投资者应该开始认真对待比特币吗？

亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·厄尔·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）著名地称'87坠机事故，他在2020年大胆地押注比特币。

If you're reading this, chances are you've encountered the swirling rumors of Bitcoin's ascent. But should investors finally start taking it seriously, just as we should have taken tech stocks more seriously in the 2010s?

如果您正在阅读本文，那么您很可能会遇到比特币上升的漩涡谣言。但是，投资者最终是否应该开始认真对待它，就像我们应该在2010年代更加认真对待技术股票吗？

Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge fund manager who famously called the ’87 crash, made a bold bet on Bitcoin in 2020. Since then, it’s surged over 1,200%. His reasoning? If beating inflation is a race, Bitcoin is the fastest horse.

亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·厄尔·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）著名地称'87坠机事故，他在2020年大胆地押注比特币。从那时起，它的飙升超过了1,200％。他的理由？如果击败通货膨胀是一场比赛，比特币是最快的马。

Yet, many investors remain skeptical. Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin has no cash flows, no earnings, and no tangible value - making it easy to dismiss. But are we making the same mistake with Bitcoin that skeptics made with Amazon and Apple decades ago?

然而，许多投资者仍然持怀疑态度。与传统资产不同，比特币没有现金流量，没有收入，也没有切实的价值 - 使其容易被解雇。但是，几十年前，我们对比特币犯了同样的错误吗？

With cryptocurrency markets maturing, institutional adoption accelerating, and Bitcoin hitting record highs (until the recent dip), the case for including it in a portfolio is stronger than ever. Is it time to move past old biases and rethink its place in a portfolio?

随着加密货币市场的成熟，机构采用的加速和比特币达到创纪录的高点（直到最近的下降），将其包括在投资组合中的情况比以往任何时候都更强大。是时候转移旧偏见并重新考虑其在投资组合中的位置了吗？

To break it down, we’re joined by Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners.

为了分解它，来自Viola私人财富的Charlie Viola和Shaw和Partners的Adam Dawes加入了我们的行列。

Other ways to listen:

听取的其他方式：

Edited Transcript:

编辑成绩单：

Vishal Teckchandani: Welcome to Buy, Hold, Sell. My name is Vishal Teckchandani, and in this episode, we're going to ask an important question: Is it time to take Bitcoin seriously?

Vishal Teckchandani：欢迎购买，持有，出售。我叫Vishal Teckchandani，在这一集中，我们要问一个重要的问题：是时候认真对待比特币了吗？

To challenge our thinking, I'm joined by Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. Will they warn us to steer clear of crypto and explore better alternatives, or is this an asset class you might want to consider, even as a small satellite position?

为了挑战我们的思想，来自Viola私人财富的Charlie Viola和Shaw和Partners的Adam Dawes也加入了我的行列。他们会警告我们避开加密货币并探索更好的替代方案，还是这是您可能要考虑的资产类别，即使是小型卫星位置？

Adam, I'll start with you. Charlie, welcome. Does crypto as an asset class belong in an investor's portfolio - yay or nay? Why or why not?

亚当，我将从你开始。查理，欢迎。加密作为资产类别是否属于投资者的投资组合 - 是的？为什么或为什么不呢？

Dawes says crypto has a place, but Viola isn't convinced

Dawes说加密有一个地方，但中提琴并不相信

Adam Dawes: Yes, I think it does. Even though it's been around for over a decade, it's still in its infancy. I see it as part of an investment case. We're seeing larger fund managers and institutional buyers coming in. That said, there have been some disasters - Mt. Gox and the Trump meme coin are classic examples of pump-and-dump schemes. You have to be cautious. Cold storage wallets are probably the safest way to go - taking Bitcoin out of the system and keeping it secure. But yes, I do consider it an asset class that should be considered, albeit in a small allocation within a portfolio.

