MOVE 指數對比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數發出警訊

加密貨幣市場以其快速發展而聞名，如果您對此有任何疑問，只需看看情緒如何在短短 24 小時內轉向看跌。

Crypto market sentiment has flipped bearish over the past 24 hours, and there's a good reason for it. Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 are forming a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, which is coinciding with a change in the market dynamic that fueled the post-election surge in both assets.

過去 24 小時內，加密貨幣市場情緒轉為看跌，這是有充分理由的。比特幣（BTC）和標準普爾 500 指數正在形成頭肩頂形態，這與市場動態的變化相吻合，推動了這兩種資產在選舉後的飆升。

We're specifically referring to the MOVE index, or the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index, which measures expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market.

我們特別指 MOVE 指數，即美林選擇權波動率估計指數，該指數衡量美國公債市場 30 天的預期波動性。

As the second-largest financial market globally, after currencies, volatility in the fixed-income market, especially in Treasury notes, often leads to tighter financial conditions. It can trigger risk aversion across all corners of the financial markets.

作為僅次於貨幣的全球第二大金融市場，固定收益市場（尤其是國債）的波動往往會導致金融狀況趨緊。它可以引發金融市場各個角落的風險厭惡情緒。

And unfortunately for crypto bulls, the MOVE index is rising, having bottomed out in mid-December near 82, according to charting platform TradingView. On Tuesday, the index climbed to 102.78 after hotter-than-expected manufacturing data indicated a robust economy and persistent inflation, resulting in higher Treasury yields.

不幸的是，根據圖表平台 TradingView 的數據，對於加密貨幣多頭來說，MOVE 指數正在上漲，已於 12 月中旬觸底，接近 82。週二，優於預期的製造業數據顯示經濟強勁且通膨持續，導致國債殖利率走高，該指數攀升至102.78。

Specifically, the yield on the 30-year note rose to 4.92%, the highest since Nov. 23, and the 10-year yield jumped to 4.68%, the highest since May.

具體來說，30年期公債殖利率升至4.92%，創11月23日以來最高水平，10年期公債殖利率躍升至4.68%，創5月以來最高水平。

Interestingly, BTC fell 5% to $96,900 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 declined by over 1%. The post-U.S. election uptrend in both assets lost momentum in mid-December, coinciding with the bottom in the MOVE index, as shown below.

有趣的是，比特幣週二下跌 5% 至 96,900 美元，而標普 500 指數下跌超過 1%。美國大選後這兩種資產的上漲趨勢在 12 月中旬失去了動力，與 MOVE 指數的底部一致，如下所示。

The MOVE index collapsed following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5, which helped ease financial conditions for risk assets, leading to impressive gains into the year-end. However, both BTC and the S&P 500 faced challenges when the MOVE index began to shift in mid-December.

唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月 5 日舉行的美國大選中獲勝後，MOVE 指數暴跌，這有助於緩解風險資產的財務狀況，導致年底取得令人印象深刻的漲幅。然而，當 MOVE 指數在 12 月中旬開始發生變化時，BTC 和標準普爾 500 指數都面臨挑戰。

The key takeaway is that bonds are driving the broader market narrative. A bullish turnaround in risk assets likely requires the Treasury market to stabilize.

關鍵要點是債券正在推動更廣泛的市場敘事。風險資產的看漲轉變可能需要國債市場穩定。

Currently, with the MOVE index trending upwards, the likelihood of bitcoin and the S&P 500 completing their respective head-and-shoulders bearish reversal patterns appears high.

目前，隨著MOVE指數呈上升趨勢，比特幣和標準普爾500指數完成各自頭肩頂看跌反轉模式的可能性似乎很高。