英特尔 (INTC) 股票：到 2025 年是否会取得有意义的进展？

周四，英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）发布了截至 9 月的 2024 年第三季度收益报告。继 10 月中旬宣布裁员后出现下滑之后

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported its Q3 2024 earnings on Thursday. Following the mid-October dip after announced layoffs for November, INTC stock remained relatively flat, seeing a slight climb from $22.16 to $22.79 per share over those two weeks.

英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）周四公布了 2024 年第三季度收益。继 11 月宣布裁员后 10 月中旬下跌后，INTC 股价保持相对平稳，两周内从每股 22.16 美元小幅攀升至 22.79 美元。

The Q3 filing was received positively, as Intel managed to beat the revenue estimate of $13 billion at $13.28 billion. More importantly, Intel has an optimistic outlook for Q4, expecting to land between $13.3 billion and $14.3 billion revenue range, which is above the Wall Street consensus of $13.6 billion.

第三季度的财报获得了积极的反响，英特尔的营收达到 132.8 亿美元，超出了 130 亿美元的预期。更重要的是，英特尔对第四季度的前景持乐观态度，预计营收将在 133 亿美元至 143 亿美元之间，高于华尔街普遍预期的 136 亿美元。

Although still lagging considerably behind Nvidia and AMD on a year-to-date timeframe, with negative 52% returns, it appears that INTC stock found its bottom at the $21 per share range since mid-September. Based on Q3 earnings and strategic positioning, is there a meaningful headway for INTC stock into 2025?

尽管从年初至今的时间范围来看，INTC 的回报率仍远远落后于 Nvidia 和 AMD（负回报率为 52%），但 INTC 的股价似乎自 9 月中旬以来已在每股 21 美元的区间内触底。根据第三季度收益和战略定位，INTC 股票到 2025 年是否会有有意义的进展？

Let’s unpack the report and see what the future holds for the semiconductor giant.

让我们打开报告，看看这家半导体巨头的未来。

Recap of Intel’s Q3 Earnings

英特尔第三季度收益回顾

Compared to the year-ago quarter at $14.16 billion, the $13.28 billion revenue this quarter fell short by $874 million. Following the launch of standalone Altera company for the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) market in February, Altera’s revenue dropped by 44% YoY.

与去年同期的 141.6 亿美元相比，本季度 132.8 亿美元的收入减少了 8.74 亿美元。继2月份针对现场可编程门阵列（FPGA）市场推出独立的Altera公司后，Altera的收入同比下降了44%。

Expectedly, Intel Foundry’s revenue was the biggest loser, having its revenue decreased by 79% in the same period. This was offset by Intel’s data center and AI division (DCAI), which tracked 9% YoY growth. Due to the shift to lower-margin products catering to data centers and mobile, Intel’s gross margin dropped from 42.5% in Q3 2023 to $15%.

预计Intel Foundry的营收是最大的输家，同期营收下降了79%。这一增长被英特尔数据中心和人工智能部门 (DCAI) 的同比增长 9% 所抵消。由于转向面向数据中心和移动的低利润产品，英特尔的毛利率从 2023 年第三季度的 42.5% 下降至 15%。

Yet, despite the heavy investments in long-term R&D, production and labor costs, Intel’s operating cash flow remained strong at $5.1 billion vs $6.8 billion in 2023 (YTD). Excluding capital expenditures, one-time expenses and restructuring costs, Intel’s adjusted free cash flow improved by 93%.

然而，尽管在长期研发、生产和劳动力成本方面进行了大量投资，英特尔的运营现金流仍然强劲，达到 51 亿美元，而 2023 年（年初至今）为 68 亿美元。不计资本支出、一次性费用和重组成本，英特尔调整后的自由现金流改善了93%。

As mentioned previously, Intel is going ahead with its plan to cut its workforce by 16,500 employees, as a part of the $10 billion cost-cutting plan. One of the main reasons INTC stock had such poor performance was the investment in the exceedingly costly Intel Foundry. The long-term goal by 2030 is to position Intel as the world’s global chipmaker, behind TSMC and ahead of Samsung.

如前所述，英特尔将继续实施裁员 16,500 名员工的计划，作为 100 亿美元成本削减计划的一部分。 INTC股票表现如此糟糕的主要原因之一是对成本极高的英特尔代工厂的投资。到2030年的长期目标是让英特尔成为全球最大的芯片制造商，仅次于台积电，领先于三星。

To that end, Intel plans to make Intel Foundry as an independent subsidiary, separating it from the core Intel Products division. Such a move is likely to be welcomed by INTC shareholders, as Intel can allocate resources more effectively and potentially attract more external funding.

为此，英特尔计划将英特尔代工厂打造为独立子公司，将其从英特尔核心产品部门中分离出来。此举可能会受到INTC股东的欢迎，因为英特尔可以更有效地分配资源，并有可能吸引更多外部资金。

This will be much needed, given the fact that Intel reported its biggest income loss on record this quarter. Accounting for nine months ending September, Intel’s net loss amounted to $18.6 billion compared to a net loss of $1.28 billion in 2023 for the same period.

鉴于英特尔本季度公布了有记录以来最大的收入损失，这一点非常必要。截至 9 月份的 9 个月，英特尔的净亏损达 186 亿美元，而 2023 年同期净亏损为 12.8 亿美元。

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Intel’s Problematic CHIPS Act Injection

英特尔有问题的 CHIPS 法案注入

In a geopolitical move to curb China’s chip-making capability, the US government enacted multiple chip export controls alongside its partners. On the domestic side of that move, the U.S. Department of Commerce granted Intel $8.5 billion in direct funding, out of total $52 billion, under the CHIPS and Science Act umbrella.

为了遏制中国芯片制造能力的地缘政治举措，美国政府与其合作伙伴一起实施了多项芯片出口管制。在国内方面，美国商务部根据《芯片和科学法案》向英特尔提供了 520 亿美元的直接资金，其中 85 亿美元是直接资金。

On top of that, Intel gained eligibility for U.S. Treasury’s Investment Tax Credit (ITC), up to 25%, across its $100 billion capital investments. Lastly, USG secured favorable low-interest loans to Intel for up to $11 billion.

除此之外，英特尔还获得了美国财政部为其 1000 亿美元资本投资提供高达 25% 投资税收抵免 (ITC) 的资格。最后，USG 向英特尔获得了高达 110 亿美元的优惠低息贷款。

Although that sounds good on paper for INTC shareholders, it appears that none of that CHIPS money landed into Intel’s hands. Most recently on Wednesday, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine told reporters that he communicated with the White House to speed up the process.

尽管这对 INTC 股东来说表面上听起来不错，但 CHIPS 的资金似乎没有落入英特尔手中。最近周三，俄亥俄州州长迈克·德温告诉记者，他与白宫进行了沟通，以加快这一进程。

In January 2022, Intel announced plans to invest over $20 billion for semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Licking County, Ohio, as a part of its IDM 2.0 (Integrated Device Manufacturing) strategy.

2022 年 1 月，英特尔宣布计划投资超过 200 亿美元在俄亥俄州利金县建设半导体制造设施，作为其 IDM 2.0（集成设备制造）战略的一部分。

However, bureaucratic delays are not surprising. Notably, when the Biden admin announced the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program worth $42.45 billion in June 2023, it has yet to connect a single person.

然而，官僚主义的拖延并不令人意外。值得注意的是，当拜登政府于 2023 年 6 月宣布价值 424.5 亿美元的宽带公平接入和部署（BEAD）计划时，该计划尚未连接到任何人。

The Impact of US Presidential Elections on Intel

美国总统选举对英特尔的影响

During his appearance at The Joe Rogan Experience show,

在他出席乔·罗根体验秀期间，