由 Peter Thiel 部分資助的博彩網站 Polymarket 可能會人為抬高唐納德·特朗普贏得 2024 年大選的幾率

《華爾街日報》最近的一篇報導暗示，前總統唐納德·川普在一個受歡迎的投注平台上不斷上升的賠率可能是由一小群投注者人為抬高的。

Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds on a popular betting platform may be driven by a small group of bettors, according to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal. Despite some polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris either slightly ahead or locked in a close race, Polymarket pegged Trump’s odds at 59.7% and Harris’s at 40%. The last time the two candidates were tied on Polymarket was on October 4th.

根據《華爾街日報》最近報道，前總統唐納德·川普在一個受歡迎的博彩平台上不斷上升的賠率可能是由一小群博彩者推動的。儘管一些民調顯示，副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯要么稍稍領先，要么勢均力敵，但 Polymarket 認為川普的勝算為 59.7%，哈里斯的勝算為 40%。兩位候選人最後一次在 Polymarket 上打平是在 10 月 4 日。

However, this surge could be deceptive. The Wall Street Journal points out that four anonymous accounts have allegedly placed around $30 million in bets on Trump in recent weeks. Polymarket’s odds rely on collective betting patterns rather than external data like polls, which makes them susceptible to manipulation. The accounts in question—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all created between June and this month, exhibit similar betting behavior and were funded through the same cryptocurrency exchange.

然而，這種激增可能具有欺騙性。 《華爾街日報》指出，最近幾週，四個匿名帳戶據稱對川普下了約 3000 萬美元的賭注。 Polymarket 的賠率依賴於集體投注模式，而不是民意調查等外部數據，這使得它們容易受到操縱。相關帳戶——Fredi9999、Theo4、PrincessCaro 和 Michie——都是在 6 月至本月之間創建的，表現出類似的投注行為，並透過同一加密貨幣交易所提供資金。

Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, told the Journal that there’s a “strong reason to believe” all four accounts are controlled by the same entity. Rajiv Sethi, an economist who previously identified attempts to manipulate betting markets during Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential run, agreed that this situation looks suspicious. “If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.

Arkham Intelligence 執行長 Miguel Morel 告訴《華爾街日報》，「有充分理由相信」所有四個帳戶均由同一實體控制。經濟學家拉吉夫·塞西 (Rajiv Sethi) 先前曾發現米特·羅姆尼 (Mitt Romney) 2012 年總統競選期間有人試圖操縱博彩市場，他也認為這種情況看起來很可疑。 「如果我試圖操縱市場，我就會這樣做，」塞西說。

Adam Cochran, a crypto investor, and Never Trumper speculated that this might be part of a strategy to lay the groundwork for future claims of a stolen election if Trump were to lose. Political strategist Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at TargetSmart, believes these bets could be part of a broader effort to shape public perception of the race, emphasizing Trump’s image as a “strong” candidate. Bonier told Fortune, “If the public perceives Trump as losing, his image of strength—and consequently his support—could crumble.”

加密貨幣投資者亞當·科克倫 (Adam Cochran) 和 Never Trumper 推測，這可能是一項策略的一部分，目的是為未來如果川普輸了，就會出現選舉被盜的說法奠定基礎。 TargetSmart 的高級顧問政治策略師 Tom Bonier 認為，這些押注可能是塑造公眾對競選看法的更廣泛努力的一部分，並強調川普作為「強勢」候選人的形象。博尼爾告訴《財富》雜誌，“如果公眾認為川普失敗了，他的權力形象——以及他的支持——可能會崩潰。”

Polymarket has launched an investigation into possible manipulation, and it’s also possible that the bets were placed by individuals genuinely convinced of Trump’s victory or as a financial hedge in case of a Harris defeat. Alternatively, they may be trying to artificially inflate Trump’s chances to boost morale and keep the campaign’s donations flowing.

Polymarket 已對可能的操縱行為展開調查，這些賭注也有可能是由真正相信川普獲勝的個人所下的，或者是作為哈里斯失敗時的財務對沖。或者，他們可能試圖人為地增加川普的機會，以提振士氣並保持競選捐款源源不絕。

Others argue that prediction markets like Polymarket can be prone to insider trading, which they see as a feature not a bug as this enhances market accuracy by incorporating privileged information. While this practice is illegal in traditional markets for fairness reasons, prediction markets prioritize accuracy over fairness.

其他人則認為，像 Polymarket 這樣的預測市場可能容易發生內線交易，他們認為這是一個功能而不是錯誤，因為這透過納入特權資訊來提高市場準確性。雖然出於公平原因，這種做法在傳統市場中是非法的，但預測市場優先考慮準確性而不是公平性。

Analyst and commentator Nic Carter wrote on X “It’s pretty obvious it’s not just a lone trader that’s upwardly manipulating Polymarket since all bookies and prediction markets give Trump roughly the same odds. The real divide is between the markets and the press/pundit driven proprietary models, which are more bullish Harris.”

分析師兼評論員 Nic Carter 在 X 上寫道：「很明顯，不僅僅是一個單獨的交易員在向上操縱 Polymarket，因為所有博彩公司和預測市場都給了川普大致相同的賠率。真正的分歧在於市場和媒體/專家驅動的專有模型之間，後者更看好哈里斯。

It’s also possible that Trump is ahead, and will win, and the betting markets are ahead on this. Nate Silver has the race tightening, writing today that, “Starting to see some Trump leads in high-quality national polls, which is certainly not a great sign for Harris. Very close race, though.”

川普也有可能領先，並且會獲勝，而博彩市場在這方面也處於領先地位。內特·西爾弗 (Nate Silver) 的競選情況日益緊張，他今天寫道，「開始看到川普在高品質的全國民意調查中領先，這對哈里斯來說當然不是一個好兆頭。不過，比賽非常接近。

Some other interesting Polymarket markets include:

其他一些有趣的 Polymarket 市場包括：

Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, the crucial swing state

川普在關鍵搖擺州賓州領先

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan Before the Election?

川普會在大選前繼續攻擊喬·羅根嗎？

Will Bitcoin hit a new all time high in 2024?

2024 年比特幣會創下歷史新高嗎？