The Mustard Seed: A Thesis That Bitcoin Will Reach $10M per Coin by 2035

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A new publication from Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained, arrives at a striking price target for Bitcoin: $10 million per coin by 2035.

This analysis, launched in the inaugural issue of The Mustard Seed—a new quarterly letter focusing on the long view of time arbitrage—examines where Bitcoin, technology, and human civilization could stand a decade from now.

Two principal transformations, as Burnett describes them, are setting the stage for an unprecedented migration of global capital into the Bitcoin asset class. The first is the “Great Flow of Capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity. The second is the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” as AI and robotics reshape entire industries.

Most economic commentary tends to zoom in on the next earnings report or the immediate implications of Fed rate hikes. The Mustard Seed, however, announces its own mission:

“Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus. We aim to highlight investment opportunities that span multi-year cycles, focusing on the underlying trends that will shape the future of finance, technology, and human civilization.”

At the outset of this analysis, Burnett notes that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

This capital, Burnett says, is “searching for a lower potential energy state,” likening the process to water cascading down a waterfall. In essence, all pre-Bitcoin asset classes were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Wealth managers could distribute capital among real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks, but each category carried a mechanism by which its real value could erode.

Enter Bitcoin, with its 21-million-coin hard cap. To Burnett, this is the first monetary instrument that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, can directly translate into price appreciation. As Michael Saylor has said:

“Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation. But with bitcoin, an asset class arrived that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Relative to other assets, bitcoin is quickly absorbing capital and displaying superior investment returns over multi-year periods.”

As soon as Bitcoin was recognized, the game changed for capital allocation. It’s like discovering a vast untapped reservoir far below existing water basins—the global wealth supply found a new outlet, one that cannot be augmented or diluted.

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, The Mustard Seed uses the halving cycles as a point of reference. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—like Niagara Falls at full force. Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which is closer to halving the Falls’ flow several times until it is significantly reduced. By 2.65, newly minted Bitcoin supply will be nearly negligible compared to its total volume, like the waterfall reduced to a trickle.

Of course, attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption often rely on assumptions. Two models suggest an average annual return of 26% for BTC over the next decade, setting price targets around $1.8 million (Power Law Model) and $2.1 million (Saylor’s Bitcoin model, used in this analysis), both by 2035.

However, these projections might be a bit too conservative since they assume diminishing returns. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant. By 2035, Burnett believes global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions.

For instance, Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from six months to a few days. With the scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines, we could see manufacturing costs slash by 10x. 3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper. Autonomous ride-hailing can potentially reduce fares by 90% by removing labor costs and improving efficiency.

However, Burnett notes that, under a fiat system, natural deflation is often “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering