英特爾 (INTC) 股票：到 2025 年是否會取得有意義的進展？

週四，英特爾（納斯達克股票代碼：INTC）發布了截至 9 月的 2024 年第三季財報。繼 10 月中旬宣布裁員後下滑之後

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported its Q3 2024 earnings on Thursday. Following the mid-October dip after announced layoffs for November, INTC stock remained relatively flat, seeing a slight climb from $22.16 to $22.79 per share over those two weeks.

英特爾（納斯達克股票代碼：INTC）週四公佈了 2024 年第三季收益。繼 11 月宣布裁員後 10 月中旬下跌後，INTC 股價保持相對平穩，兩週內從每股 22.16 美元小幅攀升至 22.79 美元。

The Q3 filing was received positively, as Intel managed to beat the revenue estimate of $13 billion at $13.28 billion. More importantly, Intel has an optimistic outlook for Q4, expecting to land between $13.3 billion and $14.3 billion revenue range, which is above the Wall Street consensus of $13.6 billion.

第三季的財報獲得了積極的反響，英特爾的營收達到 132.8 億美元，超出了 130 億美元的預期。更重要的是，英特爾對第四季的前景持樂觀態度，預計營收將在 133 億美元至 143 億美元之間，高於華爾街普遍預期的 136 億美元。

Although still lagging considerably behind Nvidia and AMD on a year-to-date timeframe, with negative 52% returns, it appears that INTC stock found its bottom at the $21 per share range since mid-September. Based on Q3 earnings and strategic positioning, is there a meaningful headway for INTC stock into 2025?

儘管從年初至今的時間範圍來看，INTC 的回報率仍遠遠落後於Nvidia 和AMD（負回報率為52%），但INTC 的股價似乎自9 月中旬以來已在每股21 美元的區間內觸底。根據第三季財報和策略定位，INTC 股票到 2025 年是否會有有意義的進展？

Let’s unpack the report and see what the future holds for the semiconductor giant.

讓我們打開報告，看看這家半導體巨頭的未來。

Recap of Intel’s Q3 Earnings

英特爾第三季財報回顧

Compared to the year-ago quarter at $14.16 billion, the $13.28 billion revenue this quarter fell short by $874 million. Following the launch of standalone Altera company for the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) market in February, Altera’s revenue dropped by 44% YoY.

與去年同期的 141.6 億美元相比，本季 132.8 億美元的營收減少了 8.74 億美元。繼2月針對現場可程式閘陣列（FPGA）市場推出獨立的Altera公司後，Altera的營收年減了44%。

Expectedly, Intel Foundry’s revenue was the biggest loser, having its revenue decreased by 79% in the same period. This was offset by Intel’s data center and AI division (DCAI), which tracked 9% YoY growth. Due to the shift to lower-margin products catering to data centers and mobile, Intel’s gross margin dropped from 42.5% in Q3 2023 to $15%.

預計Intel Foundry的營收是最大的輸家，同期營收下降了79%。這一成長被英特爾資料中心和人工智慧部門 (DCAI) 的年成長 9% 所抵消。由於轉向面向資料中心和行動的低利潤產品，英特爾的毛利率從 2023 年第三季的 42.5% 下降至 15%。

Yet, despite the heavy investments in long-term R&D, production and labor costs, Intel’s operating cash flow remained strong at $5.1 billion vs $6.8 billion in 2023 (YTD). Excluding capital expenditures, one-time expenses and restructuring costs, Intel’s adjusted free cash flow improved by 93%.

然而，儘管在長期研發、生產和勞動力成本方面進行了大量投資，英特爾的營運現金流仍然強勁，達到 51 億美元，而 2023 年（年初至今）為 68 億美元。不計資本支出、一次性費用和重組成本，英特爾調整後的自由現金流改善了93%。

As mentioned previously, Intel is going ahead with its plan to cut its workforce by 16,500 employees, as a part of the $10 billion cost-cutting plan. One of the main reasons INTC stock had such poor performance was the investment in the exceedingly costly Intel Foundry. The long-term goal by 2030 is to position Intel as the world’s global chipmaker, behind TSMC and ahead of Samsung.

