投資者應該開始認真對待比特幣嗎？

億萬富翁對沖基金經理保羅·厄爾·瓊斯（Paul Tudor Jones）著名地稱'87墜機事故，他在2020年大膽地押注比特幣。

If you're reading this, chances are you've encountered the swirling rumors of Bitcoin's ascent. But should investors finally start taking it seriously, just as we should have taken tech stocks more seriously in the 2010s?

如果您正在閱讀本文，那麼您很可能會遇到比特幣上升的漩渦謠言。但是，投資者最終是否應該開始認真對待它，就像我們應該在2010年代更加認真對待技術股票嗎？

Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge fund manager who famously called the ’87 crash, made a bold bet on Bitcoin in 2020. Since then, it’s surged over 1,200%. His reasoning? If beating inflation is a race, Bitcoin is the fastest horse.

億萬富翁對沖基金經理保羅·厄爾·瓊斯（Paul Tudor Jones）著名地稱'87墜機事故，他在2020年大膽地押注比特幣。從那時起，它的飆升超過了1,200％。他的理由？如果擊敗通貨膨脹是一場比賽，比特幣是最快的馬。

Yet, many investors remain skeptical. Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin has no cash flows, no earnings, and no tangible value - making it easy to dismiss. But are we making the same mistake with Bitcoin that skeptics made with Amazon and Apple decades ago?

然而，許多投資者仍然持懷疑態度。與傳統資產不同，比特幣沒有現金流量，沒有收入，也沒有切實的價值 - 使其容易被解僱。但是，幾十年前，我們對比特幣犯了同樣的錯誤嗎？

With cryptocurrency markets maturing, institutional adoption accelerating, and Bitcoin hitting record highs (until the recent dip), the case for including it in a portfolio is stronger than ever. Is it time to move past old biases and rethink its place in a portfolio?

隨著加密貨幣市場的成熟，機構採用的加速和比特幣達到創紀錄的高點（直到最近的下降），將其包括在投資組合中的情況比以往任何時候都更強大。是時候轉移舊偏見並重新考慮其在投資組合中的位置了嗎？

To break it down, we’re joined by Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners.

為了分解它，來自Viola私人財富的Charlie Viola和Shaw和Partners的Adam Dawes加入了我們的行列。

Other ways to listen:

聽取的其他方式：

Edited Transcript:

編輯成績單：

Vishal Teckchandani: Welcome to Buy, Hold, Sell. My name is Vishal Teckchandani, and in this episode, we're going to ask an important question: Is it time to take Bitcoin seriously?

Vishal Teckchandani：歡迎購買，持有，出售。我叫Vishal Teckchandani，在這一集中，我們要問一個重要的問題：是時候認真對待比特幣了嗎？

To challenge our thinking, I'm joined by Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. Will they warn us to steer clear of crypto and explore better alternatives, or is this an asset class you might want to consider, even as a small satellite position?

為了挑戰我們的思想，來自Viola私人財富的Charlie Viola和Shaw和Partners的Adam Dawes也加入了我的行列。他們會警告我們避開加密貨幣並探索更好的替代方案，還是這是您可能要考慮的資產類別，即使是小型衛星位置？

Adam, I'll start with you. Charlie, welcome. Does crypto as an asset class belong in an investor's portfolio - yay or nay? Why or why not?

亞當，我將從你開始。查理，歡迎。加密作為資產類別是否屬於投資者的投資組合 - 是的？為什麼或為什麼不呢？

Dawes says crypto has a place, but Viola isn't convinced

Dawes說加密有一個地方，但中提琴並不相信

Adam Dawes: Yes, I think it does. Even though it's been around for over a decade, it's still in its infancy. I see it as part of an investment case. We're seeing larger fund managers and institutional buyers coming in. That said, there have been some disasters - Mt. Gox and the Trump meme coin are classic examples of pump-and-dump schemes. You have to be cautious. Cold storage wallets are probably the safest way to go - taking Bitcoin out of the system and keeping it secure. But yes, I do consider it an asset class that should be considered, albeit in a small allocation within a portfolio.

