香港现货比特币 ETF：准入有限，预期适中

现货比特币 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 定于 4 月 30 日在香港 (HK) 推出。然而，由于中央政府的持续禁令，中国大陆公民被禁止参与该市场。旨在防止金融不稳定和与虚拟货币交易相关的非法活动。因此，尽管香港 ETF 的推出令人兴奋，但中国大陆投资者将被排除在投资这些基金的机会之外。

Hong Kong's Spot Bitcoin ETFs: A Tale of Limited Access and Moderate Expectations

香港现货比特币 ETF：准入有限和预期适度的故事

The cryptocurrency market is poised to witness a significant development on April 30, 2024, with the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong (HK). These ETFs provide investors with a convenient and accessible way to gain exposure to the price movements of Bitcoin without directly owning the underlying cryptocurrency.

随着现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在香港 (HK) 的推出，加密货币市场将于 2024 年 4 月 30 日见证重大发展。这些 ETF 为投资者提供了一种便捷且易于获取的方式，无需直接拥有基础加密货币即可了解比特币的价格变动。

However, amidst the anticipation surrounding this milestone, a significant segment of potential investors are left on the sidelines due to China's ongoing ban on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This ban, implemented by the Chinese Central Government in 2021, prohibits the trading, mining, and use of cryptocurrencies within mainland China.

然而，在围绕这一里程碑的预期中，由于中国持续禁止比特币和其他加密货币，很大一部分潜在投资者仍处于观望状态。这项禁令由中国中央政府于 2021 年实施，禁止在中国大陆境内交易、开采和使用加密货币。

The rationale behind this prohibition stems from concerns expressed by the government regarding the potential of cryptocurrencies to disrupt economic and financial order, facilitate illegal and criminal activities, and pose risks to the security of individuals' assets.

这一禁令背后的理由源于政府对加密货币可能扰乱经济和金融秩序、促进非法和犯罪活动以及对个人资产安全构成风险的担忧。

Despite HK's status as a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, mainland Chinese citizens are barred from participating in the spot Bitcoin ETF market in HK. This restriction is a consequence of the central government's ban and its determination to maintain strict control over the financial activities of its citizens.

尽管香港是中国的特别行政区（SAR），但中国内地公民仍被禁止参与香港的比特币 ETF 现货市场。这一限制是中央政府的禁令及其对公民金融活动保持严格控制的决心的结果。

The impact of China's ban was confirmed by Bloomberg data analyst Jack Wang during a webinar on the subject. Wang attempted to establish a trade for a futures-based crypto ETF listed in HK, but his attempt was swiftly denied due to the restriction imposed by the mainland Chinese government.

彭博社数据分析师 Jack Wang 在有关该主题的网络研讨会上证实了中国禁令的影响。王试图建立在香港上市的基于期货的加密货币 ETF 的交易，但由于中国大陆政府的限制，他的尝试很快被拒绝。

Analysts believe that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK is unlikely to prompt the Chinese Central Government to reconsider its stance on cryptocurrencies. However, a report by Reuters in January 2024 indicated that mainland investors are exploring workarounds to these restrictions. They are reportedly utilizing over-the-counter (OTC) platforms and international crypto exchanges, such as Binance and OKX, to gain access to digital assets.

分析师认为，在香港推出现货比特币 ETF 不太可能促使中国中央政府重新考虑其对加密货币的立场。然而，路透社 2024 年 1 月的一份报告显示，内地投资者正在探索解决这些限制的方法。据报道，他们正在利用场外交易（OTC）平台和国际加密货币交易所（例如 Binance 和 OKX）来获取数字资产。

While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK represents a positive development for the cryptocurrency industry, it is expected to have a modest impact compared to the size and scale of the US ETF market. Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed a lukewarm reception to the upcoming launch.

虽然在香港推出现货比特币 ETF 代表了加密货币行业的积极发展，但与美国 ETF 市场的规模和规模相比，预计影响不大。彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 对即将推出的产品表示冷淡。

Balchunas anticipates that the combined inflows into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK will be limited to approximately $500 million, significantly lower than the estimates of $25 billion that have been circulating in the market. He attributes this lower estimate to the relatively small size of the HK ETF market, which is valued at around $50 billion, and the absence of major financial institutions participating in the launch.

Balchunas 预计，香港新的现货比特币 ETF 的总资金流入将限制在约 5 亿美元，远低于市场上流通的 250 亿美元的估计。他将这一较低的估计归因于香港ETF市场规模相对较小（估值约为500亿美元），并且缺乏主要金融机构参与推出。

In comparison, the US ETF market boasts large and well-established financial players such as BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity. Additionally, the US market benefits from the participation of a vast pool of investors who have embraced cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class.

相比之下，美国 ETF 市场拥有贝莱德 (BlackRock)、灰度 (Grayscale) 和富达 (Fidelity) 等大型且成熟的金融参与者。此外，美国市场受益于大量投资者的参与，他们将加密货币视为合法的资产类别。

In conclusion, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK is certainly a noteworthy development, but it is tempered by the exclusion of mainland Chinese investors due to the ongoing ban on cryptocurrencies in the country. The anticipated inflows into these ETFs are likely to be modest compared to their US counterparts, and it remains to be seen whether the Chinese government will reassess its stance on cryptocurrencies in the future.

总而言之，在香港推出现货比特币 ETF 无疑是一个值得注意的发展，但由于中国持续禁止加密货币，中国内地投资者被排除在外，这一发展受到了影响。与美国同行相比，预计流入这些 ETF 的资金可能较少，中国政府未来是否会重新评估其对加密货币的立场还有待观察。