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隨著流動性的成長,機構投資者和選擇權策略可能會推動比特幣 ETF 市場的長期擴張。
As institutional investors continue to flock to the newly launched bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a burning question arises: what's next for these ETFs and the broader crypto market?
隨著機構投資者繼續湧向新推出的比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF),一個緊迫的問題出現了:這些 ETF 和更廣泛的加密市場的下一步是什麼?
With the massive success of these ETFs in attracting a record-breaking total net inflow of $18.9 billion this year, and nine newborn ETFs (excluding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) now holding a substantial 646k BTC, several key points emerge.
隨著這些ETF 今年取得了巨大成功,吸引了創紀錄的189 億美元總淨流入,並且9 只新生ETF(不包括灰度比特幣信託)目前持有大量64.6 萬比特幣,幾個關鍵點浮出水面。
Firstly, these ETFs have played a significant role in the broader ETF market, with IShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) ranking among the top 10 in terms of biggest assets this year, according to Eric Balchunas, Senior Bloomberg Analyst.
首先,這些 ETF 在更廣泛的 ETF 市場中發揮了重要作用,根據高級管理人員 Eric Balchunas 的說法,IShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 和 Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) 今年在最大資產方面躋身前 10 名。彭博分析師。
However, despite this success, the ETF market still comprises a relatively small fraction of the overall bitcoin trading volume. For instance, on Oct. 11, the last full trading day, the bitcoin futures market traded $53.4 billion, the spot market traded $4.5 billion and the ETFs traded $2 billion, according to checkonchain data. This indicates that ETF trading volume on that day constituted only around 3% of the total bitcoin market volume.
然而,儘管取得瞭如此成功,ETF 市場仍然只佔比特幣整體交易量的一小部分。例如,根據 checkonchain 數據,10 月 11 日,即最後一個完整交易日,比特幣期貨市場交易額為 534 億美元,現貨市場交易額為 45 億美元,ETF 交易額為 20 億美元。這顯示當日ETF交易量僅佔比特幣市場總交易量的3%左右。
Another crucial aspect to consider is the role of the "basis trade" in the overall inflows into the ETFs. This market-neutral strategy, which involves going long on the underlying asset (e.g., bitcoin) while simultaneously shorting the futures contract, aims to capture the premium between the spot and futures price. As the futures contract approaches its expiration, its price converges with the spot price, presenting an opportunity for arbitrageurs to close their positions and realize the spread.
另一個需要考慮的重要面向是「基差交易」在 ETF 整體資金流入中的作用。這種市場中性策略涉及做多標的資產(例如比特幣),同時做空期貨合約,旨在獲取現貨和期貨價格之間的溢價。隨著期貨合約接近到期,其價格與現貨價格趨同,為套利者提供平倉和實現價差的機會。
This strategy is particularly relevant in the context of bitcoin ETFs due to the premium that typically exists between the ETF's net asset value (NAV) and the prevailing spot price of bitcoin. As a result, a portion of the inflows into these ETFs are likely attributable to this type of trade.
該策略在比特幣 ETF 的背景下尤其重要,因為 ETF 的資產淨值 (NAV) 與比特幣的現行現貨價格之間通常存在溢價。因此,流入這些 ETF 的一部分可能歸因於此類交易。
While the precise percentage of inflows that can be linked to the basis trade is challenging to determine, an examination of IBIT's largest holders, as disclosed in the 13-F filings, provides some insights. According to Fintel, these large holders include authorized participants (APs) involved in the creation and redemption of the ETF shares, as well as hedge funds that are likely utilizing the ETF for the basis trade.
雖然與基差交易相關的流入資金的精確百分比很難確定,但 13-F 文件中揭露的對 IBIT 最大持有人的審查提供了一些見解。 Fintel 表示,這些大股東包括參與 ETF 份額創建和贖回的授權參與者 (AP),以及可能利用 ETF 進行基差交易的對沖基金。
As we look ahead, Bernstein, a private wealth management firm, has previously highlighted the potential of these institutional basis trades to serve as a "Trojan horse for adoption." The firm's analysis suggests that as liquidity grows in the ETF market, these trades could ultimately contribute to net long positions.
展望未來,私人財富管理公司伯恩斯坦先前曾強調這些機構基礎交易有可能成為「採用的特洛伊木馬」。該公司的分析表明,隨著 ETF 市場流動性的成長,這些交易最終可能會增加淨多頭部位。
Moreover, as ETFs become a larger part of the overall market, they are expected to drive further participation and liquidity in the crypto space. Another anticipated development is the approval of physically settled options tied to IBIT, which could open up new avenues for advanced investors to generate passive income through strategies like covered calls or for miners to hedge their positions. As ETF adoption continues to unfold, these factors are expected to play an increasingly influential role in the market.
此外,隨著 ETF 成為整個市場的更大組成部分,預計它們將推動加密貨幣領域的進一步參與和流動性。另一個預期的發展是批准與 IBIT 相關的實物結算選擇權,這可能為高級投資者開闢新的途徑,透過備兌買權等策略產生被動收入,或為礦工對沖頭寸開闢新途徑。隨著 ETF 的採用不斷展開,這些因素預計將在市場中發揮越來越大的影響力。
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