如前所述，英特爾將繼續實施裁員 16,500 名員工的計劃，作為 100 億美元成本削減計劃的一部分。 INTC股票表現如此糟糕的主要原因之一是對成本極高的英特爾代工廠的投資。到2030年的長期目標是讓英特爾成為全球最大的晶片製造商，僅次於台積電，領先三星。

To that end, Intel plans to make Intel Foundry as an independent subsidiary, separating it from the core Intel Products division. Such a move is likely to be welcomed by INTC shareholders, as Intel can allocate resources more effectively and potentially attract more external funding.

為此，英特爾計劃將英特爾代工廠打造為獨立子公司，並將其從英特爾核心產品部門中分離出來。此舉可能會受到INTC股東的歡迎，因為英特爾可以更有效地分配資源，並有可能吸引更多外部資金。

This will be much needed, given the fact that Intel reported its biggest income loss on record this quarter. Accounting for nine months ending September, Intel’s net loss amounted to $18.6 billion compared to a net loss of $1.28 billion in 2023 for the same period.

鑑於英特爾本季公佈了有史以來最大的收入損失，這一點非常必要。截至 9 月的 9 個月，英特爾的淨虧損達 186 億美元，而 2023 年同期淨虧損為 12.8 億美元。

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Intel’s Problematic CHIPS Act Injection

英特爾有問題的 CHIPS 法案注入

In a geopolitical move to curb China’s chip-making capability, the US government enacted multiple chip export controls alongside its partners. On the domestic side of that move, the U.S. Department of Commerce granted Intel $8.5 billion in direct funding, out of total $52 billion, under the CHIPS and Science Act umbrella.

為了遏制中國晶片製造能力的地緣政治舉措，美國政府與其合作夥伴一起實施了多項晶片出口管制。在國內方面，美國商務部根據《晶片和科學法案》向英特爾提供了 520 億美元的直接資金，其中 85 億美元是直接資金。

On top of that, Intel gained eligibility for U.S. Treasury’s Investment Tax Credit (ITC), up to 25%, across its $100 billion capital investments. Lastly, USG secured favorable low-interest loans to Intel for up to $11 billion.

除此之外，英特爾還獲得了美國財政部為其 1,000 億美元資本投資提供高達 25% 投資稅收抵免 (ITC) 的資格。最後，USG 向英特爾獲得了高達 110 億美元的優惠低利率貸款。

Although that sounds good on paper for INTC shareholders, it appears that none of that CHIPS money landed into Intel’s hands. Most recently on Wednesday, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine told reporters that he communicated with the White House to speed up the process.

儘管這對 INTC 股東來說表面上聽起來不錯，但 CHIPS 的資金似乎沒有落入英特爾手中。最近週三，俄亥俄州州長麥克德溫告訴記者，他與白宮進行了溝通，以加快這一進程。

In January 2022, Intel announced plans to invest over $20 billion for semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Licking County, Ohio, as a part of its IDM 2.0 (Integrated Device Manufacturing) strategy.

2022 年 1 月，英特爾宣布計劃投資超過 200 億美元在俄亥俄州利金縣建造半導體製造設施，作為其 IDM 2.0（整合設備製造）策略的一部分。

However, bureaucratic delays are not surprising. Notably, when the Biden admin announced the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program worth $42.45 billion in June 2023, it has yet to connect a single person.

然而，官僚主義的拖延並不令人意外。值得注意的是，當拜登政府於 2023 年 6 月宣布價值 424.5 億美元的寬頻公平接入和部署（BEAD）計劃時，該計劃尚未連接到任何人。

The Impact of US Presidential Elections on Intel

美國總統選舉對英特爾的影響

During his appearance at The Joe Rogan Experience show,

在他出席喬羅根體驗秀期間，