Polymarket 選舉博彩平台顯示卡馬拉·哈里斯對唐納德·特朗普具有微觀優勢

最受歡迎的 Polymarket 投注在選舉日之前出現了交易熱潮，導致哈里斯在該投注平台上的獲勝份額激增。

Democrat Kamala Harris' perceived winning odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a surge of market activity.

在博彩平台 Polymarket 上，民主黨人 Kamala Harris 在 2024 年美國總統大選中的獲勝賠率正在上升，用戶在市場活動激增的情況下買賣數十萬股受青睞的股票。

Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. For example, if a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.

Polymarket 是一個基於區塊鏈的博彩市場，用戶可以購買任何預測結果的“份額”，如果結果發生，每股可贏得 1 USDC。例如，如果某事件的「是」份額成本為 0.60 美元，則市場將此解釋為該事件發生的可能性為 60%。

Shares of Harris winning the election surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday’s count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump's shares fell from 66 cents to 55 cents in the same period.

贏得選舉的哈里斯的股價在周二計票前飆升至超過 44 美分，高於 10 月 30 日的 33 美分。

Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris' “yes” shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months.

週末，10,000 美元和 100,000 美元以上的賭注增加至高於平均水平。川普和哈里斯「是」股票的大股東在需求旺盛的情況下正在拋售股票，可能會從過去幾個月這些股票價格上漲中獲利。

The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.

根據CoinDesk 的分析，哈里斯賠率的增加可能是由於交易員對沖他們的賭注，對10,000 美元以上交易的研究表明，對哈里斯進行了大額賭注，並進行了戰略交易，以防止川普的損失。

Some market observers said the increase in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders who’ve also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump.

一些市場觀察人士表示，哈里斯獲勝幾率的增加反映了交易員的對沖頭寸，他們也押注她的共和黨對手川普會贏。

Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could further be influencing market bets, with rumors about voting and fraud — which if true would favor Democrats — flooding social media over the past week.

有關川普投票違規行為的報導可能會進一步影響市場押注，過去一周有關投票和欺詐的謠言充斥著社交媒體，如果這些謠言屬實，將有利於民主黨。

Well-known political bettor “Domer” said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends.

著名政治博彩玩家「Domer」週日在 X 貼文中表示，考慮到各種民調和選民行為趨勢，他們認為哈里斯成為下一任總統的機會為 55-60%。

The Polymarket whale pointed out that contrasting early voting trends show Republicans voting early more than Democrats, which could imply either strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior.

Polymarket鯨魚指出，對比提前投票趨勢顯示，共和黨人比民主黨人更早投票，這可能意味著戰略投票或選民行為的轉變。

Moreover, post-2020 election results have not favored Republicans as expected despite President Joe Biden's challenges with his approval rating, suggesting a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome.

此外，儘管喬·拜登總統的支持率面臨挑戰，但 2020 年後的選舉結果並未像預期的那樣對共和黨有利，這表明當前民意調查與實際選民情緒或結果之間可能存在不匹配。