为什么这么多人押注超级碗硬币折腾？

超级碗是美国最大的年度体育赛事，既适合粉丝，又是体育博彩。去年，仅在内华达州的体育博彩上，超过1.85亿美元就在超级碗58上下注，而全国估计的估计为230亿美元。

The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular bets in sports, despite the fact that there is no way to handicap the outcome. It's a 50/50 proposition, and either heads or tails will come up. So why do so many people wager on something that, in the end, is the equivalent of absolute dumb luck?

超级碗硬币抛弃是运动中最受欢迎的赌注之一，尽管事实上没有办法残障。这是一个50/50的命题，头部或尾巴都会出现。那么，为什么这么多人在赌注上，最终等于绝对愚蠢的运气呢？

Join us as we try to make heads or tails of the psychology and mathematics behind one of the oddest bets in all of sports.

加入我们，试图在所有体育中最奇怪的赌注之一背后制作心理学和数学的头或尾巴。

Simplicity and accessibility

简单性和可访问性

It’s hard to think of anything in sports betting that gives you a quicker outcome than betting on the coin toss at the Super Bowl. After all, we are talking about something that takes about three seconds from when the coin leaves the hand to when the side facing up is announced.

很难想到体育博彩中的任何东西，这些东西比在超级碗上投掷硬币的赌注更快。毕竟，我们谈论的是，从硬币离开手到宣布侧面的侧面时，大约需要三秒钟的时间。

And it's a 50/50 proposition. It's either going to land heads or tails. Betting on it requires no knowledge of the game. There’s no way you can take a "bad beat" and lose. That means anybody can bet on it, whether it’s a die-hard fan or someone who only watches the game to see the commercials.

这是一个50/50的命题。它要么要着陆或尾巴。投注它不需要游戏。您不可能采取“不好的节拍”而输。这意味着任何人都可以赌它，无论它是顽固的粉丝还是只观看游戏来看广告的人。

That’s why, unlike most bets placed in a two-sided market, there’s little to no juice. In fact, bet365 and DraftKings currently have both heads and tails priced at +100. That means they’re not taking a single penny from any of the winning bets. 

这就是为什么与大多数在双面市场中放置的赌注不同，几乎没有果汁。实际上，Bet365和DraftKings目前的头和尾巴的价格为+100。这意味着他们不会从任何获胜的赌注中拿出一分钱。

Though widely available, some areas don't offer this market. In America, it's only in 20 states and Washington, DC. However, it’s offered nearly everywhere in Canada. 

尽管广泛可用，但有些领域不提供这个市场。在美国，只有20个州和华盛顿特区。但是，在加拿大几乎所有地方都提供了它。

So, with no juice and limited audiences, why offer it at all? Mainly because it gets people into the action. And when you’re betting on the coin flip, you’re more likely to hang around and bet on other Super Bowl props. And those other wagers are where books make their money.

因此，如果没有果汁和有限的观众，为什么还要提供它呢？主要是因为它使人们采取行动。而且，当您押注硬币翻转时，您更有可能闲逛并押注其他超级碗道具。那些其他下注是书籍赚钱的地方。

The thrill of the unknown

未知的快感

Want to bet on trends? Good luck. Since Super Bowl 51, where tails won for a fourth straight year, there’s been no real trend to go by. Heads has won four of the last seven times, with neither side coming up more than two years in a row. 

想打赌趋势吗？祝你好运。由于超级碗51连续第四年获胜，因此没有真正的趋势。 Heads在过去七次中赢得了四次冠军，两侧都连续两年超过两年。

You could go by heads having hit three of the last four years, but doing so would ignore the fact that tails has been the winning side in seven of the last 11 Super Bowls. Then again, 28 of the 58 coin flips have come up heads, with tails being the correct selection the other 30 times. 

在过去的四年中，您可以击中三年的头脑，但是这样做会忽略这样一个事实，即在过去11个超级碗中，尾巴一直是胜利的一面。再说一次，58个硬币翻转中有28个出现了头，尾巴是另外30次的正确选择。

And that’s not even addressing the fact that winning the coin toss has little to no bearing on who wins the game itself. While the Kansas City Chiefs have won both the coin toss and the game over each of the last two seasons — heads — the previous eight Super Bowl champions lost the coin flip. 

这甚至没有解决这样一个事实，即赢得硬币掷骰几乎没有任何胜利。堪萨斯城酋长队在过去两个赛季中的每个赛季中都赢得了硬币和比赛冠军 - 前八个超级碗冠军失去了硬币翻转。

Furthermore, only 26 of the 58 Super Bowl champions won the toss. That’s not to mention the AFC has won nine of the last 13 tosses. Want another fun stat? You have to go back to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45 to find the last team from the NFC to win both the coin toss and the game itself.

此外，在58个超级碗冠军中，只有26个赢得了比赛。更不用说亚足联赢得了过去13次掷骰中的9场。想要另一个有趣的统计数据吗？您必须回到超级碗45的绿湾包装工，以找到NFC的最后一支球队，以赢得硬币和比赛本身。

Influence of prop-betting culture

支撑培养的影响

Caesars Sportsbook reported last year that a bettor placed a $100,000 wager on the result of the coin flip, going with the “Tails never fails” mantra. He lost that wager.

凯撒体育博德（Caesars Sportsbook）去年报道说，一名投注者对硬币翻转的结果进行了100,000美元的赌注，与“尾巴永不失败”的咒语进行。他失去了赌注。

But the fact that someone would stake that kind of money on something nobody controls shows just how popular Super Bowl props are. After all, there’s not a sporting event in the entire world that offers more unique props. 

但是，有人会在某些人控制的东西上赚钱的事实表明，超级碗道具的受欢迎程度。毕竟，全世界没有一个体育赛事提供更多独特的道具。

Want to bet on the length of the national anthem or America The Beautiful? You can! Do you think you know which song Kendrick Lamar will perform to open the halftime show? Take a shot. But even then, nearly all of these bets can be placed with some handicapping, even if it’s limited, as you can evaluate things such as how the anthem performer has sung the song in the past. The coin toss is chaos.

是否想押注美丽的国歌或美国的长度？你可以！您认为您知道哪首歌Kendrick Lamar会演奏以打开半场表演吗？开枪。但是即使那样，即使是有限的，几乎所有这些赌注都可以放在一些残障上，因为您可以评估诸如国歌表演者过去如何演唱这首歌之类的事情。硬币折腾是混乱。

The psychological appeal

心理吸引力

A 2014 study published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology stated that there’s an overwhelming bias when random individuals are asked to select the outcome of a coin toss. They’re 80% likely to pick whichever option they hear first — whether it’s “heads” or “tails” — or even a color on either side of a coin.

2014年发表在《实验心理学杂志》上的一项研究表明，当要求随机人选择硬币折腾的结果时，存在压倒性的偏见。他们有80％的人可能首先选择任何选项（无论是“头”还是“尾巴”），甚至是硬币两侧的颜色。

Yet bettors of the coin toss don’t follow that psychology. Books have reported in recent years that tails is often the preferred choice, ranging between 51% and 56% of both the bets placed and the actual handle amount.

然而，硬币抛弃的赌注并不遵循这种心理学。近年来，书籍报告说，尾巴通常是首选的选择，范围为下注和实际手柄量的51％至56％。

The trap many bettors fall

陷阱许多投注者跌倒了