正在進行的美國 - 中國貿易戰可能會降低美國經濟的通貨膨脹

自2月初以來，比特幣（BTC）下降了近20％

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is likely to bring down inflation in the U.S. economy, key sections of the financial market indicate, offering bullish cues to risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).

持續正在進行的美國 - 中國貿易戰爭可能會降低美國經濟的通貨膨脹，這表明金融市場的主要部分錶明，為包括比特幣（BTC）在內的風險資產提供了看漲線索。

In his inaugural address on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump promised to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens," and then fired the first shot against China, Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Since then, the trade tensions have escalated to such an extent that as of writing, the U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other in excess of 100%.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在1月20日的就職講話中承諾“關稅和稅收外國以豐富我們的公民”，然後於2月1日對中國，加拿大和墨西哥發動了第一槍。從那時起，貿易緊張局勢升級為以至於在寫作中，美國和中國對彼此的重新估計佔據了彼此的重視程度。

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which are then passed on to the consumer and could lead to higher general price level in a consumption-driven economy like the U.S.

關稅增加了進口商品的成本，然後將其傳遞給消費者，並可能導致像美國這樣的消費驅動經濟中的一般價格水平更高

Consequently since the trade war broke out, markets have been worried about a tariffs-led resurgence in the U.S. inflation, with the Fed adding to those concerns through its stagflationary economic projections last month. Stagflation, representing a combination of low growth, high inflation and joblessness, is seen as the worst outcome for riskier assets.

因此，自貿易戰爆發以來，市場一直擔心以關稅為主導的美國通貨膨脹率，美聯儲通過上個月的停滯經濟預測加劇了這些擔憂。代表低增長，高充氣和失業的結合的滯水被視為風險較高的資產結果。

Bitcoin, therefore, has dropped nearly 20% since early February, alongside broad-based risk aversion on Wall Street that has seen investors concurrently dump stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar.

因此，自2月初以來，比特幣與華爾街的基於廣泛的風險規避相比已下降了近20％，這使投資者同時傾銷了股票，債券和美元。

Breakevens suggest disinflation

Breakevens建議解散

However, market-based measures of inflation, such as the breakevens, suggest tariffs could be disinflationary over the long run. In other words, the Fed might be wrong in fearing stagfltion and will soon have a leeway to cut rates.

但是，基於市場的通貨膨脹措施（例如Breakevens）表明，從長遠來看，關稅可能是消除的。換句話說，美聯儲擔心散落的情況可能是錯誤的，並且很快就會有降低利率的餘地。

Inflation breakevens the yields on traditional Treasury bonds with the yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The five-year breakeven inflation rate peaked above 2.6% in early February and has since dropped to 2.32%, according to data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

通貨膨脹使傳統債券債券的收益率削弱了庫存預防證券（TIPS）的收益率。根據聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行跟踪的數據，五年的盈利通貨膨脹率在2月初達到了2.6％的峰值，此後已降至2.32％。

The 10-year breakeven rate has dropped from 2.5% to 2.19%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's expected two-year inflation has held at around 2.6%.

10年的盈虧平衡利率已從2.5％下降到2.19％。同時，克利夫蘭的聯邦儲備銀行預期的兩年通貨膨脹率約為2.6％。

One time cost

一次費用

According to observers, the impact of tariffs, viewed as a one-time cost adjustment, relies on the reactions of other macroeconomic variables and tends to be disinflationary in the long run.

根據觀察家的說法，關稅的影響（被視為一次性成本調整）依賴於其他宏觀經濟變量的反應，從長遠來看，傾向於消除。

When producers pass the tariff increase onto consumers, inflation levels rise. However, if there is no corresponding increase in income, consumers are compelled to reduce their consumption. This reduction can lead to inventory build-up and ultimately contribute to a decline in the prices of goods and services.

當生產商通過關稅增加到消費者時，通貨膨脹水平上升。但是，如果收入沒有相應的增加，則將被迫減少消費量。這種減少可以導致庫存積累，並最終導致商品和服務價格下降。

"Since the days of Smoot-Hawley, Tariffs have never been inflationary. Rather they are Deflationary and "stimulative themselves". Moreover, the disinflation shown in these charts will help encourage the Fed to soon ease as well. The Calvary is coming!," Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter and a Wall Street veteran with four decades of experience, said on X.

“自Smoot-Hawley的日子以來，關稅從來都不是通貨膨脹。相反，它們是放氣和“刺激性的”。此外，這些圖表中所示的解散將有助於鼓勵美聯儲很快就會放鬆。calvary即將到來。

A paper published by American economist Ravi Batra in 2001 made a similar observation, saying, "Tariffs in the US were never associated with rising prices, and trade liberalization with declining prices. High tariffs were always followed by sharp drops in the cost of living. tariffs produce inflation only in nonmarket or ualistic developing economies, but not inadvanced economies."

美國經濟學家拉維·巴特拉（Ravi Batra）在2001年發表的一篇論文也是一個類似的觀察結果，他說：“美國的關稅從來沒有與價格上漲有關，而且價格下降的貿易自由化。高關稅總是在生活成本中急劇下降。關稅僅在非市場或不利的經濟體中產生通貨膨脹，但不加富含經濟體。”

All things considered, the recent financial market turbulence likely resulted from growth fears rather than inflation. The bull could soon reemerge in anticipation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

考慮到所有因素，最近的金融市場動盪可能是由於增長的恐懼而不是通貨膨脹而引起的。公牛可能很快就會再次出現美聯儲的骯髒立場。