宏觀/加密夏季釋放數位資產前所未有的成長

著名交易專家 Raoul Pal 稱之為「宏觀/加密貨幣夏季」的到來，標誌著金融市場的一個重要階段。植根於全球經濟的周期性，這一時期的特徵是流動性增加，這在歷史上推動了科技股和加密貨幣的成長。帕爾強調了這些季節的顯著成長潛力，比特幣和山寨幣表現出了非凡的收益。他基於「一切代碼」週期的分析表明，流動性將持續上升，直到 2025 年，推動「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」並創造財富創造機會。

The Macro/Crypto Summer: A Period of Unprecedented Growth for Digital Assets

宏觀/加密貨幣之夏：數位資產空前成長的時期

In a recent thread on the social media platform X, renowned trading guru Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has introduced the concept of the "Macro/Crypto Summer." This period, according to Pal, is not merely a transient season but a significant phase in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, deeply rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.

在社群媒體平台 X 最近的貼文中，著名交易大師、Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 的創始人兼執行長 Raoul Pal 引入了「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」的概念。帕爾認為，這段時期不僅是一個短暫的季節，也是金融和加密貨幣市場的重要階段，深植於全球經濟的週期性。

The Significance of the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏觀/加密夏季的意義

Pal elaborates on the concept of the "Macro Summer" as a pivotal phase in "The Everything Code" cycle, closely following the Financial Conditions Index, which historically precedes the cycle by approximately ten months. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, often bottoms out during this period, marking the start of GDP growth.

帕爾詳細闡述了「宏觀夏季」的概念，將其視為「一切代碼」週期的關鍵階段，緊接著金融狀況指數之後，該指數歷來領先該週期約十個月。 ISM（供應管理協會）指數是衡量經濟健康狀況的關鍵指標，通常在此期間觸底，標誌著GDP成長的開始。

Pal's thesis draws attention to the "near-perfect 3 1/2 year cyclicality" in the ISM business cycle, propelled by liquidity dynamics and the debt refinancing cycle at its core. He underscores the significance of liquidity: "And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis."

帕爾的論文提請人們注意 ISM 商業週期中“近乎完美的 3 1/2 年周期性”，其推動力是流動性動態和其核心的債務再融資週期。他強調了流動性的重要性：「流動性是由流動性驅動的，流動性於2022 年底觸底……宏觀夏季和秋季都是流動性上升的時期，也是《一切代碼》論文的核心部分。 」

The Impact on Tech Stocks and Cryptocurrencies

對科技股和加密貨幣的影響

This influx of liquidity is crucial for tech stocks, which historically thrive during these phases. Yet, it is Bitcoin and, more broadly, the cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most dramatic responses. Pal presents staggering growth figures from past Macro Summer and Fall seasons to underscore his point:

這種流動性的湧入對於科技股至關重要，科技股歷來在這些階段蓬勃發展。然而，比特幣以及更廣泛的加密貨幣市場表現出最引人注目的反應。帕爾提供了過去宏觀夏季和秋季的驚人成長數據來強調他的觀點：

• Bitcoin: Saw increases of "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x..."
• Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 cycles, it achieved "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of "+24x" in the last cycle.

"Wild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn't rise, so I'm not just cherry-picking winners here," Pal remarked.

比特幣：成長了「2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x...」以太坊：作為一種山寨幣，在2016/2017 和2020/2021 週期，它實現了“2016”/2017：+1,770x，2020/2021：+41x。“山寨幣（不包括ETH）：在上一個週期見證了總市值上漲“+24 倍”。“狂野！當我們只看除ETH 以外的山寨幣時（ （我們只有上一個週期的較短數據），整個市值上漲了24 倍！其中包括數千個沒有上漲的毫無價值的代幣，所以我不僅僅是在這裡挑選獲勝者，」Pal 評論道。

The Rise of Meme Coins and the Power of Crypto Summer

Meme 幣的崛起與加密夏季的力量

DOGE, a popular meme coin, is mentioned by Pal as another prime example of the "power of Crypto Summer and Fall," with its value experiencing significant multipliers – "2016/2017: +136x, 2020/2021: +370x" – in the aforementioned cycles.

Pal 提到DOGE 是一種流行的模因幣，是「加密貨幣夏季和秋季的力量」的另一個主要例子，其價值經歷了顯著的乘數——「2016/2017：+136 倍，2020 /2021：+370 倍」—上述循環。

These figures underline the significant influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with Bitcoin's halving events. "Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving," he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape.

這些數字強調了宏觀經濟週期對加密貨幣估值的重大影響，帕爾指出這些週期與比特幣減半事件的一致性。他表示：「加密貨幣夏季已經開始，並在減半後全面發展。」他強調了這些週期與更廣泛的金融格局的相互關聯性。

Looking Forward: Expectations for Liquidity and Market Growth

展望未來：對流動性和市場成長的預期

Notably, Pal's analysis doesn't stop at the past; it looks forward, suggesting that liquidity is expected to rise all the way into the end of 2025. This anticipation is rooted in a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and changes in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

值得注意的是，帕爾的分析並沒有停留在過去。它展望未來，表明流動性預計將一路上升，直至 2025 年底。這種預期植根於全球金融機制的複雜相互作用，包括美國可能增加印鈔以應對大規模擴張。利息支付以及聯準會淨流動性和財政部普通帳戶（TGA）的變化。

"Will the US join the summer party? […] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. […] at some point – the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. […] I cannot see how they don't massively expand liquidity, one way or another.

「美國會加入夏季派對嗎？[……]我知道現在看來不可能，但美國正處於利息支付大幅增加的邊緣。[……]在某個時候——資產負債表將停止收縮，這足以向系統釋放流動性。[…]我不明白他們如何不以某種方式大規模擴大流動性。

Meanwhile, Pal predicts that it won't be just the US injecting liquidity into the financial systems in the coming months. "I've no idea whether it's China, the EU, Japan, or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell," he remarked.

同時，帕爾預測，未來幾個月向金融體系注入流動性的將不只是美國。 「我不知道是中國、歐盟、日本還是美國推動了這一進程，或者也許是所有因素共同推動了這一進程。時間會證明一切，」他表示。

Investment Strategies and the Banana Zone

投資策略和香蕉區

Pal attributes his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto, to the insights gained from The Everything Code. This approach has prepared him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen eye on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone." He concludes:

帕爾將他的投資策略（尤其是在科技和加密貨幣領域）歸因於從《一切代碼》中獲得的見解。這種方法讓他為即將到來的宏觀夏季做好了準備，並敏銳地關注山寨幣市場和所謂的「香蕉區」。他的結論是：

"But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU"

「但更大的遊戲尚未上演，因為 Alt 季節到來，我們完全進入香蕉區。香蕉區到來了，它是一個巨大的財富生成機器。耐心會得到回報。同時，不要他媽的。#DFTU”

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $67,003.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 67,003 美元。

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