亚当·道斯（Adam Dawes）：是的，我认为确实如此。即使已经存在了十多年，但仍处于起步阶段。我认为这是投资案例的一部分。我们正在看到更大的基金经理和机构买家进来。也就是说，有一些灾难 - 戈克斯山和特朗普模因硬币是泵和降低计划的经典例子。你必须谨慎。冷藏钱包可能是最安全的方法 - 从系统中取出比特币并确保其安全。但是，是的，我确实认为这是一个应该考虑的资产类别，尽管在投资组合中的一个小分配中。

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Well, Adam's clearly a fan. Charlie, what about you?

Vishal Teckchandani：好的。好吧，亚当显然是粉丝。查理，你呢？

Charlie Viola: No, not really. I'll be honest. We advise high-net-worth clients, and our stance is that if they want exposure, it should be a very small part of a well-diversified portfolio. But we don't specifically allocate to it. The lack of regulation, extreme volatility, and uncertainty around its price drivers - whether it's sentiment, Elon Musk tweeting, or Trump launching a coin - make it difficult to justify as a core investment. Over the years, we've also seen that it doesn’t function as a hedge; it tends to correlate with financial markets. So while we won’t stop clients from investing in it, we're certainly not building portfolios around crypto.

查理中提琴：不，不是。老实说。我们建议高净值客户的客户，我们的立场是，如果他们想要曝光，那应该是多元化投资组合的很小一部分。但是我们不是专门分配的。不足的监管，极端波动和价格驱动因素的不确定性 - 无论是情感，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）发推文还是特朗普发起的硬币 - 使得很难作为核心投资合理。多年来，我们还看到它并不是对冲。它倾向于与金融市场相关。因此，尽管我们不会阻止客户对其进行投资，但我们当然不会在加密货币周围建立投资组合。

Major names are backing crypto, why isn't Viola?

主要名称在支持加密货币，为什么不呢？

Vishal Teckchandani: So, Charlie, while you'll execute trades for clients, let me play devil’s advocate. Looking at recent events - Donald Trump wants the U.S. to be the crypto capital of the world, Larry Fink has been vocal about Bitcoin, and ETF providers like VanEck, Monochrome, and Betashares are putting their name behind it - what would it take to convince you to allocate Bitcoin in Viola Private Wealth’s portfolios?

Vishal Teckchandani：所以，查理，虽然您将为客户执行交易，但让我扮演Devil的倡导者。研究最近的事件 - 唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）希望美国成为世界的加密之都，拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）一直对比特币发声，而诸如Vaneck，Monochrome和Betashares之类的ETF提供商正在将他们的名字贴在后面 - 说服您要说服您在Viola Private Private Private Wealth的Portfolios中分配比特币？

Charlie Viola: More robust regulation would be a good start. Also, safer ways to invest in it. To Adam’s point, some of the new ETFs are appealing - Monochrome’s Bitcoin ETF (CBOE: IBTC), for example, closely tracks the price of Bitcoin, with minimal tracking error. If we were to allocate to Bitcoin, we’d do it through a vehicle like that. But we need greater regulatory oversight and a clearer understanding of its underlying use case. Unlike tech companies, which generate earnings and add value, Bitcoin doesn’t produce revenue - it's purely speculative.

查理·维奥拉（Charlie Viola）：更强大的法规将是一个良好的开始。另外，更安全的投资方式。就亚当的观点而言，一些新的ETF很吸引人 - 例如，单色的比特币ETF（CBOE：IBTC），仔细跟踪比特币的价格，并且跟踪错误最小。如果我们要分配给比特币，我们将通过这样的车辆进行。但是，我们需要更大的监管监督，并对其潜在用例有更清晰的了解。与产生收益并增加价值的科技公司不同，比特币不会产生收入，这纯粹是投机性的。

Vishal Teckchandani: Fair point. Now, Adam, Bitcoin does do something - it goes up, it goes down, and then it goes up again. What convinced you to include it in portfolios? And if I may ask, what is your asset allocation within portfolios for digital assets?

Vishal Teckchandani：公平点。现在，亚当，比特币确实做了一些事情 - 它上升了，下降了，然后又上升了。是什么说服您将其包括在投资组合中？如果我可以问，您在数字资产投资组合中的资产分配是什么？

Adam Dawes:

亚当·道斯（Adam Dawes）：