NVIDIA仍然是创新的市场领导者，但其目前的估值可能会谨慎对待寻求安全余地的投资者

NVIDIA CORP（NASDAQ：NVDA）是一款以其图形处理单元和AI创新而闻名的技术巨人，仍然是投资者的重点。

Technology behemoth NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), renowned for its prowess in graphics processing units and AI innovations, continues to captivate investors. As of January 13, 2025, the GuruFocus Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculator pegs NVIDIA’s intrinsic value at $81.09 per share. With the stock currently trading at $135.91, this translates to a margin of safety of -67.6%, indicating modest overvaluation based on the DCF model. Let’s delve into the details of this valuation.

技术庞然大物NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ：NVDA）以其图形处理单元和AI创新的能力而闻名，继续吸引投资者。截至2025年1月13日，Gurufocus打折现金流（DCF）计算器PEGS NVIDIA的内在价值为每股81.09美元。股票目前的交易价格为135.91美元，这意味着一个安全幅度为-67.6％，表明基于DCF模型的高估。让我们深入研究这一估值的细节。

Understanding the GuruFocus DCF Model While most DCF models utilize free cash flow, GuruFocus employs a slightly different approach by using EPS without Non-Recurring Items (NRI) instead. This adjustment stems from research indicating a stronger correlation between stock prices and earnings compared to free cash flow, making this model a valuable alternative for valuation.

了解Gurufocus DCF模型虽然大多数DCF模型都利用自由现金流，但Gurufocus通过使用没有非重新调查项目（NRI）的EPS采用了一种略有不同的方法。这种调整源于研究表明，与自由现金流相比，股票价格和收益之间的相关性更强，这使该模型成为估值的宝贵替代方案。

Critical Assumptions in the Analysis The intrinsic value calculation is premised on the following critical assumptions and inputs:

分析中的关键假设固有值计算是基于以下关键假设和输入的：

EPS without NRI

没有NRI的EP

Discount Rate

贴现率

Growth Stage Assumptions

成长阶段的假设

Terminal Stage Assumptions

终端阶段假设

Breaking Down the Valuation Growth Stage Contribution: The growth stage encompasses the period of accelerated company growth. Based on the assumptions stated above, the intrinsic value derived from this stage amounts to $121.85.

分解估值增长阶段的贡献：增长阶段涵盖了加速公司增长的时期。根据上述假设，从此阶段得出的内在值为$ 121.85。

Terminal Stage Contribution: As NVIDIA’s growth stabilizes, the terminal stage contributes an additional $203.31 to its intrinsic value.

终端阶段的贡献：随着NVIDIA的生长稳定，末端阶段为其内在价值贡献了203.31美元。

Final Intrinsic Value: Combining these components, the calculated intrinsic value is:

最终固有值：结合这些组件，计算出的内在值为：

Intrinsic Value = Growth Stage + Terminal Stage = $81.09

内在值=增长阶段 +终端阶段= $ 81.09

Comparison with Market Price At $135.91, NVIDIA’s current trading price substantially exceeds its DCF-calculated intrinsic value, highlighting a potential overvaluation. The margin of safety is -67.6%, suggesting limited upside for value-focused investors.

与市场价格相比，NVIDIA目前的交易价格显着超过了其DCF估计的内在价值，这突出了潜在的高估。安全余量为-67.6％，表明以价值为中心的投资者有限。

An Alternative Valuation: DCF Based on Free Cash Flow Using the traditional DCF approach with trailing twelve-month Free Cash Flow per Share (FCF), NVIDIA’s intrinsic value is estimated at $71.13. This valuation also implies overvaluation, with a margin of safety of -91.07%.

替代估值：基于自由现金流的DCF使用传统的DCF方法，其终于十二个月的每股自由现金流（FCF），NVIDIA的内在价值估计为71.13美元。该估值也意味着高估，安全余量为-91.07％。

Key Takeaways for Investors The DCF model is a powerful tool for valuation, but its accuracy depends on the validity of assumptions. NVIDIA’s valuation showcases the importance of:

对于投资者而言，DCF模型是估值的强大工具，但其准确性取决于假设的有效性。 NVIDIA的估值展示了：

Screening for Opportunities: Utilize the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener to identify undervalued stocks. Focus on companies with high Predictability Ranks trading below their DCF intrinsic values, whether based on earnings or free cash flow. Such companies often present compelling opportunities for long-term investors.

筛选机会：利用Gurufocus多合一的筛选器来识别低估的股票。专注于具有高可预测性的公司，无论是基于收益还是自由现金流，都低于其DCF内在价值的交易。这样的公司经常为长期投资者提供令人信服的机会。

While NVIDIA remains a market leader in innovation, its current valuation may warrant caution for investors seeking a margin of safety. The DCF analysis offers a systematic approach to assess whether the stock aligns with your investment criteria. For those looking to uncover undervalued gems, tools like the GuruFocus screener can be invaluable.

尽管NVIDIA仍然是创新的市场领导者，但其目前的估值可能会谨慎对待寻求安全余地的投资者。 DCF分析提供了一种系统的方法来评估股票是否与您的投资标准保持一致。对于那些希望发现被低估的宝石的人来说，诸如Gurufocus筛选器之类的工具是无价的。