NVIDIA仍然是創新的市場領導者，但其目前的估值可能會謹慎對待尋求安全餘地的投資者

NVIDIA CORP（NASDAQ：NVDA）是一款以其圖形處理單元和AI創新而聞名的技術巨人，仍然是投資者的重點。

Technology behemoth NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), renowned for its prowess in graphics processing units and AI innovations, continues to captivate investors. As of January 13, 2025, the GuruFocus Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculator pegs NVIDIA’s intrinsic value at $81.09 per share. With the stock currently trading at $135.91, this translates to a margin of safety of -67.6%, indicating modest overvaluation based on the DCF model. Let’s delve into the details of this valuation.

技術龐然大物NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ：NVDA）以其圖形處理單元和AI創新的能力而聞名，繼續吸引投資者。截至2025年1月13日，Gurufocus打折現金流（DCF）計算器PEGS NVIDIA的內在價值為每股81.09美元。股票目前的交易價格為135.91美元，這意味著一個安全幅度為-67.6％，表明基於DCF模型的高估。讓我們深入研究這一估值的細節。

Understanding the GuruFocus DCF Model While most DCF models utilize free cash flow, GuruFocus employs a slightly different approach by using EPS without Non-Recurring Items (NRI) instead. This adjustment stems from research indicating a stronger correlation between stock prices and earnings compared to free cash flow, making this model a valuable alternative for valuation.

了解Gurufocus DCF模型雖然大多數DCF模型都利用自由現金流，但Gurufocus通過使用沒有非重新調查項目（NRI）的EPS採用了一種略有不同的方法。這種調整源於研究表明，與自由現金流相比，股票價格和收益之間的相關性更強，這使該模型成為估值的寶貴替代方案。

Critical Assumptions in the Analysis The intrinsic value calculation is premised on the following critical assumptions and inputs:

分析中的關鍵假設固有值計算是基於以下關鍵假設和輸入的：

EPS without NRI

沒有NRI的EP

Discount Rate

貼現率

Growth Stage Assumptions

成長階段的假設

Terminal Stage Assumptions

終端階段假設

Breaking Down the Valuation Growth Stage Contribution: The growth stage encompasses the period of accelerated company growth. Based on the assumptions stated above, the intrinsic value derived from this stage amounts to $121.85.

分解估值增長階段的貢獻：增長階段涵蓋了加速公司增長的時期。根據上述假設，從此階段得出的內在值為$ 121.85。

Terminal Stage Contribution: As NVIDIA’s growth stabilizes, the terminal stage contributes an additional $203.31 to its intrinsic value.

終端階段的貢獻：隨著NVIDIA的生長穩定，末端階段為其內在價值貢獻了203.31美元。

Final Intrinsic Value: Combining these components, the calculated intrinsic value is:

最終固有值：結合這些組件，計算出的內在值為：

Intrinsic Value = Growth Stage + Terminal Stage = $81.09

內在值=增長階段 +終端階段= $ 81.09

Comparison with Market Price At $135.91, NVIDIA’s current trading price substantially exceeds its DCF-calculated intrinsic value, highlighting a potential overvaluation. The margin of safety is -67.6%, suggesting limited upside for value-focused investors.

與市場價格相比，NVIDIA目前的交易價格顯著超過了其DCF估計的內在價值，這突出了潛在的高估。安全餘量為-67.6％，表明以價值為中心的投資者有限。

An Alternative Valuation: DCF Based on Free Cash Flow Using the traditional DCF approach with trailing twelve-month Free Cash Flow per Share (FCF), NVIDIA’s intrinsic value is estimated at $71.13. This valuation also implies overvaluation, with a margin of safety of -91.07%.

替代估值：基於自由現金流的DCF使用傳統的DCF方法，其終於十二個月的每股自由現金流（FCF），NVIDIA的內在價值估計為71.13美元。該估值也意味著高估，安全餘量為-91.07％。

Key Takeaways for Investors The DCF model is a powerful tool for valuation, but its accuracy depends on the validity of assumptions. NVIDIA’s valuation showcases the importance of:

對於投資者而言，DCF模型是估值的強大工具，但其準確性取決於假設的有效性。 NVIDIA的估值展示了：

Screening for Opportunities: Utilize the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener to identify undervalued stocks. Focus on companies with high Predictability Ranks trading below their DCF intrinsic values, whether based on earnings or free cash flow. Such companies often present compelling opportunities for long-term investors.

篩選機會：利用Gurufocus多合一的篩選器來識別低估的股票。專注於具有高可預測性的公司，無論是基於收益還是自由現金流，都低於其DCF內在價值的交易。這樣的公司經常為長期投資者提供令人信服的機會。

While NVIDIA remains a market leader in innovation, its current valuation may warrant caution for investors seeking a margin of safety. The DCF analysis offers a systematic approach to assess whether the stock aligns with your investment criteria. For those looking to uncover undervalued gems, tools like the GuruFocus screener can be invaluable.

儘管NVIDIA仍然是創新的市場領導者，但其目前的估值可能會謹慎對待尋求安全餘地的投資者。 DCF分析提供了一種系統的方法來評估股票是否與您的投資標准保持一致。對於那些希望發現被低估的寶石的人來說，諸如Gurufocus篩選器之類的工具是無價的。