聯準會降息前應買進的 7 隻利率敏感股票

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JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) anticipates a 35% probability of recession in the United States by year-end, while the chances of recession in the first half of 2025 are pegged at 45%. Given these expectations, I have little doubt that the Fed will pursue expansionary monetary policies before the year ends. From an investment perspective, it’s a good time to buy interest rate sensitive stocks for quick gains.

摩根大通（NYSE：JPM）預計，到年底美國經濟衰退的可能性為 35%，而 2025 年上半年經濟衰退的可能性為 45%。考慮到這些預期，我毫不懷疑聯準會將在年底前推行擴張性貨幣政策。從投資角度來看，現在是買進利率敏感股以快速獲利的好時機。

An important point to note is that rate cuts are intended to boost consumption and investment spending. It therefore translates into bullish momentum for industrial commodities and energy in anticipation of GDP growth acceleration. Further, with expansionary policies, the dollar weakens and precious metals trend higher. At the same time, higher liquidity in the financial system implies a flow of money into relatively risky asset classes.

需要注意的重要一點是，降息的目的是刺激消費和投資支出。因此，由於預期 GDP 成長加速，這轉化為工業商品和能源的看漲勢頭。此外，隨著擴張性政策的實施，美元走弱，貴金屬走高。同時，金融體系流動性增加意味著資金流入風險相對較高的資產類別。

With this overview, let’s talk about seven interest rate sensitive stocks that are positioned to trend higher on the first rate cut.

有了這個概述，我們來談談七隻對利率敏感的股票，這些股票在第一次降息時將會走高。

1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM)

1.紐蒙特公司（NYSE：NEM）

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is an attractively valued gold miner that’s worth considering before the rate cut. It’s interesting to note that gold has trended higher in 2024 and Citi expects the precious metal to trade at $3,000 an ounce in the next 6 to 18 months. With potential upside in gold, I expect a meaningful rally for NEM stock. I must add that the gold miner offers a healthy dividend yield of 2.1%.

紐蒙特公司（NYSE：NEM）是一家估值頗具吸引力的金礦公司，在降息前值得考慮。有趣的是，黃金在 2024 年呈現走高趨勢，花旗預計貴金屬在未來 6 至 18 個月內的交易價格將達到每盎司 3,000 美元。由於黃金有潛在的上漲空間，我預計 NEM 股票將出現有意義的反彈。我必須補充一點，這家金礦公司提供了 2.1% 的健康股息殖利率。

From an asset perspective, Newmont has 128 million ounces of gold reserves and 155 million ounces in resources. With 10 tier one assets, Newmont has visibility to support steady production growth into 2040s.

從資產角度來看，紐蒙特擁有1.28億盎司黃金儲量和1.55億盎司資源。紐蒙特擁有 10 項一級資產，能夠支持 2040 年代的穩定產量成長。

Additionally, Newmont has an investment grade balance sheet and reported operating cash flow of $1.4 billion for Q2 2024. With the possibility of higher realized gold price, it’s likely that annual OCF will be in the range of $7 to $10 billion. This will position Newmont to increase dividends and the scale of share repurchase.

此外，紐蒙特擁有投資等級資產負債表，並報告 2024 年第二季的營運現金流為 14 億美元。這將使紐蒙特公司能夠增加股利和股票回購規模。

2. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)

2.雪佛龍公司（NYSE：CVX）

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) stock has remained depressed in the last 12 months with oil remaining subdued. However, I expect oil to trend higher and it’s a good time to accumulate CVX stock. Besides trading at attractive valuations, the stock also offers a healthy dividend yield of 4.55%.

雪佛龍公司 (NYSE:CVX) 的股價在過去 12 個月持續低迷，油價持續低迷。然而，我預計油價將走高，現在是累積 CVX 股票的好時機。除了以有吸引力的估值進行交易外，該股還提供 4.55% 的健康股息收益率。

The first positive to note is that Chevron has attractive breakeven assets. For Q2 2024, the oil & gas company reported operating cash flow of $6.3 billion. If oil trades near $100 per barrel, Chevron will be positioned to deliver annual OCF of $35 to $40 billion.

第一個值得注意的正面因素是雪佛龍擁有有吸引力的損益平衡資產。 2024 年第二季度，該石油和天然氣公司報告的營運現金流為 63 億美元。如果石油交易價格接近每桶 100 美元，雪佛龍將能夠實現 35 至 400 億美元的年度 OCF。

The second positive is that Chevron has an investment grade balance sheet. As of Q2 2024, the company reported net debt ratio of 10.7%. This provides flexibility to make aggressive investments. For the first half of 2024, Chevron reported capital investment of $8.1 billion. The company is on-track for annual investments in the range of $14 to $16 billion. This will ensure healthy reserve replacement and steady production growth.

第二個正面因素是雪佛龍擁有投資等級資產負債表。截至 2024 年第二季度，該公司的淨負債比率為 10.7%。這為進行積極投資提供了靈活性。雪佛龍公佈 2024 年上半年資本投資額為 81 億美元。該公司預計每年投資 1,400 至 160 億美元。這將確保健康的儲量替代和穩定的產量成長。

3. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO)

3.力拓（NYSE：RIO）

Among industrial commodity stocks, Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) looks undervalued at a forward P/E of 8.6. Further, RIO stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.9%. With rate cuts and possible stimulus, I expect industrial commodities to trend higher and Rio is positioned to benefit.

在工業商品股中，力拓 (NYSE:RIO) 的預期本益比為 8.6，看起來被低估。此外，RIO 股票的股息殖利率高達 6.9%，極具吸引力。隨著降息和可能的刺激措施，我預期工業大宗商品將走高，力拓可望受益。

It’s important to note that even in a relatively subdued commodity price environment, Rio has reported robust cash flows. For the first half of 2024, the commodity company reported operating and free cash flow of $7 billion and $2.8 billion respectively.

值得注意的是，即使在大宗商品價格相對低迷的環境下，力拓也報告了強勁的現金流。 2024 年上半年，該大宗商品公司報告的營運現金流和自由現金流分別為 70 億美元和 28 億美元。

While the iron ore segment remains the cash flow machine, Rio is also diversifying. The focus is on metals that are likely to support global energy transition. This includes aluminium, copper, titanium dioxide and lithium. Diversification is likely to create value in the next five years.

儘管鐵礦石業務仍然是現金流機器，但力拓也正在多元化。重點是可能支持全球能源轉型的金屬。其中包括鋁、銅、二氧化鈦和鋰。多元化可能在未來五年創造價值。

Overall, Rio Tinto has a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows. Dividends are sustainable and I expect continued value creation through share repurchase.

整體而言，力拓擁有強勁的資產負債表和強勁的現金流。股利是可持續的，我預計透過股票回購能夠持續創造價值。

4. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN)

4.Coinbase Global（納斯達克股票代碼：COIN）

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) stock has witnessed a sharp correction of 16% in the last one month. This does not come as a surprise with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) declining. Further, Coinbase reported lower trading income in Q2 2024.

Coinbase Global（納斯達克股票代碼：COIN）股價在過去一個月內大幅回檔 16%。隨著比特幣（BTC-USD）下跌，這並不令人意外。此外，Coinbase 報告 2024 年第二季的交易收入較低。

I however believe that the correction is a good buying opportunity and COIN stock is attractive at a forward P/E of 33. With rate cuts impending, it’s likely that Bitcoin will bounce back strongly. Further, if Donald Trump is elected as President

然而，我認為調整是一個很好的買入機會，COIN 股票的遠期本益比為 33 倍，具有吸引力。此外，如果唐納德·特朗普當選總統