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許多分析師利用傳統市場動態來描述白銀價格的上漲,並指出技術需求的增加和生產能力的下降是白銀價格上漲的原因。
Financial editor and founder of Marketwise, Porter Stansberry, believes that the rise of silver, which is experiencing a bull market, is driven by deeper causes than just the increase in tech-related demand. He links the increase in the prices of this commodity with the upcoming destruction of America’s banking system, which is being signaled by the movements of seasoned investors.
Marketwise財經編輯兼創辦人Porter Stansberry認為,正在經歷多頭市場的白銀上漲背後有更深層的原因,而不僅僅是科技相關需求的增加。他將這種商品價格的上漲與美國銀行系統即將遭到破壞聯繫起來,經驗豐富的投資者的行動表明了這一點。
According to Stansberry, real banking investors, such as Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio, have been shedding bank stocks since 2020. They have sold millions of dollars in shares of Bank of America, UBS, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs. The reason behind these actions is a one-trillion-dollar-deep hole in the commercial banks’ balance sheets.
Stansberry 表示,巴菲特和雷達利奧等真正的銀行投資者自2020 年以來一直在拋售銀行股票。的股票。這些行動背後的原因是商業銀行資產負債表上存在著一兆美元的巨額漏洞。
“One-third of the reserves of our biggest banks are deeply ‘underwater,'” Stansberry explained. “That’s because they bought $2 trillion worth of long-term bonds (and mortgages) at interest rates around 1%.”
“我們最大的銀行有三分之一的儲備都深陷‘水下’,”斯坦斯伯里解釋道。 「那是因為他們以 1% 左右的利率購買了價值 2 兆美元的長期債券(和抵押貸款)。”
According to his analysis, the value of these assets has declined as a result of rising interest rates, leading to the fall of institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. However, the Federal Reserve, in an attempt to address the situation, has undertaken a loan program to try and patch the problem and postpone the crisis for a later date. One year after the program has been closed and these loans must be repaid.
他分析稱,這些資產的價值因利率上升而下降,導致矽谷銀行、Signature Bank、First Republic Bank等機構倒閉。然而,為了解決這個問題,聯準會已經實施了一項貸款計劃,試圖解決問題並將危機推遲到以後發生。專案結束一年後,這些貸款必須償還。
This event can sink big institutions like Bank of America, Stansberry alleges. “Bank of America reports it has $86 billion in unrecognized ‘mark to market’ losses on that bond portfolio. The bank has tangible equity (that is, real equity) of $200 billion. If rates go above 5%, I believe Bank of America’s tangible equity would be wiped out,” he stressed.
史坦斯伯里稱,這起事件可能導緻美國銀行等大型機構陷入困境。 「美國銀行報告稱,該債券投資組合有 860 億美元的未確認『按市值計算』損失。該銀行擁有2000億美元的有形股本(即實際股本)。如果利率超過 5%,我相信美國銀行的有形資產將被消滅,」他強調。
However, not only Bank of America would be at risk, but the whole financial system would have to run to raise capital if interest rates keep rising, with bank runs ensuing.
然而,如果利率持續上升,不僅美國銀行將面臨風險,整個金融體係也將不得不擠兌以籌集資金,導致銀行擠兌。
The writers’ take:
編劇們的看法:
Stansberry’ perspective about investors taking refuge in commodities in the face of a countrywide bank failure is interesting as it explains the rise of silver and gold from a perspective different than the classic central bank, tech-related demand, and supply-side constraints. However, it remains to be seen if the Fed would allow this to happen without organizing another bailout to protect the system again.
史坦斯伯里關於投資者在全國性銀行倒閉時尋求大宗商品避難的觀點很有趣,因為它從不同於傳統央行、科技相關需求和供應方限制的角度解釋了白銀和黃金的上漲。然而,聯準會是否會允許這種情況發生而不組織另一次救助來再次保護系統還有待觀察。
What do you think about Porter Stansberry’s explanation for the silver bull market? Tell us in the comments section below.
您如何看待波特·斯坦斯伯里(Porter Stansberry)對白銀牛市的解釋?請在下面的評論部分告訴我們。
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