|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
随着流动性的增长,机构投资者和期权策略可能会推动比特币 ETF 市场的长期扩张。
As institutional investors continue to flock to the newly launched bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a burning question arises: what's next for these ETFs and the broader crypto market?
随着机构投资者继续涌向新推出的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),一个紧迫的问题出现了:这些 ETF 和更广泛的加密市场的下一步是什么?
With the massive success of these ETFs in attracting a record-breaking total net inflow of $18.9 billion this year, and nine newborn ETFs (excluding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) now holding a substantial 646k BTC, several key points emerge.
随着这些 ETF 今年取得了巨大成功,吸引了创纪录的 189 亿美元总净流入,并且 9 只新生 ETF(不包括灰度比特币信托)目前持有大量 64.6 万比特币,几个关键点浮出水面。
Firstly, these ETFs have played a significant role in the broader ETF market, with IShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) ranking among the top 10 in terms of biggest assets this year, according to Eric Balchunas, Senior Bloomberg Analyst.
首先,这些 ETF 在更广泛的 ETF 市场中发挥了重要作用,根据高级管理人员 Eric Balchunas 的说法,IShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 和 Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) 今年在最大资产方面跻身前 10 名。彭博分析师。
However, despite this success, the ETF market still comprises a relatively small fraction of the overall bitcoin trading volume. For instance, on Oct. 11, the last full trading day, the bitcoin futures market traded $53.4 billion, the spot market traded $4.5 billion and the ETFs traded $2 billion, according to checkonchain data. This indicates that ETF trading volume on that day constituted only around 3% of the total bitcoin market volume.
然而,尽管取得了如此成功,ETF 市场仍然只占比特币总体交易量的一小部分。例如,根据 checkonchain 数据,10 月 11 日,即最后一个完整交易日,比特币期货市场交易额为 534 亿美元,现货市场交易额为 45 亿美元,ETF 交易额为 20 亿美元。这表明当日ETF交易量仅占比特币市场总交易量的3%左右。
Another crucial aspect to consider is the role of the "basis trade" in the overall inflows into the ETFs. This market-neutral strategy, which involves going long on the underlying asset (e.g., bitcoin) while simultaneously shorting the futures contract, aims to capture the premium between the spot and futures price. As the futures contract approaches its expiration, its price converges with the spot price, presenting an opportunity for arbitrageurs to close their positions and realize the spread.
另一个需要考虑的重要方面是“基差交易”在 ETF 整体资金流入中的作用。这种市场中性策略涉及做多标的资产(例如比特币),同时做空期货合约,旨在获取现货和期货价格之间的溢价。随着期货合约临近到期,其价格与现货价格趋同,为套利者提供平仓和实现价差的机会。
This strategy is particularly relevant in the context of bitcoin ETFs due to the premium that typically exists between the ETF's net asset value (NAV) and the prevailing spot price of bitcoin. As a result, a portion of the inflows into these ETFs are likely attributable to this type of trade.
该策略在比特币 ETF 的背景下尤其重要,因为 ETF 的资产净值 (NAV) 与比特币的现行现货价格之间通常存在溢价。因此,流入这些 ETF 的一部分可能归因于此类交易。
While the precise percentage of inflows that can be linked to the basis trade is challenging to determine, an examination of IBIT's largest holders, as disclosed in the 13-F filings, provides some insights. According to Fintel, these large holders include authorized participants (APs) involved in the creation and redemption of the ETF shares, as well as hedge funds that are likely utilizing the ETF for the basis trade.
虽然与基差交易相关的流入资金的精确百分比很难确定,但 13-F 文件中披露的对 IBIT 最大持有人的审查提供了一些见解。 Fintel 表示,这些大股东包括参与 ETF 份额创建和赎回的授权参与者 (AP),以及可能利用 ETF 进行基差交易的对冲基金。
As we look ahead, Bernstein, a private wealth management firm, has previously highlighted the potential of these institutional basis trades to serve as a "Trojan horse for adoption." The firm's analysis suggests that as liquidity grows in the ETF market, these trades could ultimately contribute to net long positions.
展望未来,私人财富管理公司伯恩斯坦此前曾强调这些机构基础交易有可能成为“采用的特洛伊木马”。该公司的分析表明,随着 ETF 市场流动性的增长,这些交易最终可能会增加净多头头寸。
Moreover, as ETFs become a larger part of the overall market, they are expected to drive further participation and liquidity in the crypto space. Another anticipated development is the approval of physically settled options tied to IBIT, which could open up new avenues for advanced investors to generate passive income through strategies like covered calls or for miners to hedge their positions. As ETF adoption continues to unfold, these factors are expected to play an increasingly influential role in the market.
此外,随着 ETF 成为整个市场的更大组成部分,预计它们将推动加密货币领域的进一步参与和流动性。另一个预期的发展是批准与 IBIT 相关的实物结算期权,这可能为高级投资者开辟新的途径,通过备兑看涨期权等策略产生被动收入,或为矿工对冲头寸开辟新途径。随着 ETF 的采用不断展开,这些因素预计将在市场中发挥越来越大的影响力。
免责声明:info@kdj.com
所提供的信息并非交易建议。根据本文提供的信息进行的任何投资,kdj.com不承担任何责任。加密货币具有高波动性,强烈建议您深入研究后,谨慎投资!
如您认为本网站上使用的内容侵犯了您的版权,请立即联系我们(info@kdj.com),我们将及时删除。
-
- 三大抽奖赌场欢迎优惠,如果您错过了,您会后悔的
- 2024-10-15 02:25:01
- 了解您作为新玩家可以利用的三大横扫赌场欢迎优惠的全部信息。
-
- 比特币 (BTC) 盈亏比超过 1,表明市场正发生转变
- 2024-10-15 02:25:01
- 盈亏比是衡量比特币投资中有多少人盈利以及有多少人亏损的指标。
-
- Celestia (TIA) 价格突破下跌楔形——下一步是什么?
- 2024-10-15 02:25:01
- Celestia(TIA)的价格在摆脱下跌趋势后引起了加密货币社区的关注。这种方向的改变通常被视为