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聯準會的關鍵利率決策有廣泛的影響,影響全球市場,包括比特幣等加密貨幣。
Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (ἮΠΑ) have a wide-reaching impact on global markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Being a relatively new and volatile asset class, crypto markets react dynamically to rate hikes and cuts. As the central bank shifts its monetary policy stance, it causes ripples in the demand, volatility, and liquidity of cryptocurrencies, which investors need to monitor carefully.
聯準會(ἮΠα)的利率決策對全球市場產生廣泛影響,包括比特幣等加密貨幣。作為一個相對較新且不穩定的資產類別,加密貨幣市場對升息和降息做出動態反應。隨著央行貨幣政策立場的轉變,會對加密貨幣的需求、波動性和流動性產生連鎖反應,投資人需要仔細監控。
Let’s take a closer look at how interest rates affect cryptocurrencies and the role they play in the crypto market.
讓我們仔細看看利率如何影響加密貨幣以及它們在加密市場中扮演的角色。
How Interest Rates Affect Cryptocurrency
利率如何影響加密貨幣
Interest rate hikes and cuts impact the cryptocurrency market differently, mainly depending on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Rate cuts tend to fuel optimism as it increases liquidity in the market, leading to higher risk-taking and increased demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, rate hikes tend to reduce liquidity, making riskier assets less attractive.
升息和降息對加密貨幣市場的影響不同,主要取決於投資者情緒和更廣泛的經濟背景。降息往往會加劇市場的樂觀情緒,因為它會增加市場的流動性,從而導致更高的風險承擔和對比特幣等投機資產的需求增加。相反,升息往往會減少流動性,從而降低風險資產的吸引力。
Let’s take a closer look at the two scenarios — rate hikes and rate cuts — and their different impacts on the crypto market.
讓我們仔細看看升息和降息這兩種情況以及它們對加密貨幣市場的不同影響。
What Happens During Rate Cuts?
降息期間會發生什麼事?
A central bank or Fed's decision to cut rates is usually a sign that the economy is weakening. When the Fed cuts rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, which tends to encourage risky investments, including cryptocurrencies.
央行或聯準會降息的決定通常是經濟疲軟的跡象。當聯準會降息時,借貸變得更便宜,這往往會鼓勵包括加密貨幣在內的創投。
For instance, in 2020, when the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, Bitcoin initially experienced a 60% correction, followed by a remarkable 1,600% surge throughout the year. Lower interest rates tend to drive investors away from traditional savings vehicles toward more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, in particular, benefits as a safe-haven asset during inflation fears, especially when those fears coincide with falling interest rates.
例如,2020 年,當聯準會降息 0.25% 時,比特幣最初經歷了 60% 的回調,隨後全年大幅飆升 1,600%。較低的利率往往會促使投資者從傳統的儲蓄工具轉向加密貨幣等更具投機性的資產。尤其是在通膨擔憂期間,比特幣作為避險資產受益,尤其是當這些擔憂與利率下降同時發生時。
A research report by S&P Global supports this thesis by emphasizing the pronounced correlation between Bitcoin price fluctuations and monetary policy adjustments. Indeed, periods of low interest rates are associated with rising prices, while rapid rate hikes lead to declines, reflecting broader market trends.
標準普爾全球的一份研究報告透過強調比特幣價格波動與貨幣政策調整之間的顯著相關性來支持這一論點。事實上,低利率時期與價格上漲有關,而快速升息則導致價格下跌,反映了更廣泛的市場趨勢。
Why Rate Hikes Trigger Declines in Crypto
為什麼升息會引發加密貨幣下跌
On the other hand, rising interest rates have the opposite effect. As Cointelegraph notes, rising interest rates squeeze liquidity in financial markets, making risky assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. Rising rates increase yields on low-risk fixed income instruments, prompting investors to pull capital out of volatile assets like Bitcoin.
另一方面,利率上升會產生相反的效果。正如 Cointelegraph 所指出的那樣,利率上升擠壓了金融市場的流動性,使得加密貨幣等風險資產的吸引力下降。利率上升會提高低風險固定收益工具的收益率,促使投資者從比特幣等波動性資產中撤資。
Cryptocurrencies have responded to the decrease in liquidity like other risk assets: they fell when the Fed announced its intention to raise rates in November 2021 and then throughout 2022 when the Fed aggressively followed through on its promise. In addition, the collapse of cryptocurrencies such as LUNA / UST, and exchanges like FTX has undermined traders' confidence in these virtual assets. Bitcoin's price fell about 65% at the time.
