Polymarket Election Betting Platform Shows Kamala Harris With Microscopic Edge Over Donald Trump

The most popular Polymarket bet has seen a flurry in trades ahead of Election Day, contributing to a surge of Harris' winning shares on the betting platform.

Democrat Kamala Harris' perceived winning odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a surge of market activity.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. For example, if a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.

Shares of Harris winning the election surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday’s count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump's shares fell from 66 cents to 55 cents in the same period.

Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris' “yes” shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months.

The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.

Some market observers said the increase in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders who’ve also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump.

Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could further be influencing market bets, with rumors about voting and fraud — which if true would favor Democrats — flooding social media over the past week.

Well-known political bettor “Domer” said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends.

The Polymarket whale pointed out that contrasting early voting trends show Republicans voting early more than Democrats, which could imply either strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior.

Moreover, post-2020 election results have not favored Republicans as expected despite President Joe Biden's challenges with his approval rating, suggesting a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome.