由 Peter Thiel 部分资助的博彩网站 Polymarket 可能会人为抬高唐纳德·特朗普赢得 2024 年大选的几率

《华尔街日报》最近的一篇报道暗示，前总统唐纳德·特朗普在一个受欢迎的投注平台上不断上升的赔率可能是由一小群投注者人为抬高的。

Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds on a popular betting platform may be driven by a small group of bettors, according to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal. Despite some polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris either slightly ahead or locked in a close race, Polymarket pegged Trump’s odds at 59.7% and Harris’s at 40%. The last time the two candidates were tied on Polymarket was on October 4th.

据《华尔街日报》最近报道，前总统唐纳德·特朗普在一个受欢迎的博彩平台上不断上升的赔率可能是由一小群博彩者推动的。尽管一些民意调查显示，副总统卡马拉·哈里斯要么稍稍领先，要么势均力敌，但 Polymarket 认为特朗普的胜算为 59.7%，哈里斯的胜算为 40%。两位候选人最后一次在 Polymarket 上打平是在 10 月 4 日。

However, this surge could be deceptive. The Wall Street Journal points out that four anonymous accounts have allegedly placed around $30 million in bets on Trump in recent weeks. Polymarket’s odds rely on collective betting patterns rather than external data like polls, which makes them susceptible to manipulation. The accounts in question—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all created between June and this month, exhibit similar betting behavior and were funded through the same cryptocurrency exchange.

然而，这种激增可能具有欺骗性。 《华尔街日报》指出，最近几周，四个匿名账户据称对特朗普下了约 3000 万美元的赌注。 Polymarket 的赔率依赖于集体投注模式，而不是民意调查等外部数据，这使得它们容易受到操纵。相关账户——Fredi9999、Theo4、PrincessCaro 和 Michie——都是在 6 月至本月之间创建的，表现出类似的投注行为，并通过同一加密货币交易所提供资金。

Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, told the Journal that there’s a “strong reason to believe” all four accounts are controlled by the same entity. Rajiv Sethi, an economist who previously identified attempts to manipulate betting markets during Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential run, agreed that this situation looks suspicious. “If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.

Arkham Intelligence 首席执行官米格尔·莫雷尔 (Miguel Morel) 告诉《华尔街日报》，“有充分理由相信”所有四个账户均由同一实体控制。经济学家拉吉夫·塞西 (Rajiv Sethi) 此前曾发现米特·罗姆尼 (Mitt Romney) 2012 年总统竞选期间有人试图操纵博彩市场，他也认为这种情况看起来很可疑。 “如果我试图操纵市场，我就会这样做，”塞西说。

Adam Cochran, a crypto investor, and Never Trumper speculated that this might be part of a strategy to lay the groundwork for future claims of a stolen election if Trump were to lose. Political strategist Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at TargetSmart, believes these bets could be part of a broader effort to shape public perception of the race, emphasizing Trump’s image as a “strong” candidate. Bonier told Fortune, “If the public perceives Trump as losing, his image of strength—and consequently his support—could crumble.”

加密货币投资者亚当·科克伦 (Adam Cochran) 和 Never Trumper 推测，这可能是一项战略的一部分，目的是为未来如果特朗普输了，就会出现选举被盗的说法奠定基础。 TargetSmart 的高级顾问政治策略师汤姆·博尼尔 (Tom Bonier) 认为，这些押注可能是塑造公众对竞选看法的更广泛努力的一部分，并强调特朗普作为“强势”候选人的形象。博尼尔告诉《财富》杂志，“如果公众认为特朗普失败了，他的力量形象——以及他的支持——可能会崩溃。”

Polymarket has launched an investigation into possible manipulation, and it’s also possible that the bets were placed by individuals genuinely convinced of Trump’s victory or as a financial hedge in case of a Harris defeat. Alternatively, they may be trying to artificially inflate Trump’s chances to boost morale and keep the campaign’s donations flowing.

Polymarket 已对可能的操纵行为展开调查，这些赌注也有可能是由真正相信特朗普获胜的个人所下的，或者是作为哈里斯失败时的财务对冲。或者，他们可能试图人为地增加特朗普的机会，以提振士气并保持竞选捐款源源不断。

Others argue that prediction markets like Polymarket can be prone to insider trading, which they see as a feature not a bug as this enhances market accuracy by incorporating privileged information. While this practice is illegal in traditional markets for fairness reasons, prediction markets prioritize accuracy over fairness.

其他人则认为，像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场可能容易发生内幕交易，他们认为这是一个功能而不是错误，因为这通过纳入特权信息来提高市场准确性。虽然出于公平原因，这种做法在传统市场中是非法的，但预测市场优先考虑准确性而不是公平性。

Analyst and commentator Nic Carter wrote on X “It’s pretty obvious it’s not just a lone trader that’s upwardly manipulating Polymarket since all bookies and prediction markets give Trump roughly the same odds. The real divide is between the markets and the press/pundit driven proprietary models, which are more bullish Harris.”

分析师兼评论员 Nic Carter 在 X 上写道：“很明显，不仅仅是一个单独的交易员在向上操纵 Polymarket，因为所有博彩公司和预测市场都给特朗普提供了大致相同的赔率。真正的分歧在于市场和媒体/专家驱动的专有模型之间，后者更看好哈里斯。”

It’s also possible that Trump is ahead, and will win, and the betting markets are ahead on this. Nate Silver has the race tightening, writing today that, “Starting to see some Trump leads in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a great sign for Harris. Very close race, though.”

特朗普也有可能领先，并且会获胜，而博彩市场在这方面也处于领先地位。内特·西尔弗 (Nate Silver) 的竞选形势日益紧张，他今天写道，“开始看到特朗普在高质量的全国民意调查中领先，这对哈里斯来说当然不是一个好兆头。不过，比赛非常接近。”

Some other interesting Polymarket markets include:

其他一些有趣的 Polymarket 市场包括：

Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, the crucial swing state

特朗普在关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州领先

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan Before the Election?

特朗普会在大选前继续攻击乔·罗根吗？

Will Bitcoin hit a new all time high in 2024?

2024 年比特币会创下历史新高吗？