2025年的第一季度（第一季度）以及唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的第二任总统任期的最初几个月 - 并没有像许多人那样希望。

分析师从将其比特币（BTC）价格目标设置为800,000美元到想知道加密货币熊市是否已经开始，这很好地说明了这一点。

The first quarter (Q1) of 2025 – and the initial months of Donald Trump’s second presidency – hasn’t been going as many had hoped. This is well exemplified by the fact that analysts went from setting their Bitcoin (BTC) price targets to $800,000 to wondering if the cryptocurrency bear market has started.

2025年的第一季度（第一季度）以及唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的第二任总统任期的最初几个月 - 并没有像许多人那样希望。分析师从将其比特币（BTC）价格目标设置为800,000美元到想知道加密货币熊市是否已经开始，这很好地说明了这一点。

Unfortunately for the bulls, indicators and signals hinting that BTC may be heading for a new ‘crypto winter’ have been piling up in recent trading, per the data compiled by the prominent on-chain analyst Ali Martinez.

不幸的是，对于公牛的指标和信号暗示，根据这位著名的链上分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）汇编的数据，BTC可能正在前往新的“加密冬季”。

Why Bitcoin may be entering a new bear market

为什么比特币可能进入新的熊市

Martinez explained that it is increasingly likely that Bitcoin is experiencing a macro trend shift, as indicated by the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, the Market Cap to Realized Cap (MVRV) Ratio, and the Market Cycle indicator, per a lengthy X thread, published on March 18.

马丁内斯（Martinez）解释说，比特币越来越有可能经历宏观趋势变化，这是由交换流动脉冲，实现CAP（MVRV）比率（MVRV）比率（MVRV）比例（MVRV）和市场周期指标的漫长X线程所表明的。

The market cycle indicator suggests #Bitcoin $BTC is in the midst of a macro trend shift. Watch closely for the next big move! pic.twitter.com/mVsIYVMmwx

市场周期指标表明#bitcoin $ btc正处于宏观趋势变化之中。密切关注下一个大动作！ pic.twitter.com/mvsiyvmmwx

Combined, these factors all point toward the momentum of the world’s premier cryptocurrency turning bearish.

这些因素结合在一起，均指向世界首要的加密货币变成看跌的动力。

As backing factors, Ali Martinez provided data showcasing that capital inflows have dropped sharply – from approximately $135 billion in December to $4 billion on March 18 – with large investors selling into the market and whales recording substantial profit-taking.

作为支持因素，阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）提供了数据表明，资本流入急剧下降 - 从12月的约1350亿美元减少到3月18日的40亿美元 - 大型投资者向市场出售，鲸鱼记录了可观的利润。

#Bitcoin $BTC whales just cashed out! Nearly $260 million in profits booked.

#bitcoin $ btc鲸鱼刚兑现！预订了将近2.6亿美元的利润。

Why Bitcoin’s fall may stop near $69,000

为什么比特币的跌倒可能会在69,000美元接近$ 69,000

The analyst also opined that due to the number of positions entered near $69,000 – approximately 750,000 traders purchased 313,000 BTC – Bitcoin might find its next strong support zone between $67,000 and $69,000.

该分析师还认为，由于职位的数量接近69,000美元 - 大约750,000个交易员购买了313,000 BTC - 比特币可能会发现其下一个强大的支持区在67,000美元至69,000美元之间。

Still, history demonstrates that the world’s premier cryptocurrency could plunge below the support as it has tended to swiftly reach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) – a level near $46,000 – after dropping below the 50-day SMA – close to $76,000 and above the nearest major support.

尽管如此，历史表明，全球首要的加密货币可能会跌至支持以下，因为它倾向于迅速达到200天的简单移动平均水平（SMA）（接近46,000美元），此前跌至50天的SMA（接近76,000美元），接近76,000美元，超过了最近的主要支持。

Historically, when #Bitcoin $BTC drops below the 50-week MA, it tends to test the 200-week MA. Right now, that’s at $75,500 and $46,000, respectively!

从历史上看，当#bitcoin $ btc下降到50周的MA以下时，它倾向于测试200周的MA。目前，这分别为75,500美元和46,000美元！

Martinez’s analysis hasn’t all been bearish. He also explained that some room remains for the continuation of the bull cycle: Should BTC reclaim $93,700, it would be well-positioned to soar toward a new high near $111,000, thanks to a significant rise in global liquidity that is evident despite the other bearish factors.

马丁内斯的分析并非全部是看跌。他还解释说，在牛周期的延续中，一些房间仍然存在：如果BTC收回93,700美元，它将有充分的位置，可以飙升至接近111,000美元的新高点，这要归功于全球流动性的显着上升，尽管还有其他看跌因素，但它还是很明显的。

Is there a Bitcoin bull case for 2025?

2025年是否有比特币牛套？

At press time on March 20, Bitcoin appears to be testing the waters for a continued rally. After trading below $85,000 for approximately 10 days, it suddenly soared toward $87,000.

在3月20日的发稿时间，比特币似乎正在测试水域的持续集会。在大约10天的85,000美元的交易价格低于$ 85,000之后，它突然飙升至87,000美元。

Despite this, the situation remains uncertain. Given the fact that BTC remains 12.66% down in the last 30 days, and that it had retraced from the latest high, it is possible the rally was a short-term effect of the SEC’s decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple Labs.

尽管如此，情况仍然不确定。鉴于BTC在过去30天内仍下降了12.66％，并且从最近的高点回来了，因此集会可能是SEC决定放弃对Ripple Labs诉讼的短期影响。

Still, hope remains both due to Bitcoin’s historical performance indicating it should find its cycle high later this year – 12-18 months after its April 2024 halving – and because it hasn’t retraced fully and is changing hands at $84,935 at press time.

尽管如此，Hope仍然是由于比特币的历史表现表明，它应该在今年晚些时候（2024年4月在其半半和的12-18个月）中找到其周期高 - 并且由于它在发稿时尚未完全回缩，并以84,935美元的价格易手。