亞當·道斯（Adam Dawes）：是的，我認為確實如此。即使已經存在了十多年，但仍處於起步階段。我認為這是投資案例的一部分。我們正在看到更大的基金經理和機構買家進來。也就是說，有一些災難 - 戈克斯山和特朗普模因硬幣是泵和降低計劃的經典例子。你必須謹慎。冷藏錢包可能是最安全的方法 - 從系統中取出比特幣並確保其安全。但是，是的，我確實認為這是一個應該考慮的資產類別，儘管在投資組合中的一個小分配中。

Vishal Teckchandani: Okay. Well, Adam's clearly a fan. Charlie, what about you?

Vishal Teckchandani：好的。好吧，亞當顯然是粉絲。查理，你呢？

Charlie Viola: No, not really. I'll be honest. We advise high-net-worth clients, and our stance is that if they want exposure, it should be a very small part of a well-diversified portfolio. But we don't specifically allocate to it. The lack of regulation, extreme volatility, and uncertainty around its price drivers - whether it's sentiment, Elon Musk tweeting, or Trump launching a coin - make it difficult to justify as a core investment. Over the years, we've also seen that it doesn’t function as a hedge; it tends to correlate with financial markets. So while we won’t stop clients from investing in it, we're certainly not building portfolios around crypto.

查理中提琴：不，不是。老實說。我們建議高淨值客戶的客戶，我們的立場是，如果他們想要曝光，那應該是多元化投資組合的很小一部分。但是我們不是專門分配的。不足的監管，極端波動和價格驅動因素的不確定性 - 無論是情感，埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）發推文還是特朗普發起的硬幣 - 使得很難作為核心投資合理。多年來，我們還看到它並不是對沖。它傾向於與金融市場相關。因此，儘管我們不會阻止客戶對其進行投資，但我們當然不會在加密貨幣周圍建立投資組合。

Major names are backing crypto, why isn't Viola?

主要名稱在支持加密貨幣，為什麼不呢？

Vishal Teckchandani: So, Charlie, while you'll execute trades for clients, let me play devil’s advocate. Looking at recent events - Donald Trump wants the U.S. to be the crypto capital of the world, Larry Fink has been vocal about Bitcoin, and ETF providers like VanEck, Monochrome, and Betashares are putting their name behind it - what would it take to convince you to allocate Bitcoin in Viola Private Wealth’s portfolios?

Vishal Teckchandani：所以，查理，雖然您將為客戶執行交易，但讓我扮演Devil的倡導者。研究最近的事件 - 唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）希望美國成為世界的加密之都，拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）一直對比特幣發聲，而諸如Vaneck，Monochrome和Betashares之類的ETF提供商正在將他們的名字貼在後面 - 說服您要說服您在Viola Private Private Private Wealth的Portfolios中分配比特幣？

Charlie Viola: More robust regulation would be a good start. Also, safer ways to invest in it. To Adam’s point, some of the new ETFs are appealing - Monochrome’s Bitcoin ETF (CBOE: IBTC), for example, closely tracks the price of Bitcoin, with minimal tracking error. If we were to allocate to Bitcoin, we’d do it through a vehicle like that. But we need greater regulatory oversight and a clearer understanding of its underlying use case. Unlike tech companies, which generate earnings and add value, Bitcoin doesn’t produce revenue - it's purely speculative.

查理·維奧拉（Charlie Viola）：更強大的法規將是一個良好的開始。另外，更安全的投資方式。就亞當的觀點而言，一些新的ETF很吸引人 - 例如，單色的比特幣ETF（CBOE：IBTC），仔細跟踪比特幣的價格，並且跟踪錯誤最小。如果我們要分配給比特幣，我們將通過這樣的車輛進行。但是，我們需要更大的監管監督，並對其潛在用例有更清晰的了解。與產生收益並增加價值的科技公司不同，比特幣不會產生收入，這純粹是投機性的。

Vishal Teckchandani: Fair point. Now, Adam, Bitcoin does do something - it goes up, it goes down, and then it goes up again. What convinced you to include it in portfolios? And if I may ask, what is your asset allocation within portfolios for digital assets?

Vishal Teckchandani：公平點。現在，亞當，比特幣確實做了一些事情 - 它上升了，下降了，然後又上升了。是什麼說服您將其包括在投資組合中？如果我可以問，您在數字資產投資組合中的資產分配是什麼？

Adam Dawes:

亞當·道斯（Adam Dawes）：