香港現貨比特幣 ETF：進入有限，預期適中

現貨比特幣 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 定於 4 月 30 日在香港 (HK) 推出。和與虛擬貨幣交易相關的非法活動。因此，儘管香港 ETF 的推出令人興奮，但中國大陸投資者將被排除在投資這些基金的機會之外。

Hong Kong's Spot Bitcoin ETFs: A Tale of Limited Access and Moderate Expectations

香港現貨比特幣 ETF：進入有限且預期適度的故事

The cryptocurrency market is poised to witness a significant development on April 30, 2024, with the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong (HK). These ETFs provide investors with a convenient and accessible way to gain exposure to the price movements of Bitcoin without directly owning the underlying cryptocurrency.

隨著現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在香港 (HK) 的推出，加密貨幣市場將於 2024 年 4 月 30 日見證重大發展。這些 ETF 為投資者提供了一種便捷且易於獲取的方式，無需直接擁有基礎加密貨幣即可了解比特幣的價格變動。

However, amidst the anticipation surrounding this milestone, a significant segment of potential investors are left on the sidelines due to China's ongoing ban on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This ban, implemented by the Chinese Central Government in 2021, prohibits the trading, mining, and use of cryptocurrencies within mainland China.

然而，在圍繞這一里程碑的預期中，由於中國持續禁止比特幣和其他加密貨幣，很大一部分潛在投資者仍處於觀望狀態。這項禁令由中國中央政府於 2021 年實施，禁止在中國大陸境內交易、開採和使用加密貨幣。

The rationale behind this prohibition stems from concerns expressed by the government regarding the potential of cryptocurrencies to disrupt economic and financial order, facilitate illegal and criminal activities, and pose risks to the security of individuals' assets.

這項禁令背後的理由源自於政府對加密貨幣可能擾亂經濟和金融秩序、促進非法和犯罪活動以及對個人資產安全構成風險的擔憂。

Despite HK's status as a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, mainland Chinese citizens are barred from participating in the spot Bitcoin ETF market in HK. This restriction is a consequence of the central government's ban and its determination to maintain strict control over the financial activities of its citizens.

雖然香港是中國的特別行政區（SAR），但中國內地公民仍被禁止參與香港的比特幣 ETF 現貨市場。這項限制是中央政府的禁令及其對公民金融活動保持嚴格控制的決心的結果。

The impact of China's ban was confirmed by Bloomberg data analyst Jack Wang during a webinar on the subject. Wang attempted to establish a trade for a futures-based crypto ETF listed in HK, but his attempt was swiftly denied due to the restriction imposed by the mainland Chinese government.

彭博數據分析師 Jack Wang 在有關該主題的網路研討會上證實了中國禁令的影響。王試圖建立在香港上市的基於期貨的加密貨幣 ETF 的交易，但由於中國大陸政府的限制，他的嘗試很快就被拒絕。

Analysts believe that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK is unlikely to prompt the Chinese Central Government to reconsider its stance on cryptocurrencies. However, a report by Reuters in January 2024 indicated that mainland investors are exploring workarounds to these restrictions. They are reportedly utilizing over-the-counter (OTC) platforms and international crypto exchanges, such as Binance and OKX, to gain access to digital assets.

分析師認為，在香港推出現貨比特幣 ETF 不太可能促使中國中央政府重新考慮對加密貨幣的立場。然而，路透社 2024 年 1 月的一份報告顯示，內地投資者正在探索解決這些限制的方法。據報道，他們正在利用場外交易（OTC）平台和國際加密貨幣交易所（例如 Binance 和 OKX）來獲取數位資產。

While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK represents a positive development for the cryptocurrency industry, it is expected to have a modest impact compared to the size and scale of the US ETF market. Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed a lukewarm reception to the upcoming launch.

雖然在香港推出現貨比特幣 ETF 代表了加密貨幣行業的積極發展，但與美國 ETF 市場的規模和規模相比，預計影響不大。彭博社資深 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 對即將推出的產品表示冷淡。

Balchunas anticipates that the combined inflows into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK will be limited to approximately $500 million, significantly lower than the estimates of $25 billion that have been circulating in the market. He attributes this lower estimate to the relatively small size of the HK ETF market, which is valued at around $50 billion, and the absence of major financial institutions participating in the launch.

Balchunas 預計，香港新的現貨比特幣 ETF 的總資金流入將限制在約 5 億美元，遠低於市場上流通的 250 億美元的估計值。他將這一較低的估計歸因於香港ETF市場規模相對較小（估值約500億美元），並且缺乏主要金融機構參與推出。

In comparison, the US ETF market boasts large and well-established financial players such as BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity. Additionally, the US market benefits from the participation of a vast pool of investors who have embraced cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class.

相較之下，美國 ETF 市場擁有貝萊德 (BlackRock)、灰階 (Grayscale) 和富達 (Fidelity) 等大型且成熟的金融參與者。此外，美國市場受益於大量投資者的參與，他們將加密貨幣視為合法的資產類別。

In conclusion, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in HK is certainly a noteworthy development, but it is tempered by the exclusion of mainland Chinese investors due to the ongoing ban on cryptocurrencies in the country. The anticipated inflows into these ETFs are likely to be modest compared to their US counterparts, and it remains to be seen whether the Chinese government will reassess its stance on cryptocurrencies in the future.

總而言之，在香港推出現貨比特幣 ETF 無疑是一個值得注意的發展，但由於中國持續禁止加密貨幣，中國內地投資者被排除在外，這一發展受到了影響。與美國同業相比，預計流入這些 ETF 的資金可能較少，中國政府未來是否會重新評估對加密貨幣的立場還有待觀察。