MOVE 指数对比特币和标准普尔 500 指数发出警告信号

加密货币市场以其快速发展而闻名，如果您对此有任何疑问，只需看看情绪如何在短短 24 小时内转向看跌即可。

Crypto market sentiment has flipped bearish over the past 24 hours, and there's a good reason for it. Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 are forming a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, which is coinciding with a change in the market dynamic that fueled the post-election surge in both assets.

过去 24 小时内，加密货币市场情绪转为看跌，这是有充分理由的。比特币（BTC）和标准普尔 500 指数正在形成头肩顶形态，这与市场动态的变化相吻合，推动了这两种资产在选举后的飙升。

We're specifically referring to the MOVE index, or the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index, which measures expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market.

我们特指 MOVE 指数，即美林期权波动率估计指数，该指数衡量美国国债市场 30 天的预期波动率。

As the second-largest financial market globally, after currencies, volatility in the fixed-income market, especially in Treasury notes, often leads to tighter financial conditions. It can trigger risk aversion across all corners of the financial markets.

作为仅次于货币的全球第二大金融市场，固定收益市场（尤其是国债）的波动往往会导致金融状况趋紧。它可以引发金融市场各个角落的风险厌恶情绪。

And unfortunately for crypto bulls, the MOVE index is rising, having bottomed out in mid-December near 82, according to charting platform TradingView. On Tuesday, the index climbed to 102.78 after hotter-than-expected manufacturing data indicated a robust economy and persistent inflation, resulting in higher Treasury yields.

不幸的是，根据图表平台 TradingView 的数据，对于加密货币多头来说，MOVE 指数正在上涨，已于 12 月中旬触底，接近 82。周二，好于预期的制造业数据表明经济强劲且通胀持续，导致国债收益率走高，该指数攀升至102.78。

Specifically, the yield on the 30-year note rose to 4.92%, the highest since Nov. 23, and the 10-year yield jumped to 4.68%, the highest since May.

具体来说，30年期国债收益率升至4.92%，创11月23日以来最高水平，10年期国债收益率跃升至4.68%，创5月以来最高水平。

Interestingly, BTC fell 5% to $96,900 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 declined by over 1%. The post-U.S. election uptrend in both assets lost momentum in mid-December, coinciding with the bottom in the MOVE index, as shown below.

有趣的是，比特币周二下跌 5% 至 96,900 美元，而标准普尔 500 指数下跌超过 1%。美国大选后这两种资产的上涨趋势在 12 月中旬失去了动力，与 MOVE 指数的底部一致，如下所示。

The MOVE index collapsed following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5, which helped ease financial conditions for risk assets, leading to impressive gains into the year-end. However, both BTC and the S&P 500 faced challenges when the MOVE index began to shift in mid-December.

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月 5 日举行的美国大选中获胜后，MOVE 指数暴跌，这有助于缓解风险资产的财务状况，导致年底取得令人印象深刻的涨幅。然而，当 MOVE 指数在 12 月中旬开始发生变化时，BTC 和标准普尔 500 指数都面临挑战。

The key takeaway is that bonds are driving the broader market narrative. A bullish turnaround in risk assets likely requires the Treasury market to stabilize.

关键要点是债券正在推动更广泛的市场叙事。风险资产的看涨转变可能需要国债市场企稳。

Currently, with the MOVE index trending upwards, the likelihood of bitcoin and the S&P 500 completing their respective head-and-shoulders bearish reversal patterns appears high.

目前，随着MOVE指数呈上升趋势，比特币和标准普尔500指数完成各自头肩顶看跌反转模式的可能性似乎很高。