為什麼這麼多人押注超級碗硬幣折騰？

超級碗是美國最大的年度體育賽事，既適合粉絲，又是體育博彩。去年，僅在內華達州的體育博彩上，超過1.85億美元就在超級碗58上下注，而全國估計的估計為230億美元。

The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular bets in sports, despite the fact that there is no way to handicap the outcome. It's a 50/50 proposition, and either heads or tails will come up. So why do so many people wager on something that, in the end, is the equivalent of absolute dumb luck?

超級碗硬幣拋棄是運動中最受歡迎的賭注之一，儘管事實上沒有辦法殘障。這是一個50/50的命題，頭部或尾巴都會出現。那麼，為什麼這麼多人在賭注上，最終等於絕對愚蠢的運氣呢？

Join us as we try to make heads or tails of the psychology and mathematics behind one of the oddest bets in all of sports.

加入我們，試圖在所有體育中最奇怪的賭注之一背後製作心理學和數學的頭或尾巴。

Simplicity and accessibility

簡單性和可訪問性

It’s hard to think of anything in sports betting that gives you a quicker outcome than betting on the coin toss at the Super Bowl. After all, we are talking about something that takes about three seconds from when the coin leaves the hand to when the side facing up is announced.

很難想到體育博彩中的任何東西，這些東西比在超級碗上投擲硬幣的賭注更快。畢竟，我們談論的是，從硬幣離開手到宣布側面的側面時，大約需要三秒鐘的時間。

And it's a 50/50 proposition. It's either going to land heads or tails. Betting on it requires no knowledge of the game. There’s no way you can take a "bad beat" and lose. That means anybody can bet on it, whether it’s a die-hard fan or someone who only watches the game to see the commercials.

這是一個50/50的命題。它要么要著陸或尾巴。投注它不需要遊戲。您不可能採取“不好的節拍”而輸。這意味著任何人都可以賭它，無論它是頑固的粉絲還是只觀看遊戲來看廣告的人。

That’s why, unlike most bets placed in a two-sided market, there’s little to no juice. In fact, bet365 and DraftKings currently have both heads and tails priced at +100. That means they’re not taking a single penny from any of the winning bets. 

這就是為什麼與大多數在雙面市場中放置的賭注不同，幾乎沒有果汁。實際上，Bet365和DraftKings目前的頭和尾巴的價格為+100。這意味著他們不會從任何獲勝的賭注中拿出一分錢。

Though widely available, some areas don't offer this market. In America, it's only in 20 states and Washington, DC. However, it’s offered nearly everywhere in Canada. 

儘管廣泛可用，但有些領域不提供這個市場。在美國，只有20個州和華盛頓特區。但是，在加拿大幾乎所有地方都提供了它。

So, with no juice and limited audiences, why offer it at all? Mainly because it gets people into the action. And when you’re betting on the coin flip, you’re more likely to hang around and bet on other Super Bowl props. And those other wagers are where books make their money.

因此，如果沒有果汁和有限的觀眾，為什麼還要提供它呢？主要是因為它使人們採取行動。而且，當您押注硬幣翻轉時，您更有可能閒逛並押注其他超級碗道具。那些其他下注是書籍賺錢的地方。

The thrill of the unknown

未知的快感

Want to bet on trends? Good luck. Since Super Bowl 51, where tails won for a fourth straight year, there’s been no real trend to go by. Heads has won four of the last seven times, with neither side coming up more than two years in a row. 

想打賭趨勢嗎？祝你好運。由於超級碗51連續第四年獲勝，因此沒有真正的趨勢。 Heads在過去七次中贏得了四次冠軍，兩側都連續兩年超過兩年。

You could go by heads having hit three of the last four years, but doing so would ignore the fact that tails has been the winning side in seven of the last 11 Super Bowls. Then again, 28 of the 58 coin flips have come up heads, with tails being the correct selection the other 30 times. 

在過去的四年中，您可以擊中三年的頭腦，但是這樣做會忽略這樣一個事實，即在過去11個超級碗中，尾巴一直是勝利的一面。再說一次，58個硬幣翻轉中有28個出現了頭，尾巴是另外30次的正確選擇。

And that’s not even addressing the fact that winning the coin toss has little to no bearing on who wins the game itself. While the Kansas City Chiefs have won both the coin toss and the game over each of the last two seasons — heads — the previous eight Super Bowl champions lost the coin flip. 

這甚至沒有解決這樣一個事實，即贏得硬幣擲骰幾乎沒有任何勝利。堪薩斯城酋長隊在過去兩個賽季中的每個賽季中都贏得了硬幣和比賽冠軍 - 前八個超級碗冠軍失去了硬幣翻轉。

Furthermore, only 26 of the 58 Super Bowl champions won the toss. That’s not to mention the AFC has won nine of the last 13 tosses. Want another fun stat? You have to go back to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45 to find the last team from the NFC to win both the coin toss and the game itself.

此外，在58個超級碗冠軍中，只有26個贏得了比賽。更不用說亞足聯贏得了過去13次擲骰中的9場。想要另一個有趣的統計數據嗎？您必須回到超級碗45的綠灣包裝工，以找到NFC的最後一支球隊，以贏得硬幣和比賽本身。

Influence of prop-betting culture

支撐培養的影響

Caesars Sportsbook reported last year that a bettor placed a $100,000 wager on the result of the coin flip, going with the “Tails never fails” mantra. He lost that wager.

凱撒體育博德（Caesars Sportsbook）去年報導說，一名投注者對硬幣翻轉的結果進行了100,000美元的賭注，與“尾巴永不失敗”的咒語進行。他失去了賭注。

But the fact that someone would stake that kind of money on something nobody controls shows just how popular Super Bowl props are. After all, there’s not a sporting event in the entire world that offers more unique props. 

但是，有人會在某些人控制的東西上賺錢的事實表明，超級碗道具的受歡迎程度。畢竟，全世界沒有一個體育賽事提供更多獨特的道具。

Want to bet on the length of the national anthem or America The Beautiful? You can! Do you think you know which song Kendrick Lamar will perform to open the halftime show? Take a shot. But even then, nearly all of these bets can be placed with some handicapping, even if it’s limited, as you can evaluate things such as how the anthem performer has sung the song in the past. The coin toss is chaos.

是否想押注美麗的國歌或美國的長度？你可以！您認為您知道哪首歌Kendrick Lamar會演奏以打開半場表演嗎？開槍。但是，即使那樣，即使是有限的，幾乎所有這些賭注都可以放在一些殘障上，因為您可以評估諸如國歌表演者過去如何演唱這首歌之類的事情。硬幣折騰是混亂。

The psychological appeal

心理吸引力

A 2014 study published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology stated that there’s an overwhelming bias when random individuals are asked to select the outcome of a coin toss. They’re 80% likely to pick whichever option they hear first — whether it’s “heads” or “tails” — or even a color on either side of a coin.

2014年發表在《實驗心理學雜誌》上的一項研究表明，當要求隨機人選擇硬幣折騰的結果時，存在壓倒性的偏見。他們有80％的人可能首先選擇任何選項（無論是“頭”還是“尾巴”），甚至是硬幣兩側的顏色。

Yet bettors of the coin toss don’t follow that psychology. Books have reported in recent years that tails is often the preferred choice, ranging between 51% and 56% of both the bets placed and the actual handle amount.

然而，硬幣拋棄的賭注並不遵循這種心理學。近年來，書籍報告說，尾巴通常是首選的選擇，範圍為下注和實際手柄量的51％至56％。

The trap many bettors fall

陷阱許多投注者跌倒了