MicroStrategy (MSTR)：將軟體業務與比特幣控股結合的獨特投資工具

近年來，MicroStrategy 經歷了顯著的轉型，從商業智慧軟體供應商的傳統角色轉變為最大的上市獨立商業智慧公司，專注於比特幣收購和持有。

**MicroStrategy, Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR)**, a company once primarily known for its business intelligence software, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Pivoting away from its traditional role, MicroStrategy has now become the largest publicly-traded independent business intelligence company with a significant focus on Bitcoin acquisition and holding. This strategic shift has fundamentally altered the company's profile and investment thesis.

**MicroStrategy, Inc.（NASDAQ：MSTR）**是一家曾經主要以其商業智慧軟體而聞名的公司，近年來經歷了顯著的轉型。 MicroStrategy 擺脫了傳統角色，現已成為最大的上市獨立商業情報公司，專注於比特幣收購和持有。這一策略轉變從根本上改變了公司的形象和投資理念。

**Company Overview and Transformation**

**公司概況及轉型**

MicroStrategy has shifted its focus from being a business intelligence software provider to become a unique investment vehicle that combines its core software business with a substantial Bitcoin holding strategy. This move has attracted attention from investors and analysts alike, as the company's fortunes have become increasingly tied to the performance of the cryptocurrency market.

MicroStrategy 已將其重點從商業智慧軟體供應商轉變為將其核心軟體業務與大量比特幣持有策略相結合的獨特投資工具。此舉引起了投資者和分析師的關注，因為該公司的命運與加密貨幣市場的表現越來越相關。

**Bitcoin Strategy and Holdings**

**比特幣策略和持有**

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has been aggressive and transformative. The company has leveraged various financial instruments, including convertible notes and equity raises, to fund its Bitcoin purchases. This approach has allowed MicroStrategy to accumulate a significant Bitcoin position, valued at approximately $18.1 billion as of October 2024.

MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略非常積極且具有變革性。該公司利用了各種金融工具，包括可轉換票據和股權融資，為其購買比特幣提供資金。這種方法使 MicroStrategy 累積了重要的比特幣頭寸，截至 2024 年 10 月價值約 181 億美元。

The company introduced the concept of "Bitcoin Yield" to highlight the growth in Bitcoin holdings per share. Analysts report that this metric increased by 20.4% month-to-date as of November 2024, surpassing the annual target of 6%-10%. This innovative approach to measuring performance underscores MicroStrategy's commitment to its Bitcoin-centric strategy.

該公司引入了「比特幣收益率」的概念，以強調每股比特幣持有量的成長。分析師報告稱，截至 2024 年 11 月，該指標本月迄今成長了 20.4%，超過了 6%-10% 的年度目標。這種衡量績效的創新方法強調了 MicroStrategy 對以比特幣為中心的策略的承諾。

**Financial Performance and Projections**

**財務績效與預測**

While MicroStrategy's financial performance is increasingly tied to Bitcoin's price movements, the company's software business continues to generate revenue and cash flow. Analysts project FY24 revenue of $475.28 million and FY25 revenue of $462.73 million. EBITDA projections stand at $30.58 million for FY24 and $38.71 million for FY25.

儘管 MicroStrategy 的財務表現與比特幣的價格趨勢越來越相關，但該公司的軟體業務仍在繼續產生收入和現金流。分析師預計 2024 財年營收為 4.7528 億美元，25 財年營收為 4.6273 億美元。 2024 財年 EBITDA 預測為 3,058 萬美元，25 財年為 3,871 萬美元。

The company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect the volatility associated with its Bitcoin holdings, with projections ranging from negative in the near term to potentially positive in future years. For instance, one analyst estimates FY1 EPS at -1.58, turning positive in FY2 with an estimate of 0.06.

該公司的每股盈餘（EPS）預估反映了與其持有的比特幣相關的波動性，預測範圍從近期的負面收益到未來幾年的潛在正面收益。例如，一位分析師預計 2012 財年每股收益為 -1.58，而 2020 財年每股收益為 0.06。

**Bear Case**

**熊箱**

Regulatory pressures could potentially impact MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy. As governments and financial regulators worldwide grapple with the growing influence of cryptocurrencies, there is a possibility of increased scrutiny and regulation of Bitcoin and related investments. Stricter regulations could limit MicroStrategy's ability to acquire or hold Bitcoin,

監管壓力可能會影響 MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略。隨著世界各地的政府和金融監管機構努力應對加密貨幣日益增長的影響，對比特幣及相關投資的審查和監管可能會加強。更嚴格的監管可能會限制 MicroStrategy 取得或持有比特幣的能力，

perhaps forcing the company to divest some of its holdings or alter its strategy. Moreover, regulatory actions that negatively impact the broader cryptocurrency market could lead to a significant devaluation of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin assets, ultimately affecting the company's balance sheet and stock price.

也許迫使該公司剝離部分持股或改變其策略。此外，對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產生負面影響的監管行動可能會導致 MicroStrategy 的比特幣資產大幅貶值，最終影響該公司的資產負債表和股價。

**Bull Case**

**公牛案例**

Increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin could significantly benefit MicroStrategy's strategy and valuation. As more institutional investors and corporations consider Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class or treasury reserve, demand for the cryptocurrency could rise substantially. This increased demand could drive up Bitcoin prices, directly benefiting MicroStrategy's holdings and, by extension, its stock price.

機構對比特幣的採用增加可以大大有利於 MicroStrategy 的策略和估值。隨著越來越多的機構投資者和企業將比特幣視為合法的資產類別或國庫儲備，對加密貨幣的需求可能會大幅上升。這種需求的增加可能會推高比特幣價格，直接有利於 MicroStrategy 的持有量，進而有利於其股價。

Moreover, being one of the largest publicly-traded Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy could be seen as a proxy for institutional Bitcoin investment, potentially attracting more investors to its stock. The company's early-mover advantage in corporate Bitcoin adoption positions it well to capitalize on growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency space.

此外，作為最大的公開交易比特幣持有者之一，MicroStrategy 可以被視為機構比特幣投資的代理，有可能吸引更多投資者購買其股票。該公司在企業比特幣採用方面的先發優勢使其能夠很好地利用機構對加密貨幣領域日益增長的興趣。