與其他風險資產一樣,加密貨幣也對流動性下降做出了反應:當聯準會在 2021 年 11 月宣布打算升息時,加密貨幣下跌,然後在 2022 年聯準會積極兌現其承諾時,加密貨幣下跌。此外,LUNA/UST等加密貨幣以及FTX等交易所的崩盤也削弱了交易者對這些虛擬資產的信心。當時比特幣的價格下跌了約 65%。
Markets are currently consolidating as the pace of rate cuts and the health of the US economy remain unclear.
由於降息步伐和美國經濟健康狀況仍不明朗,市場目前正在盤整中。
Bitcoin is actively moving on expectations: while the markets were expecting a rate hike, Bitcoin was falling, but as soon as the Fed stopped raising rates, the markets started pricing in a rate cut, which caused the price to rise.
比特幣正積極向預期發展:雖然市場預期升息,但比特幣卻在下跌,但一旦聯準會停止升息,市場就開始消化降息,導致價格上漲。
At the moment, the markets are consolidating since the speed of the rate cut and the state of the US economy are not entirely clear. But as the Fed begins to ease its monetary policy after a period of tightening, a rise in Bitcoin’s price seems inevitable, however, in the short term, it may still go into a correction.
目前,由於降息速度和美國經濟狀況尚不完全清楚,市場正在盤整中。但隨著聯準會在經歷了一段緊縮期後開始放鬆貨幣政策,比特幣價格上漲似乎不可避免,但短期內仍可能進入回檔。
Thus, when the economy is expected to improve, risky asset classes like equities and crypto are also expected to rise together, driven by positive investor sentiment and increased liquidity. However, when rates rise mainly due to monetary policy tightening to combat inflation, the cost of capital increases. As a result, risk-on assets like Bitcoin lose their appeal, causing their value to fall as rates continue to rise.
因此,當經濟有望改善時,在積極的投資者情緒和流動性增加的推動下,股票和加密貨幣等風險資產類別預計也會一起上漲。然而,當利率上升主要是由於貨幣政策收緊以對抗通膨時,資本成本就會增加。結果,像比特幣這樣的風險資產失去了吸引力,導致其價值隨著利率持續上升而下跌。
Other Factors
其他因素
Apart from the federal funds rate, several other factors can influence the performance of cryptocurrencies, including the broader macroeconomic climate, institutional interest, and regulatory changes. Here are a few key points to consider:
除了聯邦基金利率之外,其他幾個因素也會影響加密貨幣的表現,包括更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境、機構利益和監管變化。以下是需要考慮的幾個關鍵點:
US Treasuries
美國國債
Cryptocurrency was often advertised as a panacea for all problems, be it inflation, low interest rates, lack of purchasing power, or the devaluation of the US dollar. These positives were easy to believe, while cryptocurrency was growing seemingly independently of other assets.
加密貨幣經常被宣傳為解決所有問題的靈丹妙藥,無論是通貨膨脹、低利率、購買力缺乏或美元貶值。這些正面因素很容易讓人相信,而加密貨幣的成長似乎獨立於其他資產。
It is interesting to look at the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the yield curve spread between 10-year US Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries. Divergences between the assets lead to a corresponding correction in Bitcoin's price.
觀察比特幣價格與 10 年期美國公債和 2 年期公債之間殖利率曲線利差之間的相關性很有趣。資產之間的差異導致比特幣價格相應調整。
As far as we know, when short-term US bonds become more profitable than long-term ones, this is called an inversion of the yield curve. Under normal circumstances, long-term bonds offer higher yields, as investors focus more on riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, 2-year bonds, stocks, etc in the short term. However, when the yield curve inverts, i.e. when
據我們所知,當美國短期債券的獲利能力高於長期債券時,這被稱為殖利率曲線倒掛。一般情況下,長期債券的殖利率較高,因為投資人短期內較關注風險較高的資產,如比特幣、2年期債券、股票等。然而,當殖利率曲線反轉時,即當
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