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许多分析师利用传统市场动态来描述白银价格的上涨,并指出技术需求的增加和生产能力的下降是白银价格上涨的原因。
Financial editor and founder of Marketwise, Porter Stansberry, believes that the rise of silver, which is experiencing a bull market, is driven by deeper causes than just the increase in tech-related demand. He links the increase in the prices of this commodity with the upcoming destruction of America’s banking system, which is being signaled by the movements of seasoned investors.
Marketwise财经编辑兼创始人Porter Stansberry认为,正在经历牛市的白银上涨背后有更深层次的原因,而不仅仅是科技相关需求的增加。他将这种商品价格的上涨与美国银行系统即将遭到破坏联系起来,经验丰富的投资者的行动表明了这一点。
According to Stansberry, real banking investors, such as Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio, have been shedding bank stocks since 2020. They have sold millions of dollars in shares of Bank of America, UBS, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs. The reason behind these actions is a one-trillion-dollar-deep hole in the commercial banks’ balance sheets.
Stansberry 表示,沃伦·巴菲特和雷·达利奥等真正的银行投资者自 2020 年以来一直在抛售银行股票。他们出售了美国银行、瑞银、富国银行、摩根大通和高盛价值数百万美元的股票。这些行动背后的原因是商业银行资产负债表上存在万亿美元的巨额漏洞。
“One-third of the reserves of our biggest banks are deeply ‘underwater,'” Stansberry explained. “That’s because they bought $2 trillion worth of long-term bonds (and mortgages) at interest rates around 1%.”
“我们最大的银行有三分之一的储备都深陷‘水下’,”斯坦斯伯里解释道。 “那是因为他们以 1% 左右的利率购买了价值 2 万亿美元的长期债券(和抵押贷款)。”
According to his analysis, the value of these assets has declined as a result of rising interest rates, leading to the fall of institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. However, the Federal Reserve, in an attempt to address the situation, has undertaken a loan program to try and patch the problem and postpone the crisis for a later date. One year after the program has been closed and these loans must be repaid.
他分析称,这些资产的价值因利率上升而下降,导致硅谷银行、Signature Bank、First Republic Bank等机构倒闭。然而,为了解决这一问题,美联储已经实施了一项贷款计划,试图解决问题并将危机推迟到以后发生。项目结束一年后,这些贷款必须偿还。
This event can sink big institutions like Bank of America, Stansberry alleges. “Bank of America reports it has $86 billion in unrecognized ‘mark to market’ losses on that bond portfolio. The bank has tangible equity (that is, real equity) of $200 billion. If rates go above 5%, I believe Bank of America’s tangible equity would be wiped out,” he stressed.
斯坦斯伯里称,这一事件可能会导致美国银行等大型机构陷入困境。 “美国银行报告称,该债券投资组合有 860 亿美元的未确认‘按市值计算’损失。该银行拥有2000亿美元的有形股本(即实际股本)。如果利率超过 5%,我相信美国银行的有形资产将被消灭,”他强调。
However, not only Bank of America would be at risk, but the whole financial system would have to run to raise capital if interest rates keep rising, with bank runs ensuing.
然而,如果利率持续上升,不仅美国银行将面临风险,整个金融体系也将不得不挤兑以筹集资金,从而导致银行挤兑。
The writers’ take:
编剧们的看法:
Stansberry’ perspective about investors taking refuge in commodities in the face of a countrywide bank failure is interesting as it explains the rise of silver and gold from a perspective different than the classic central bank, tech-related demand, and supply-side constraints. However, it remains to be seen if the Fed would allow this to happen without organizing another bailout to protect the system again.
斯坦斯伯里关于投资者在全国性银行倒闭时寻求大宗商品避难的观点很有趣,因为它从不同于传统央行、科技相关需求和供应方限制的角度解释了白银和黄金的上涨。然而,美联储是否会允许这种情况发生而不组织另一次救助来再次保护系统还有待观察。
What do you think about Porter Stansberry’s explanation for the silver bull market? Tell us in the comments section below.
您如何看待波特·斯坦斯伯里(Porter Stansberry)对白银牛市的解释?请在下面的评论部分告诉我们。
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