美国银行警告称，标普 500 指数面临 2025 年“平淡”的更大风险

美国银行分析师表示，在连续两年强劲增长之后，标普 500 指数面临着 2025 年“平淡”的更大风险。

After two consecutive years of strong growth, the S&P 500 might face risks of weaker performance in 2025, analysts at Bank of America (BAC) warn.

美国银行 (BAC) 分析师警告称，在连续两年强劲增长后，标准普尔 500 指数可能在 2025 年面临表现疲软的风险。

In a recent note, Stephen Suttmeier and his team highlighted concerns that the index could become a “victim of its own success.”

在最近的一份报告中，斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔和他的团队强调了对该指数可能成为“自身成功的受害者”的担忧。

A Record-Breaking Streak

连续破纪录

The S&P 500 recorded an impressive 23.3% gain in 2024, marking its best two-year performance since 1997–1998. This surge was largely driven by a resilient U.S. economy, cooling inflation, and a wave of optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

标准普尔 500 指数在 2024 年录得令人印象深刻的 23.3% 涨幅，创下 1997-1998 年以来最好的两年表现。这一激增主要是由美国经济的弹性、通胀降温以及围绕人工智能的乐观情绪推动的。

However, analysts now caution that the momentum from 2023 and 2024 may not extend into 2025. While a resilient economy and a Federal Reserve pivot from rate hikes to cuts offer optimism, there are still uncertainties regarding the pace and impact of further rate reductions.

然而，分析师现在警告称，2023年和2024年的势头可能不会延续到2025年。尽管经济的韧性和美联储从加息转向降息的转变带来了乐观情绪，但进一步降息的速度和影响仍存在不确定性。

Fed Policy and Inflation Worries

美联储政策和通胀担忧

A key factor in 2025’s market outlook is the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Despite a cumulative 1% rate cut in 2024, Fed minutes reveal hesitation to proceed aggressively.

2025年市场前景的一个关键因素是美联储对货币宽松的谨慎立场。尽管美联储在 2024 年累计降息 1%，但会议纪要显示出对于是否大幅降息犹豫不决。

Concerns about potential inflationary pressures—exacerbated by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed import tariffs—have fueled calls for a more measured approach to further rate cuts.

对潜在通胀压力的担忧——候任总统唐纳德·特朗普提议的进口关税加剧了这种担忧——促使人们呼吁采取更加谨慎的方式进一步降息。

The Fed minutes from the December meeting emphasized the need for prudence, reflecting fears that rapid cuts could backfire if inflation reignites. This uncertainty might weigh on investor sentiment and market performance in the months ahead.

美联储12月会议纪要强调了审慎的必要性，反映出人们担心如果通胀重新抬头，快速降息可能会适得其反。这种不确定性可能会影响未来几个月的投资者情绪和市场表现。

A Seasonal Red Flag

季节性危险信号

Adding to the caution, the S&P 500 defied its traditionally bullish December trend by falling 2.5% last month. Suttmeier warned that this deviation poses risks for the early months of 2025, including the first quarter and possibly the entire first half of the year.

令市场更加谨慎的是，标准普尔 500 指数上个月下跌 2.5%，一反 12 月传统看涨趋势。 Suttmeier 警告称，这种偏差会给 2025 年前几个月带来风险，包括第一季度，甚至可能是整个上半年。

Historically, while the S&P has extended multi-year rallies about two-thirds of the time, the returns in those third years have often been modest. Average and median gains during such periods tend to underwhelm compared to the preceding years.

从历史上看，虽然标准普尔指数在大约三分之二的时间里都会延续多年涨势，但第三年的回报往往并不高。与前几年相比，这些时期的平均收益和中值收益往往不那么令人印象深刻。

The Road Ahead

未来之路

The question for 2025 is whether the S&P 500 can maintain its upward trajectory or if the market will pause for consolidation. Analysts and investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve actions, economic resilience, and geopolitical developments for signals.

2025 年的问题是标准普尔 500 指数是否能够保持上涨轨迹，或者市场是否会暂停盘整。分析师和投资者将密切关注美联储的行动、经济弹性和地缘政治发展以寻找信号。

While the potential for another strong year isn’t off the table, the S&P 500’s past performance suggests a tempered outlook may be prudent as markets navigate an increasingly complex landscape.

尽管明年的强劲表现并非不可能，但标准普尔 500 指数过去的表现表明，随着市场面临日益复杂的形势，温和的前景可能是谨慎的。