too much debt is being produced and too few buyers are available.

2023 年 6 月，達利奧在接受彭博電視台採訪時警告稱，世界正在進入債務週期的「危險階段」。他解釋說，全球經濟正接近債務週期的尾聲，這段時期的特徵是供需不平衡，債務產生過多，而買家卻太少。

Dalio highlighted that major investors have already lost money on treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions are worsening the situation. According to Dalio, if this trend continues, the next 5-10 years could be very difficult in terms of managing the supply-demand balance of debt.

達裡奧強調，主要投資者已經在國債上遭受損失，而地緣政治緊張局勢正在使情況惡化。達利奧表示，如果這種趨勢持續下去，未來5-10年管理債務供需平衡可能會非常困難。

Dalio has also spoken about what he calls a “paradigm shift” in the market. He explained that over time, markets become accustomed to certain economic periods—whether it’s non-inflationary growth, inflationary times, or disinflation.

達裡奧也談到了他所說的市場「範式轉移」。他解釋說，隨著時間的推移，市場會習慣某些經濟時期——無論是非通膨增長、通膨時期還是通貨緊縮時期。

Eventually, these periods end, but markets continue to expect the same conditions to persist, leading to significant market adjustments when the paradigm changes.

最終，這些時期結束，但市場繼續預期相同的情況將持續存在，導致範式發生變化時出現重大市場調整。

Dalio's advice to navigate these shifts is the creation of an “all-weather portfolio,” which balances risk and ensures diversification across different asset classes to weather unpredictable economic conditions.

達利奧應對這些轉變的建議是創建“全天候投資組合”，以平衡風險並確保不同資產類別的多元化，以應對不可預測的經濟狀況。

With these warnings in mind, investors are advised to consider Dalio's approach to risk management and diversification, especially in a time of economic uncertainty.

考慮到這些警告，建議投資者考慮達裡奧的風險管理和多元化方法，特別是在經濟不確定的時期。