美联储降息前应买入的 7 只利率敏感股票

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JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) anticipates a 35% probability of recession in the United States by year-end, while the chances of recession in the first half of 2025 are pegged at 45%. Given these expectations, I have little doubt that the Fed will pursue expansionary monetary policies before the year ends. From an investment perspective, it’s a good time to buy interest rate sensitive stocks for quick gains.

摩根大通（NYSE：JPM）预计，到年底美国经济衰退的可能性为 35%，而 2025 年上半年经济衰退的可能性为 45%。考虑到这些预期，我毫不怀疑美联储将在年底前推行扩张性货币政策。从投资角度来看，现在是买入利率敏感股以快速获利的好时机。

An important point to note is that rate cuts are intended to boost consumption and investment spending. It therefore translates into bullish momentum for industrial commodities and energy in anticipation of GDP growth acceleration. Further, with expansionary policies, the dollar weakens and precious metals trend higher. At the same time, higher liquidity in the financial system implies a flow of money into relatively risky asset classes.

需要注意的重要一点是，降息的目的是刺激消费和投资支出。因此，由于预期 GDP 增长加速，这转化为工业商品和能源的看涨势头。此外，随着扩张性政策的实施，美元走弱，贵金属走高。与此同时，金融体系流动性增加意味着资金流入风险相对较高的资产类别。

With this overview, let’s talk about seven interest rate sensitive stocks that are positioned to trend higher on the first rate cut.

有了这个概述，我们来谈谈七只对利率敏感的股票，这些股票在第一次降息时将会走高。

1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM)

1.纽蒙特公司（纽约证券交易所代码：NEM）

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is an attractively valued gold miner that’s worth considering before the rate cut. It’s interesting to note that gold has trended higher in 2024 and Citi expects the precious metal to trade at $3,000 an ounce in the next 6 to 18 months. With potential upside in gold, I expect a meaningful rally for NEM stock. I must add that the gold miner offers a healthy dividend yield of 2.1%.

纽蒙特公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NEM）是一家估值颇具吸引力的金矿公司，在降息之前值得考虑。有趣的是，黄金在 2024 年呈走高趋势，花旗预计贵金属在未来 6 至 18 个月内的交易价格将达到每盎司 3,000 美元。由于黄金有潜在的上涨空间，我预计 NEM 股票将出现有意义的反弹。我必须补充一点，这家金矿公司提供了 2.1% 的健康股息收益率。

From an asset perspective, Newmont has 128 million ounces of gold reserves and 155 million ounces in resources. With 10 tier one assets, Newmont has visibility to support steady production growth into 2040s.

从资产角度来看，纽蒙特拥有1.28亿盎司黄金储量和1.55亿盎司资源。纽蒙特拥有 10 项一级资产，能够支持 2040 年代的稳定产量增长。

Additionally, Newmont has an investment grade balance sheet and reported operating cash flow of $1.4 billion for Q2 2024. With the possibility of higher realized gold price, it’s likely that annual OCF will be in the range of $7 to $10 billion. This will position Newmont to increase dividends and the scale of share repurchase.

此外，纽蒙特拥有投资级资产负债表，并报告 2024 年第二季度的运营现金流为 14 亿美元。由于实现金价可能更高，年度 OCF 可能会在 7 至 100 亿美元之间。这将使纽蒙特公司能够增加股息和股票回购规模。

2. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)

2.雪佛龙公司（纽约证券交易所代码：CVX）

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) stock has remained depressed in the last 12 months with oil remaining subdued. However, I expect oil to trend higher and it’s a good time to accumulate CVX stock. Besides trading at attractive valuations, the stock also offers a healthy dividend yield of 4.55%.

