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美联储的关键利率决策具有广泛的影响,影响全球市场,包括比特币等加密货币。
Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (ἮΠΑ) have a wide-reaching impact on global markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Being a relatively new and volatile asset class, crypto markets react dynamically to rate hikes and cuts. As the central bank shifts its monetary policy stance, it causes ripples in the demand, volatility, and liquidity of cryptocurrencies, which investors need to monitor carefully.
美联储(ἮΠα)的利率决策对全球市场产生广泛影响,包括比特币等加密货币。作为一种相对较新且波动性较大的资产类别,加密货币市场对加息和降息做出动态反应。随着央行货币政策立场的转变,会对加密货币的需求、波动性和流动性产生连锁反应,投资者需要仔细监控。
Let’s take a closer look at how interest rates affect cryptocurrencies and the role they play in the crypto market.
让我们仔细看看利率如何影响加密货币以及它们在加密市场中扮演的角色。
How Interest Rates Affect Cryptocurrency
利率如何影响加密货币
Interest rate hikes and cuts impact the cryptocurrency market differently, mainly depending on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Rate cuts tend to fuel optimism as it increases liquidity in the market, leading to higher risk-taking and increased demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, rate hikes tend to reduce liquidity, making riskier assets less attractive.
加息和降息对加密货币市场的影响不同,主要取决于投资者情绪和更广泛的经济背景。降息往往会加剧市场的乐观情绪,因为它会增加市场的流动性,从而导致更高的风险承担和对比特币等投机资产的需求增加。相反,加息往往会减少流动性,从而降低风险资产的吸引力。
Let’s take a closer look at the two scenarios — rate hikes and rate cuts — and their different impacts on the crypto market.
让我们仔细看看加息和降息这两种情况以及它们对加密货币市场的不同影响。
What Happens During Rate Cuts?
降息期间会发生什么?
A central bank or Fed's decision to cut rates is usually a sign that the economy is weakening. When the Fed cuts rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, which tends to encourage risky investments, including cryptocurrencies.
央行或美联储降息的决定通常是经济疲软的迹象。当美联储降息时,借贷变得更便宜,这往往会鼓励包括加密货币在内的风险投资。
For instance, in 2020, when the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, Bitcoin initially experienced a 60% correction, followed by a remarkable 1,600% surge throughout the year. Lower interest rates tend to drive investors away from traditional savings vehicles toward more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, in particular, benefits as a safe-haven asset during inflation fears, especially when those fears coincide with falling interest rates.
例如,2020 年,当美联储降息 0.25% 时,比特币最初经历了 60% 的回调,随后全年大幅飙升 1,600%。较低的利率往往会促使投资者从传统的储蓄工具转向加密货币等更具投机性的资产。尤其是在通胀担忧期间,比特币作为避险资产受益,尤其是当这些担忧与利率下降同时发生时。
A research report by S&P Global supports this thesis by emphasizing the pronounced correlation between Bitcoin price fluctuations and monetary policy adjustments. Indeed, periods of low interest rates are associated with rising prices, while rapid rate hikes lead to declines, reflecting broader market trends.
标准普尔全球的一份研究报告通过强调比特币价格波动与货币政策调整之间的显着相关性来支持这一论点。事实上,低利率时期与价格上涨有关,而快速加息则导致价格下跌,反映了更广泛的市场趋势。
Why Rate Hikes Trigger Declines in Crypto
为什么加息会引发加密货币下跌
On the other hand, rising interest rates have the opposite effect. As Cointelegraph notes, rising interest rates squeeze liquidity in financial markets, making risky assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. Rising rates increase yields on low-risk fixed income instruments, prompting investors to pull capital out of volatile assets like Bitcoin.
另一方面,利率上升会产生相反的效果。正如 Cointelegraph 指出的那样,利率上升挤压了金融市场的流动性,使得加密货币等风险资产的吸引力下降。利率上升会提高低风险固定收益工具的收益率,促使投资者从比特币等波动性资产中撤资。
Cryptocurrencies have responded to the decrease in liquidity like other risk assets: they fell when the Fed announced its intention to raise rates in November 2021 and then throughout 2022 when the Fed aggressively followed through on its promise. In addition, the collapse of cryptocurrencies such as LUNA / UST, and exchanges like FTX has undermined traders' confidence in these virtual assets. Bitcoin's price fell about 65% at the time.
