美國銀行警告稱，標普 500 指數面臨 2025 年「平淡」的更大風險

美國銀行分析師表示，在連續兩年強勁成長之後，標普 500 指數面臨 2025 年「平淡」的更大風險。

After two consecutive years of strong growth, the S&P 500 might face risks of weaker performance in 2025, analysts at Bank of America (BAC) warn.

美國銀行 (BAC) 分析師警告稱，在連續兩年強勁增長後，標準普爾 500 指數可能在 2025 年面臨表現疲軟的風險。

In a recent note, Stephen Suttmeier and his team highlighted concerns that the index could become a “victim of its own success.”

在最近的一份報告中，史蒂芬·薩特邁爾和他的團隊強調了對該指數可能成為「自身成功的受害者」的擔憂。

A Record-Breaking Streak

連續破紀錄

The S&P 500 recorded an impressive 23.3% gain in 2024, marking its best two-year performance since 1997–1998. This surge was largely driven by a resilient U.S. economy, cooling inflation, and a wave of optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

標普 500 指數在 2024 年錄得令人印象深刻的 23.3% 漲幅，創下 1997-1998 年以來最好的兩年表現。這一激增主要是由美國經濟的彈性、通膨降溫以及圍繞人工智慧的樂觀情緒所推動的。

However, analysts now caution that the momentum from 2023 and 2024 may not extend into 2025. While a resilient economy and a Federal Reserve pivot from rate hikes to cuts offer optimism, there are still uncertainties regarding the pace and impact of further rate reductions.

然而，分析師現在警告稱，2023年和2024年的勢頭可能不會延續到2025年。存在不確定性。

Fed Policy and Inflation Worries

聯準會政策和通膨擔憂

A key factor in 2025’s market outlook is the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Despite a cumulative 1% rate cut in 2024, Fed minutes reveal hesitation to proceed aggressively.

2025年市場前景的關鍵因素是聯準會對貨幣寬鬆的謹慎立場。儘管聯準會在 2024 年累計降息 1%，但會議紀錄顯示出對於是否大幅降息猶豫不決。

Concerns about potential inflationary pressures—exacerbated by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed import tariffs—have fueled calls for a more measured approach to further rate cuts.

對潛在通膨壓力的擔憂——候任總統唐納德·川普提議的進口關稅加劇了這種擔憂——促使人們呼籲採取更加謹慎的方式進一步降息。

The Fed minutes from the December meeting emphasized the need for prudence, reflecting fears that rapid cuts could backfire if inflation reignites. This uncertainty might weigh on investor sentiment and market performance in the months ahead.

聯準會12月會議紀要強調了審慎的必要性，反映出人們擔心如果通膨重新抬頭，快速降息可能會適得其反。這種不確定性可能會影響未來幾個月的投資者情緒和市場表現。

A Seasonal Red Flag

季節性危險訊號

Adding to the caution, the S&P 500 defied its traditionally bullish December trend by falling 2.5% last month. Suttmeier warned that this deviation poses risks for the early months of 2025, including the first quarter and possibly the entire first half of the year.

令市場更加謹慎的是，標準普爾 500 指數上個月下跌 2.5%，一反 12 月傳統看漲趨勢。 Suttmeier 警告稱，這種偏差會為 2025 年前幾個月帶來風險，包括第一季度，甚至可能是整個上半年。

Historically, while the S&P has extended multi-year rallies about two-thirds of the time, the returns in those third years have often been modest. Average and median gains during such periods tend to underwhelm compared to the preceding years.

從歷史上看，雖然標準普爾指數在大約三分之二的時間內都會延續多年漲勢，但第三年的回報往往並不高。與前幾年相比，這些時期的平均收益和中位數收益往往不那麼令人印象深刻。

The Road Ahead

未來之路

The question for 2025 is whether the S&P 500 can maintain its upward trajectory or if the market will pause for consolidation. Analysts and investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve actions, economic resilience, and geopolitical developments for signals.

2025 年的問題是標準普爾 500 指數能否保持上漲軌跡，或者市場是否會暫停盤整。分析師和投資者將密切關注聯準會的行動、經濟彈性和地緣政治發展以尋找訊號。

While the potential for another strong year isn’t off the table, the S&P 500’s past performance suggests a tempered outlook may be prudent as markets navigate an increasingly complex landscape.

儘管明年的強勁表現並非不可能，但標準普爾 500 指數過去的表現表明，隨著市場面臨日益複雜的形勢，溫和的前景可能是謹慎的。