2025年的第一季度（第一季度）以及唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的第二任總統任期的最初幾個月 - 並沒有像許多人那樣希望。

分析師從將其比特幣（BTC）價格目標設置為800,000美元到想知道加密貨幣熊市是否已經開始，這很好地說明了這一點。

The first quarter (Q1) of 2025 – and the initial months of Donald Trump’s second presidency – hasn’t been going as many had hoped. This is well exemplified by the fact that analysts went from setting their Bitcoin (BTC) price targets to $800,000 to wondering if the cryptocurrency bear market has started.

2025年的第一季度（第一季度）以及唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的第二任總統任期的最初幾個月 - 並沒有像許多人那樣希望。分析師從將其比特幣（BTC）價格目標設置為800,000美元到想知道加密貨幣熊市是否已經開始，這很好地說明了這一點。

Unfortunately for the bulls, indicators and signals hinting that BTC may be heading for a new ‘crypto winter’ have been piling up in recent trading, per the data compiled by the prominent on-chain analyst Ali Martinez.

不幸的是，對於公牛的指標和信號暗示，根據這位著名的鏈上分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）彙編的數據，BTC可能正在前往新的“加密冬季”。

Why Bitcoin may be entering a new bear market

為什麼比特幣可能進入新的熊市

Martinez explained that it is increasingly likely that Bitcoin is experiencing a macro trend shift, as indicated by the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, the Market Cap to Realized Cap (MVRV) Ratio, and the Market Cycle indicator, per a lengthy X thread, published on March 18.

馬丁內斯（Martinez）解釋說，比特幣越來越有可能經歷宏觀趨勢變化，這是由交換流動脈衝，實現CAP（MVRV）比率（MVRV）比率（MVRV）比例（MVRV）和市場週期指標的漫長X線程所表明的。

The market cycle indicator suggests #Bitcoin $BTC is in the midst of a macro trend shift. Watch closely for the next big move! pic.twitter.com/mVsIYVMmwx

市場週期指標表明#bitcoin $ btc正處於宏觀趨勢變化之中。密切關注下一個大動作！ pic.twitter.com/mvsiyvmmwx

Combined, these factors all point toward the momentum of the world’s premier cryptocurrency turning bearish.

這些因素結合在一起，均指向世界首要的加密貨幣變成看跌的動力。

As backing factors, Ali Martinez provided data showcasing that capital inflows have dropped sharply – from approximately $135 billion in December to $4 billion on March 18 – with large investors selling into the market and whales recording substantial profit-taking.

作為支持因素，阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）提供了數據表明，資本流入急劇下降 - 從12月的約1350億美元減少到3月18日的40億美元 - 大型投資者向市場出售，鯨魚記錄了可觀的利潤。

#Bitcoin $BTC whales just cashed out! Nearly $260 million in profits booked.

#bitcoin $ btc鯨魚剛兌現！預訂了將近2.6億美元的利潤。

Why Bitcoin’s fall may stop near $69,000

為什麼比特幣的跌倒可能會在69,000美元接近$ 69,000

The analyst also opined that due to the number of positions entered near $69,000 – approximately 750,000 traders purchased 313,000 BTC – Bitcoin might find its next strong support zone between $67,000 and $69,000.

該分析師還認為，由於職位的數量接近69,000美元 - 大約750,000個交易員購買了313,000 BTC - 比特幣可能會發現其下一個強大的支持區在67,000美元至69,000美元之間。

Still, history demonstrates that the world’s premier cryptocurrency could plunge below the support as it has tended to swiftly reach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) – a level near $46,000 – after dropping below the 50-day SMA – close to $76,000 and above the nearest major support.

儘管如此，歷史表明，全球首要的加密貨幣可能會跌至支持以下，因為它傾向於迅速達到200天的簡單移動平均水平（SMA）（接近46,000美元），此前跌至50天的SMA（接近76,000美元），接近76,000美元，超過了最近的主要支持。

Historically, when #Bitcoin $BTC drops below the 50-week MA, it tends to test the 200-week MA. Right now, that’s at $75,500 and $46,000, respectively!

從歷史上看，當#bitcoin $ btc下降到50週的MA以下時，它傾向於測試200週的MA。目前，這分別為75,500美元和46,000美元！

Martinez’s analysis hasn’t all been bearish. He also explained that some room remains for the continuation of the bull cycle: Should BTC reclaim $93,700, it would be well-positioned to soar toward a new high near $111,000, thanks to a significant rise in global liquidity that is evident despite the other bearish factors.

馬丁內斯的分析並非全部是看跌。他還解釋說，在牛週期的延續中，一些房間仍然存在：如果BTC收回93,700美元，它將有充分的位置，可以飆升至接近111,000美元的新高點，這要歸功於全球流動性的顯著上升，儘管還有其他看跌因素，但它還是很明顯的。

Is there a Bitcoin bull case for 2025?

2025年是否有比特幣牛套？

At press time on March 20, Bitcoin appears to be testing the waters for a continued rally. After trading below $85,000 for approximately 10 days, it suddenly soared toward $87,000.

在3月20日的發稿時間，比特幣似乎正在測試水域的持續集會。在大約10天的85,000美元的交易價格低於$ 85,000之後，它突然飆升至87,000美元。

Despite this, the situation remains uncertain. Given the fact that BTC remains 12.66% down in the last 30 days, and that it had retraced from the latest high, it is possible the rally was a short-term effect of the SEC’s decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple Labs.

儘管如此，情況仍然不確定。鑑於BTC在過去30天內仍下降了12.66％，並且從最近的高點回來了，因此集會可能是SEC決定放棄對Ripple Labs訴訟的短期影響。

Still, hope remains both due to Bitcoin’s historical performance indicating it should find its cycle high later this year – 12-18 months after its April 2024 halving – and because it hasn’t retraced fully and is changing hands at $84,935 at press time.

儘管如此，Hope仍然是由於比特幣的歷史表現表明，它應該在今年晚些時候（2024年4月在其半半和的12-18個月）中找到其周期高 - 並且由於它在發稿時尚未完全回縮，並以84,935美元的價格易手。