芥末种子：一篇论文，即比特币到2035年将达到每枚硬币1000万美元

严格的编辑政策，侧重于准确性，相关性和公正性

A new publication from Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained, arrives at a striking price target for Bitcoin: $10 million per coin by 2035.

Unchained市场研究总监Joe Burnett的新出版物达到了比特币的惊人价格目标：到2035年，每枚硬币1000万美元。

This analysis, launched in the inaugural issue of The Mustard Seed—a new quarterly letter focusing on the long view of time arbitrage—examines where Bitcoin, technology, and human civilization could stand a decade from now.

这项分析是在芥末种子的首个问题上发起的，这是一封新的季度信件，重点是长期套利的套利 - 比特币，技术和人类文明从现在开始可以持续十年。

Two principal transformations, as Burnett describes them, are setting the stage for an unprecedented migration of global capital into the Bitcoin asset class. The first is the “Great Flow of Capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity. The second is the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” as AI and robotics reshape entire industries.

正如伯内特（Burnett）所描述的那样，两个主要的转型正在为全球资本前所未有的迁移到比特币资产类别的阶段。首先是“大量资本”进入具有绝对稀缺性的资产。第二个是AI和机器人重塑整个行业的“通气技术的加速”。

Most economic commentary tends to zoom in on the next earnings report or the immediate implications of Fed rate hikes. The Mustard Seed, however, announces its own mission:

大多数经济评论倾向于缩小下一份收益报告或美联储息息日的直接影响。但是，芥末种子宣布了自己的使命：

“Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus. We aim to highlight investment opportunities that span multi-year cycles, focusing on the underlying trends that will shape the future of finance, technology, and human civilization.”

“与下一季度或明年固定的大多数财务评论不同，这封信持续了很长的看法，在达成共识之前就确定了深刻的转变。我们的目标是强调跨越多年周期的投资机会，重点关注将影响金融，技术和人类文明的未来的潜在趋势。”

At the outset of this analysis, Burnett notes that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

伯内特（Burnett）在这项分析开始时指出，全球金融体系（总资产总计约为900万亿美元），即持续存在“稀释或贬值”的风险。债券，货币，股票，黄金和房地产具有扩展或通货膨胀组成部分，侵蚀了其价值储存功能。

This capital, Burnett says, is “searching for a lower potential energy state,” likening the process to water cascading down a waterfall. In essence, all pre-Bitcoin asset classes were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Wealth managers could distribute capital among real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks, but each category carried a mechanism by which its real value could erode.

伯内特说，这一首都正在“寻找较低的势能状态”，将其比喻为淹没瀑布的过程。从本质上讲，所有比替币资产类别实际上都是“开放赏金”，以稀释或贬值。财富经理可以在房地产，债券，黄金或股票之间分配资本，但是每个类别都具有一种机制，其实际价值可能会侵蚀。

Enter Bitcoin, with its 21-million-coin hard cap. To Burnett, this is the first monetary instrument that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, can directly translate into price appreciation. As Michael Saylor has said:

输入比特币，并带有其2100万Coin硬帽。对于伯内特来说，这是第一个无法从内部稀释或贬值的货币工具。供应是固定的；需求，如果增长，可以直接转化为价格升值。正如迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）所说：

“Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation. But with bitcoin, an asset class arrived that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Relative to other assets, bitcoin is quickly absorbing capital and displaying superior investment returns over multi-year periods.”

“资本自然会寻求最低的势能状态，只是水流下坡时。在比特币之前，财富并没有真正摆脱稀释或贬值。在每个资产类别中存储的财富都充当市场赏金，激励稀释或贬值。但是有了比特币，资产类别到达，无法从内部稀释或贬值。相对于其他资产，比特币正在迅速吸收资本，并在多年内显示出卓越的投资回报。”

As soon as Bitcoin was recognized, the game changed for capital allocation. It’s like discovering a vast untapped reservoir far below existing water basins—the global wealth supply found a new outlet, one that cannot be augmented or diluted.

一旦获得比特币，游戏就会改变资本分配。这就像发现一个远低于现有水盆的巨大尚未开发的水库一样，全球财富供应发现了一个新的出口，该供应网络无法增强或稀释。

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, The Mustard Seed uses the halving cycles as a point of reference. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—like Niagara Falls at full force. Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which is closer to halving the Falls’ flow several times until it is significantly reduced. By 2.65, newly minted Bitcoin supply will be nearly negligible compared to its total volume, like the waterfall reduced to a trickle.

为了说明比特币的独特供应动力学，芥末种子使用减半周期作为参考点。 2009年，矿工每街区获得50 BTC，例如尼亚加拉跌落到全力以赴。如今，奖励降至3.125 BTC，它更接近将瀑布的流量减半，直到大幅减少。到2.65，与总量相比，新近铸造的比特币供应几乎可以忽略不计，例如瀑布减少到trick流。

Of course, attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption often rely on assumptions. Two models suggest an average annual return of 26% for BTC over the next decade, setting price targets around $1.8 million (Power Law Model) and $2.1 million (Saylor’s Bitcoin model, used in this analysis), both by 2035.

当然，量化比特币全球采用的尝试通常取决于假设。两种模型表明，在未来十年中，BTC的平均年收益为26％，将价格目标定为180万美元（Power Law Model）和210万美元（在此分析中使用的Saylor的比特币模型），均为2035年。

However, these projections might be a bit too conservative since they assume diminishing returns. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

但是，这些预测可能有点过于保守，因为它们假设回报率降低。在加速技术采用以及对比特币特性越来越多的实现的世界中，价格目标可能会大大超过这些模型。

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant. By 2035, Burnett believes global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions.

比特币上升潜力的第二个主要催化剂是AI，自动化和机器人技术带来的通缩波。这些创新迅速提高生产率，降低成本并使商品和服务更加丰富。到2035年，伯内特（Burnett）认为，多个关键部门的全球成本可能会大幅减少。

For instance, Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from six months to a few days. With the scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines, we could see manufacturing costs slash by 10x. 3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper. Autonomous ride-hailing can potentially reduce fares by 90% by removing labor costs and improving efficiency.

例如，阿迪达斯（Adidas）的“ SpeedFactories”将运动鞋的产量从六个月降低到几天。随着3D打印和AI驱动装配线的缩放，我们可以看到制造成本削减10倍。 3D打印的房屋的成本较低，已经更快地上升了50倍。先进的供应链自动化，再加上AI物流，可以使高质量的外壳便宜10倍。自动乘车租车可能会通过消除人工成本和提高效率来减少90％的票价。

However, Burnett notes that, under a fiat system, natural deflation is often “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering

但是，伯内特指出，在菲亚特系统下，自然放气通常被“人为地抑制”。货币政策（例如持续的通货膨胀和刺激），掩盖了技术对降低的真正影响