MicroStrategy (MSTR)：将软件业务与比特币控股相结合的独特投资工具

近年来，MicroStrategy 经历了显着的转型，从商业智能软件提供商的传统角色转变为最大的上市独立商业智能公司，重点关注比特币收购和持有。

**MicroStrategy, Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR)**, a company once primarily known for its business intelligence software, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Pivoting away from its traditional role, MicroStrategy has now become the largest publicly-traded independent business intelligence company with a significant focus on Bitcoin acquisition and holding. This strategic shift has fundamentally altered the company's profile and investment thesis.

**MicroStrategy, Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）**是一家曾经主要以其商业智能软件而闻名的公司，近年来经历了显着的转型。 MicroStrategy 摆脱了传统角色，现已成为最大的上市独立商业情报公司，重点关注比特币收购和持有。这一战略转变从根本上改变了公司的形象和投资理念。

**Company Overview and Transformation**

**公司概况及转型**

MicroStrategy has shifted its focus from being a business intelligence software provider to become a unique investment vehicle that combines its core software business with a substantial Bitcoin holding strategy. This move has attracted attention from investors and analysts alike, as the company's fortunes have become increasingly tied to the performance of the cryptocurrency market.

MicroStrategy 已将其重点从商业智能软件提供商转变为将其核心软件业务与大量比特币持有策略相结合的独特投资工具。此举引起了投资者和分析师的关注，因为该公司的命运与加密货币市场的表现越来越相关。

**Bitcoin Strategy and Holdings**

**比特币策略和持有**

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has been aggressive and transformative. The company has leveraged various financial instruments, including convertible notes and equity raises, to fund its Bitcoin purchases. This approach has allowed MicroStrategy to accumulate a significant Bitcoin position, valued at approximately $18.1 billion as of October 2024.

MicroStrategy 的比特币战略非常积极且具有变革性。该公司利用了各种金融工具，包括可转换票据和股权融资，为其购买比特币提供资金。这种方法使 MicroStrategy 积累了重要的比特币头寸，截至 2024 年 10 月价值约为 181 亿美元。

The company introduced the concept of "Bitcoin Yield" to highlight the growth in Bitcoin holdings per share. Analysts report that this metric increased by 20.4% month-to-date as of November 2024, surpassing the annual target of 6%-10%. This innovative approach to measuring performance underscores MicroStrategy's commitment to its Bitcoin-centric strategy.

该公司引入了“比特币收益率”的概念，以强调每股比特币持有量的增长。分析师报告称，截至 2024 年 11 月，该指标本月迄今增长了 20.4%，超过了 6%-10% 的年度目标。这种衡量绩效的创新方法强调了 MicroStrategy 对以比特币为中心的战略的承诺。

**Financial Performance and Projections**

**财务业绩和预测**

While MicroStrategy's financial performance is increasingly tied to Bitcoin's price movements, the company's software business continues to generate revenue and cash flow. Analysts project FY24 revenue of $475.28 million and FY25 revenue of $462.73 million. EBITDA projections stand at $30.58 million for FY24 and $38.71 million for FY25.

尽管 MicroStrategy 的财务业绩与比特币的价格走势越来越相关，但该公司的软件业务仍在继续产生收入和现金流。分析师预计 2024 财年收入为 4.7528 亿美元，25 财年收入为 4.6273 亿美元。 2024 财年 EBITDA 预测为 3,058 万美元，25 财年为 3,871 万美元。

The company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect the volatility associated with its Bitcoin holdings, with projections ranging from negative in the near term to potentially positive in future years. For instance, one analyst estimates FY1 EPS at -1.58, turning positive in FY2 with an estimate of 0.06.

该公司的每股收益（EPS）预估反映了与其持有的比特币相关的波动性，预测范围从近期的负面收益到未来几年的潜在正面收益。例如，一位分析师预计 2012 财年每股收益为 -1.58，而 2020 财年每股收益为 0.06。

**Bear Case**

**熊箱**

Regulatory pressures could potentially impact MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy. As governments and financial regulators worldwide grapple with the growing influence of cryptocurrencies, there is a possibility of increased scrutiny and regulation of Bitcoin and related investments. Stricter regulations could limit MicroStrategy's ability to acquire or hold Bitcoin,

监管压力可能会影响 MicroStrategy 的比特币战略。随着世界各地的政府和金融监管机构努力应对加密货币日益增长的影响，对比特币及相关投资的审查和监管可能会加强。更严格的监管可能会限制 MicroStrategy 获取或持有比特币的能力，

perhaps forcing the company to divest some of its holdings or alter its strategy. Moreover, regulatory actions that negatively impact the broader cryptocurrency market could lead to a significant devaluation of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin assets, ultimately affecting the company's balance sheet and stock price.

也许迫使该公司剥离部分持股或改变其战略。此外，对更广泛的加密货币市场产生负面影响的监管行动可能会导致 MicroStrategy 的比特币资产大幅贬值，最终影响该公司的资产负债表和股价。

**Bull Case**

**公牛案例**

Increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin could significantly benefit MicroStrategy's strategy and valuation. As more institutional investors and corporations consider Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class or treasury reserve, demand for the cryptocurrency could rise substantially. This increased demand could drive up Bitcoin prices, directly benefiting MicroStrategy's holdings and, by extension, its stock price.

机构对比特币的采用增加可以极大地有利于 MicroStrategy 的战略和估值。随着越来越多的机构投资者和企业将比特币视为合法的资产类别或国库储备，对加密货币的需求可能会大幅上升。这种需求的增加可能会推高比特币价格，从而直接有利于 MicroStrategy 的持有量，进而有利于其股价。

Moreover, being one of the largest publicly-traded Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy could be seen as a proxy for institutional Bitcoin investment, potentially attracting more investors to its stock. The company's early-mover advantage in corporate Bitcoin adoption positions it well to capitalize on growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency space.

此外，作为最大的公开交易比特币持有者之一，MicroStrategy 可以被视为机构比特币投资的代理，有可能吸引更多投资者购买其股票。该公司在企业比特币采用方面的先发优势使其能够很好地利用机构对加密货币领域日益增长的兴趣。