芥末種子：一篇論文，即比特幣到2035年將達到每枚硬幣1000萬美元

嚴格的編輯政策，側重於準確性，相關性和公正性

A new publication from Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained, arrives at a striking price target for Bitcoin: $10 million per coin by 2035.

Unchained市場研究總監Joe Burnett的新出版物達到了比特幣的驚人價格目標：到2035年，每枚硬幣1000萬美元。

This analysis, launched in the inaugural issue of The Mustard Seed—a new quarterly letter focusing on the long view of time arbitrage—examines where Bitcoin, technology, and human civilization could stand a decade from now.

這項分析是在芥末種子的首個問題上發起的，這是一封新的季度信件，重點是長期套利的套利 - 比特幣，技術和人類文明從現在開始可以持續十年。

Two principal transformations, as Burnett describes them, are setting the stage for an unprecedented migration of global capital into the Bitcoin asset class. The first is the “Great Flow of Capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity. The second is the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” as AI and robotics reshape entire industries.

正如伯內特（Burnett）所描述的那樣，兩個主要的轉型正在為全球資本前所未有的遷移到比特幣資產類別的階段。首先是“大量資本”進入具有絕對稀缺性的資產。第二個是AI和機器人重塑整個行業的“通氣技術的加速”。

Most economic commentary tends to zoom in on the next earnings report or the immediate implications of Fed rate hikes. The Mustard Seed, however, announces its own mission:

大多數經濟評論傾向於縮小下一份收益報告或美聯儲息息日的直接影響。但是，芥末種子宣布了自己的使命：

“Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus. We aim to highlight investment opportunities that span multi-year cycles, focusing on the underlying trends that will shape the future of finance, technology, and human civilization.”

“與下一季度或明年固定的大多數財務評論不同，這封信持續了很長的看法，在達成共識之前就確定了深刻的轉變。我們的目標是強調跨越多年周期的投資機會，重點關注將影響金融，技術和人類文明的未來的潛在趨勢。”

At the outset of this analysis, Burnett notes that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

伯內特（Burnett）在這項分析開始時指出，全球金融體系（總資產總計約為900萬億美元），即持續存在“稀釋或貶值”的風險。債券，貨幣，股票，黃金和房地產具有擴展或通貨膨脹組成部分，侵蝕了其價值儲存功能。

This capital, Burnett says, is “searching for a lower potential energy state,” likening the process to water cascading down a waterfall. In essence, all pre-Bitcoin asset classes were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Wealth managers could distribute capital among real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks, but each category carried a mechanism by which its real value could erode.

伯內特說，這一首都正在“尋找較低的勢能狀態”，將其比喻為淹沒瀑布的過程。從本質上講，所有比替幣資產類別實際上都是“開放賞金”，以稀釋或貶值。財富經理可以在房地產，債券，黃金或股票之間分配資本，但是每個類別都具有一種機制，其實際價值可能會侵蝕。

Enter Bitcoin, with its 21-million-coin hard cap. To Burnett, this is the first monetary instrument that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, can directly translate into price appreciation. As Michael Saylor has said:

輸入比特幣，並帶有其2100萬Coin硬帽。對於伯內特來說，這是第一個無法從內部稀釋或貶值的貨幣工具。供應是固定的；需求，如果增長，可以直接轉化為價格升值。正如邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）所說：

“Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation. But with bitcoin, an asset class arrived that cannot be diluted or devalued from within. Relative to other assets, bitcoin is quickly absorbing capital and displaying superior investment returns over multi-year periods.”

“資本自然會尋求最低的勢能狀態，只是水流下坡時。在比特幣之前，財富並沒有真正擺脫稀釋或貶值。在每個資產類別中存儲的財富都充當市場賞金，激勵稀釋或貶值。但是有了比特幣，資產類別到達，無法從內部稀釋或貶值。相對於其他資產，比特幣正在迅速吸收資本，並在多年內顯示出卓越的投資回報。”

As soon as Bitcoin was recognized, the game changed for capital allocation. It’s like discovering a vast untapped reservoir far below existing water basins—the global wealth supply found a new outlet, one that cannot be augmented or diluted.

一旦獲得比特幣，遊戲就會改變資本分配。這就像發現一個遠低於現有水盆的巨大尚未開發的水庫一樣，全球財富供應發現了一個新的出口，該供應網絡無法增強或稀釋。

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, The Mustard Seed uses the halving cycles as a point of reference. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—like Niagara Falls at full force. Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which is closer to halving the Falls’ flow several times until it is significantly reduced. By 2.65, newly minted Bitcoin supply will be nearly negligible compared to its total volume, like the waterfall reduced to a trickle.

為了說明比特幣的獨特供應動力學，芥末種子使用減半週期作為參考點。 2009年，礦工每街區獲得50 BTC，例如尼亞加拉跌落到全力以赴。如今，獎勵降至3.125 BTC，它更接近將瀑布的流量減半，直到大幅減少。到2.65，與總量相比，新近鑄造的比特幣供應幾乎可以忽略不計，例如瀑布減少到trick流。

Of course, attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption often rely on assumptions. Two models suggest an average annual return of 26% for BTC over the next decade, setting price targets around $1.8 million (Power Law Model) and $2.1 million (Saylor’s Bitcoin model, used in this analysis), both by 2035.

當然，量化比特幣全球採用的嘗試通常取決於假設。兩種模型表明，在未來十年中，BTC的平均年收益為26％，將價格目標定為180萬美元（Power Law Model）和210萬美元（在此分析中使用的Saylor的比特幣模型），均為2035年。

However, these projections might be a bit too conservative since they assume diminishing returns. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

但是，這些預測可能有點過於保守，因為它們假設回報率降低。在加速技術採用以及對比特幣特性越來越多的實現的世界中，價格目標可能會大大超過這些模型。

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant. By 2035, Burnett believes global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions.

比特幣上升潛力的第二個主要催化劑是AI，自動化和機器人技術帶來的通縮波。這些創新迅速提高生產率，降低成本並使商品和服務更加豐富。到2035年，伯內特（Burnett）認為，多個關鍵部門的全球成本可能會大幅減少。

For instance, Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from six months to a few days. With the scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines, we could see manufacturing costs slash by 10x. 3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper. Autonomous ride-hailing can potentially reduce fares by 90% by removing labor costs and improving efficiency.

例如，阿迪達斯（Adidas）的“ SpeedFactories”將運動鞋的產量從六個月降低到幾天。隨著3D打印和AI驅動裝配線的縮放，我們可以看到製造成本削減10倍。 3D打印的房屋的成本較低，已經更快地上升了50倍。先進的供應鏈自動化，再加上AI物流，可以使高質量的外殼便宜10倍。自動乘車租車可能會通過消除人工成本和提高效率來減少90％的票價。

However, Burnett notes that, under a fiat system, natural deflation is often “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering

但是，伯內特指出，在菲亞特系統下，自然放氣通常被“人為地抑制”。貨幣政策（例如持續的通貨膨脹和刺激），掩蓋了技術對降低的真正影響