宏观/加密夏季释放数字资产前所未有的增长

著名交易专家 Raoul Pal 称之为“宏观/加密货币夏季”的到来，标志着金融市场的一个重要阶段。植根于全球经济的周期性，这一时期的特点是流动性增加，这在历史上推动了科技股和加密货币的增长。帕尔强调了这些季节的显着增长潜力，比特币和山寨币表现出了非凡的收益。他基于“一切代码”周期的分析表明，流动性将持续上升，直到 2025 年，推动“宏观/加密货币之夏”并创造财富创造机会。

The Macro/Crypto Summer: A Period of Unprecedented Growth for Digital Assets

宏观/加密货币之夏：数字资产空前增长的时期

In a recent thread on the social media platform X, renowned trading guru Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has introduced the concept of the "Macro/Crypto Summer." This period, according to Pal, is not merely a transient season but a significant phase in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, deeply rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.

在社交媒体平台 X 最近的帖子中，著名交易大师、Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 的创始人兼首席执行官 Raoul Pal 引入了“宏观/加密货币之夏”的概念。帕尔认为，这一时期不仅仅是一个短暂的季节，而且是金融和加密货币市场的一个重要阶段，深深植根于全球经济的周期性。

The Significance of the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏观/加密夏季的意义

Pal elaborates on the concept of the "Macro Summer" as a pivotal phase in "The Everything Code" cycle, closely following the Financial Conditions Index, which historically precedes the cycle by approximately ten months. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, often bottoms out during this period, marking the start of GDP growth.

帕尔详细阐述了“宏观夏季”的概念，将其视为“一切代码”周期的关键阶段，紧随金融状况指数之后，该指数历来领先该周期约十个月。 ISM（供应管理协会）指数是衡量经济健康状况的关键指标，通常会在此期间触底，标志着GDP增长的开始。

Pal's thesis draws attention to the "near-perfect 3 1/2 year cyclicality" in the ISM business cycle, propelled by liquidity dynamics and the debt refinancing cycle at its core. He underscores the significance of liquidity: "And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis."

帕尔的论文提请人们注意 ISM 商业周期中“近乎完美的 3 1/2 年周期性”，其推动力是流动性动态和其核心的债务再融资周期。他强调了流动性的重要性：“流动性是由流动性驱动的，流动性于 2022 年底触底……宏观夏季和秋季都是流动性上升的时期，也是《一切代码》论文的核心部分。”

The Impact on Tech Stocks and Cryptocurrencies

对科技股和加密货币的影响

This influx of liquidity is crucial for tech stocks, which historically thrive during these phases. Yet, it is Bitcoin and, more broadly, the cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most dramatic responses. Pal presents staggering growth figures from past Macro Summer and Fall seasons to underscore his point:

这种流动性的涌入对于科技股至关重要，科技股历来在这些阶段蓬勃发展。然而，比特币以及更广泛的加密货币市场表现出最引人注目的反应。帕尔提供了过去宏观夏季和秋季的惊人增长数据来强调他的观点：

• Bitcoin: Saw increases of "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x..."
• Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 cycles, it achieved "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of "+24x" in the last cycle.

"Wild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn't rise, so I'm not just cherry-picking winners here," Pal remarked.

比特币：增长了“2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x...”以太坊：作为一种山寨币，在 2016/2017 和 2020/2021 周期，它实现了“2016” /2017：+1,770x，2020/2021：+41x。“山寨币（不包括 ETH）：在上一个周期见证了总市值上涨“+24 倍”。“狂野！当我们只看除 ETH 之外的山寨币时（ （我们只有上一个周期的较短数据），整个市值上涨了 24 倍！其中包括数千个没有上涨的毫无价值的代币，所以我不仅仅是在这里挑选获胜者，”Pal 评论道。

The Rise of Meme Coins and the Power of Crypto Summer

Meme 币的兴起和加密夏季的力量

DOGE, a popular meme coin, is mentioned by Pal as another prime example of the "power of Crypto Summer and Fall," with its value experiencing significant multipliers – "2016/2017: +136x, 2020/2021: +370x" – in the aforementioned cycles.

Pal 提到 DOGE 是一种流行的模因币，是“加密货币夏季和秋季的力量”的另一个主要例子，其价值经历了显着的乘数——“2016/2017：+136 倍，2020/2021：+370 倍”——上述循环。

These figures underline the significant influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with Bitcoin's halving events. "Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving," he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape.

这些数字强调了宏观经济周期对加密货币估值的重大影响，帕尔指出这些周期与比特币减半事件的一致性。他表示：“加密货币夏季已经开始，并在减半后全面发展。”他强调了这些周期与更广泛的金融格局的相互关联性。

Looking Forward: Expectations for Liquidity and Market Growth

展望未来：对流动性和市场增长的预期

Notably, Pal's analysis doesn't stop at the past; it looks forward, suggesting that liquidity is expected to rise all the way into the end of 2025. This anticipation is rooted in a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and changes in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

值得注意的是，帕尔的分析并没有停留在过去。它展望未来，表明流动性预计将一路上升，直至 2025 年底。这种预期植根于全球金融机制的复杂相互作用，包括美国可能增加印钞以应对大规模扩张。利息支付以及美联储净流动性和财政部普通账户（TGA）的变化。

"Will the US join the summer party? […] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. […] at some point – the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. […] I cannot see how they don't massively expand liquidity, one way or another.

“美国会加入夏季派对吗？[……]我知道现在看来不可能，但美国正处于利息支付大幅增加的边缘。[……]在某个时候——资产负债表将停止收缩，这足以向系统释放流动性。[…]我不明白他们如何不以某种方式大规模扩大流动性。

Meanwhile, Pal predicts that it won't be just the US injecting liquidity into the financial systems in the coming months. "I've no idea whether it's China, the EU, Japan, or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell," he remarked.

与此同时，帕尔预测，未来几个月向金融体系注入流动性的将不仅仅是美国。 “我不知道是中国、欧盟、日本还是美国推动了这一进程，或者也许是所有因素共同推动了这一进程。时间会证明一切，”他表示。

Investment Strategies and the Banana Zone

投资策略和香蕉区

Pal attributes his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto, to the insights gained from The Everything Code. This approach has prepared him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen eye on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone." He concludes:

帕尔将他的投资策略（尤其是在科技和加密货币领域）归因于从《一切代码》中获得的见解。这种方法让他为即将到来的宏观夏季做好了准备，并敏锐地关注山寨币市场和所谓的“香蕉区”。他的结论是：

"But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU"

“但更大的游戏尚未上演，因为 Alt 季节到来，我们完全进入香蕉区。香蕉区到来了，它是一个巨大的财富生成机器。耐心会得到回报。同时，不要他妈的。#DFTU”

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $67,003.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 67,003 美元。

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