正在进行的美国 - 中国贸易战可能会降低美国经济的通货膨胀

自2月初以来，比特币（BTC）下降了近20％

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is likely to bring down inflation in the U.S. economy, key sections of the financial market indicate, offering bullish cues to risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).

持续正在进行的美国 - 中国贸易战争可能会降低美国经济的通货膨胀，这表明金融市场的主要部分表明，为包括比特币（BTC）在内的风险资产提供了看涨线索。

In his inaugural address on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump promised to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens," and then fired the first shot against China, Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Since then, the trade tensions have escalated to such an extent that as of writing, the U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other in excess of 100%.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在1月20日的就职讲话中承诺“关税和税收外国以丰富我们的公民”，然后于2月1日对中国，加拿大和墨西哥发动了第一枪。从那时起，贸易紧张局势升级为以至于在写作中，美国和中国对彼此的重新估计占据了彼此的重视程度。

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which are then passed on to the consumer and could lead to higher general price level in a consumption-driven economy like the U.S.

关税增加了进口商品的成本，然后将其传递给消费者，并可能导致像美国这样的消费驱动经济中的一般价格水平更高

Consequently since the trade war broke out, markets have been worried about a tariffs-led resurgence in the U.S. inflation, with the Fed adding to those concerns through its stagflationary economic projections last month. Stagflation, representing a combination of low growth, high inflation and joblessness, is seen as the worst outcome for riskier assets.

因此，自贸易战爆发以来，市场一直担心以关税为主导的美国通货膨胀率，美联储通过上个月的停滞经济预测加剧了这些担忧。代表低增长，高充气和失业的结合的滞水被视为风险较高的资产结果。

Bitcoin, therefore, has dropped nearly 20% since early February, alongside broad-based risk aversion on Wall Street that has seen investors concurrently dump stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar.

因此，自2月初以来，比特币与华尔街的基于广泛的风险规避相比已下降了近20％，这使投资者同时倾销了股票，债券和美元。

Breakevens suggest disinflation

Breakevens建议解散

However, market-based measures of inflation, such as the breakevens, suggest tariffs could be disinflationary over the long run. In other words, the Fed might be wrong in fearing stagfltion and will soon have a leeway to cut rates.

但是，基于市场的通货膨胀措施（例如Breakevens）表明，从长远来看，关税可能是消除的。换句话说，美联储担心散落的情况可能是错误的，并且很快就会有降低利率的余地。

Inflation breakevens the yields on traditional Treasury bonds with the yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The five-year breakeven inflation rate peaked above 2.6% in early February and has since dropped to 2.32%, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

通货膨胀使传统债券债券的收益率削弱了库存预防证券（TIPS）的收益率。根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行跟踪的数据，五年的盈利通货膨胀率在2月初达到了2.6％的峰值，此后已降至2.32％。

The 10-year breakeven rate has dropped from 2.5% to 2.19%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's expected two-year inflation has held at around 2.6%.

10年的盈亏平衡利率已从2.5％下降到2.19％。同时，克利夫兰的联邦储备银行预期的两年通货膨胀率约为2.6％。

One time cost

一次费用

According to observers, the impact of tariffs, viewed as a one-time cost adjustment, relies on the reactions of other macroeconomic variables and tends to be disinflationary in the long run.

根据观察家的说法，关税的影响（被视为一次性成本调整）依赖于其他宏观经济变量的反应，从长远来看，倾向于消除。

When producers pass the tariff increase onto consumers, inflation levels rise. However, if there is no corresponding increase in income, consumers are compelled to reduce their consumption. This reduction can lead to inventory build-up and ultimately contribute to a decline in the prices of goods and services.

当生产商通过关税增加到消费者时，通货膨胀水平上升。但是，如果收入没有相应的增加，则将被迫减少消费量。这种减少可以导致库存积累，并最终导致商品和服务价格下降。

"Since the days of Smoot-Hawley, Tariffs have never been inflationary. Rather they are Deflationary and "stimulative themselves". Moreover, the disinflation shown in these charts will help encourage the Fed to soon ease as well. The Calvary is coming!," Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter and a Wall Street veteran with four decades of experience, said on X.

“自Smoot-Hawley的日子以来，关税从来都不是通货膨胀。相反，它们是放气和“刺激性的”。此外，这些图表中所示的解散将有助于鼓励美联储很快就会放松。calvary即将到来。

A paper published by American economist Ravi Batra in 2001 made a similar observation, saying, "Tariffs in the US were never associated with rising prices, and trade liberalization with declining prices. High tariffs were always followed by sharp drops in the cost of living. tariffs produce inflation only in nonmarket or ualistic developing economies, but not inadvanced economies."

美国经济学家拉维·巴特拉（Ravi Batra）在2001年发表的一篇论文也是一个类似的观察结果，他说：“美国的关税从来没有与价格上涨有关，而且价格下降的贸易自由化。高关税总是在生活成本中急剧下降。关税仅在非市场或不利的经济体中产生通货膨胀，但不加富含经济体。”

All things considered, the recent financial market turbulence likely resulted from growth fears rather than inflation. The bull could soon reemerge in anticipation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

考虑到所有因素，最近的金融市场动荡可能是由于增长的恐惧而不是通货膨胀而引起的。公牛可能很快就会再次出现美联储的肮脏立场。