与其他风险资产一样,加密货币也对流动性下降做出了反应:当美联储在 2021 年 11 月宣布打算加息时,加密货币下跌,然后在 2022 年美联储积极兑现其承诺时,加密货币下跌。此外,LUNA/UST等加密货币以及FTX等交易所的崩盘也削弱了交易者对这些虚拟资产的信心。当时比特币的价格下跌了约 65%。
Markets are currently consolidating as the pace of rate cuts and the health of the US economy remain unclear.
由于降息步伐和美国经济健康状况仍不明朗,市场目前正在盘整。
Bitcoin is actively moving on expectations: while the markets were expecting a rate hike, Bitcoin was falling, but as soon as the Fed stopped raising rates, the markets started pricing in a rate cut, which caused the price to rise.
比特币正积极向预期发展:虽然市场预期加息,但比特币却在下跌,但一旦美联储停止加息,市场就开始消化降息,从而导致价格上涨。
At the moment, the markets are consolidating since the speed of the rate cut and the state of the US economy are not entirely clear. But as the Fed begins to ease its monetary policy after a period of tightening, a rise in Bitcoin’s price seems inevitable, however, in the short term, it may still go into a correction.
目前,由于降息速度和美国经济状况尚不完全清楚,市场正在盘整。但随着美联储在经历了一段紧缩期后开始放松货币政策,比特币价格上涨似乎不可避免,但短期内仍可能进入回调。
Thus, when the economy is expected to improve, risky asset classes like equities and crypto are also expected to rise together, driven by positive investor sentiment and increased liquidity. However, when rates rise mainly due to monetary policy tightening to combat inflation, the cost of capital increases. As a result, risk-on assets like Bitcoin lose their appeal, causing their value to fall as rates continue to rise.
因此,当经济有望改善时,在积极的投资者情绪和流动性增加的推动下,股票和加密货币等风险资产类别预计也会一起上涨。然而,当利率上升主要是由于货币政策收紧以对抗通胀时,资本成本就会增加。结果,像比特币这样的风险资产失去了吸引力,导致其价值随着利率持续上升而下跌。
Other Factors
其他因素
Apart from the federal funds rate, several other factors can influence the performance of cryptocurrencies, including the broader macroeconomic climate, institutional interest, and regulatory changes. Here are a few key points to consider:
除了联邦基金利率之外,其他几个因素也会影响加密货币的表现,包括更广泛的宏观经济环境、机构利益和监管变化。以下是需要考虑的几个关键点:
US Treasuries
美国国债
Cryptocurrency was often advertised as a panacea for all problems, be it inflation, low interest rates, lack of purchasing power, or the devaluation of the US dollar. These positives were easy to believe, while cryptocurrency was growing seemingly independently of other assets.
加密货币经常被宣传为解决所有问题的灵丹妙药,无论是通货膨胀、低利率、购买力缺乏还是美元贬值。这些积极因素很容易让人相信,而加密货币的增长似乎独立于其他资产。
It is interesting to look at the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the yield curve spread between 10-year US Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries. Divergences between the assets lead to a corresponding correction in Bitcoin's price.
观察比特币价格与 10 年期美国国债和 2 年期国债之间收益率曲线利差之间的相关性很有趣。资产之间的差异导致比特币价格相应调整。
As far as we know, when short-term US bonds become more profitable than long-term ones, this is called an inversion of the yield curve. Under normal circumstances, long-term bonds offer higher yields, as investors focus more on riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, 2-year bonds, stocks, etc in the short term. However, when the yield curve inverts, i.e. when
据我们所知,当美国短期债券的盈利能力高于长期债券时,这被称为收益率曲线倒挂。一般情况下,长期债券的收益率较高,因为投资者短期内更关注风险较高的资产,如比特币、2年期债券、股票等。然而,当收益率曲线反转时,即当
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