雪佛龙公司 (NYSE:CVX) 的股价在过去 12 个月中持续低迷，油价持续低迷。然而，我预计油价将走高，现在是积累 CVX 股票的好时机。除了以有吸引力的估值进行交易外，该股还提供 4.55% 的健康股息收益率。

The first positive to note is that Chevron has attractive breakeven assets. For Q2 2024, the oil & gas company reported operating cash flow of $6.3 billion. If oil trades near $100 per barrel, Chevron will be positioned to deliver annual OCF of $35 to $40 billion.

第一个值得注意的积极因素是雪佛龙拥有有吸引力的盈亏平衡资产。 2024 年第二季度，该石油和天然气公司报告的运营现金流为 63 亿美元。如果石油交易价格接近每桶 100 美元，雪佛龙将能够实现 35 至 400 亿美元的年度 OCF。

The second positive is that Chevron has an investment grade balance sheet. As of Q2 2024, the company reported net debt ratio of 10.7%. This provides flexibility to make aggressive investments. For the first half of 2024, Chevron reported capital investment of $8.1 billion. The company is on-track for annual investments in the range of $14 to $16 billion. This will ensure healthy reserve replacement and steady production growth.

第二个积极因素是雪佛龙拥有投资级资产负债表。截至 2024 年第二季度，该公司的净负债率为 10.7%。这为进行积极投资提供了灵活性。雪佛龙报告 2024 年上半年的资本投资为 81 亿美元。该公司预计每年投资 14 至 160 亿美元。这将确保健康的储量替代和稳定的产量增长。

3. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO)

3.力拓（纽约证券交易所代码：RIO）

Among industrial commodity stocks, Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) looks undervalued at a forward P/E of 8.6. Further, RIO stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.9%. With rate cuts and possible stimulus, I expect industrial commodities to trend higher and Rio is positioned to benefit.

在工业商品股中，力拓 (NYSE:RIO) 的预期市盈率为 8.6，看起来被低估。此外，RIO 股票的股息收益率高达 6.9%，极具吸引力。随着降息和可能的刺激措施，我预计工业大宗商品将走高，力拓有望受益。

It’s important to note that even in a relatively subdued commodity price environment, Rio has reported robust cash flows. For the first half of 2024, the commodity company reported operating and free cash flow of $7 billion and $2.8 billion respectively.

值得注意的是，即使在大宗商品价格相对低迷的环境下，力拓也报告了强劲的现金流。 2024 年上半年，该大宗商品公司报告的运营现金流和自由现金流分别为 70 亿美元和 28 亿美元。

While the iron ore segment remains the cash flow machine, Rio is also diversifying. The focus is on metals that are likely to support global energy transition. This includes aluminium, copper, titanium dioxide and lithium. Diversification is likely to create value in the next five years.

尽管铁矿石业务仍然是现金流机器，但力拓也在实现多元化。重点是可能支持全球能源转型的金属。其中包括铝、铜、二氧化钛和锂。多元化可能会在未来五年创造价值。

Overall, Rio Tinto has a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows. Dividends are sustainable and I expect continued value creation through share repurchase.

总体而言，力拓拥有强劲的资产负债表和强劲的现金流。股息是可持续的，我预计通过股票回购能够持续创造价值。

4. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN)

4.Coinbase Global（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) stock has witnessed a sharp correction of 16% in the last one month. This does not come as a surprise with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) declining. Further, Coinbase reported lower trading income in Q2 2024.

Coinbase Global（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）股价在过去一个月内大幅回调 16%。随着比特币（BTC-USD）下跌，这并不令人意外。此外，Coinbase 报告 2024 年第二季度的交易收入较低。

I however believe that the correction is a good buying opportunity and COIN stock is attractive at a forward P/E of 33. With rate cuts impending, it’s likely that Bitcoin will bounce back strongly. Further, if Donald Trump is elected as President

然而，我认为调整是一个很好的买入机会，COIN 股票的远期市盈率为 33 倍，具有吸引力。随着降息即将到来，比特币很可能会强劲反弹。此外，如果唐纳德·特朗普当选总统