Polymarket 选举博彩平台显示卡马拉·哈里斯对唐纳德·特朗普具有微观优势

最受欢迎的 Polymarket 投注在选举日之前出现了交易热潮，导致哈里斯在该投注平台上的获胜份额激增。

Democrat Kamala Harris' perceived winning odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a surge of market activity.

在博彩平台 Polymarket 上，民主党人卡玛拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 在 2024 年美国总统大选中的获胜赔率正在上升，用户在市场活动激增的情况下买卖数十万股受青睐的股票。

Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. For example, if a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.

Polymarket 是一个基于区块链的博彩市场，用户可以购买任何预测结果的“份额”，如果结果发生，每股可赢得 1 USDC。例如，如果某事件的“是”份额成本为 0.60 美元，则市场将此解释为该事件发生的可能性为 60%。

Shares of Harris winning the election surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday’s count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump's shares fell from 66 cents to 55 cents in the same period.

赢得选举的哈里斯的股价在周二计票前飙升至超过 44 美分，高于 10 月 30 日的 33 美分。共和党人唐纳德·特朗普的股价同期从 66 美分跌至 55 美分。

Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris' “yes” shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months.

周末，10,000 美元和 100,000 美元以上的赌注增加至高于平均水平。特朗普和哈里斯“是”股票的大股东在需求旺盛的情况下正在抛售股票，可能会从过去几个月这些股票价格上涨中获利。

The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.

根据 CoinDesk 的分析，哈里斯赔率的增加可能是由于交易员对冲他们的赌注，对 10,000 美元以上交易的研究表明，对哈里斯进行了大额赌注，并进行了战略交易，以防止特朗普的损失。

Some market observers said the increase in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders who’ve also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump.

一些市场观察人士表示，哈里斯获胜几率的增加反映了交易员的对冲头寸，他们也押注她的共和党对手特朗普会获胜。

Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could further be influencing market bets, with rumors about voting and fraud — which if true would favor Democrats — flooding social media over the past week.

有关特朗普投票违规行为的报道可能会进一步影响市场押注，过去一周有关投票和欺诈的谣言充斥着社交媒体，如果这些谣言属实，将有利于民主党。

Well-known political bettor “Domer” said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends.

著名政治博彩玩家“Domer”周日在 X 帖子中表示，考虑到各种民意调查和选民行为趋势，他们认为哈里斯成为下一任总统的机会为 55-60%。

The Polymarket whale pointed out that contrasting early voting trends show Republicans voting early more than Democrats, which could imply either strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior.

Polymarket鲸鱼指出，对比提前投票趋势显示，共和党人比民主党人更早投票，这可能意味着战略投票或选民行为的转变。

Moreover, post-2020 election results have not favored Republicans as expected despite President Joe Biden's challenges with his approval rating, suggesting a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome.

此外，尽管乔·拜登总统的支持率面临挑战，但 2020 年后的选举结果并未像预期的那样对共和党有利，这表明当前民意调查与实际选民情绪或结果之间可能存在不匹配。