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没有人可以肯定知道,但我相信主要原因如下:
This cycle has been very tough for ETH. In 2022, when BTC was at the bottom of the bear market, many were talking about how ETH would easily reach $10,000 in this cycle. Now, many seem to doubt whether ETH can reach a new high this year.
对于ETH来说,这个周期非常困难。 2022年,当BTC处于熊市的底部时,许多人在谈论ETH在这个周期中如何轻松达到10,000美元。现在,许多人似乎怀疑ETH今年是否可以达到新的高位。
Given the current market sentiment, you really can't blame them; even ETC has recently outperformed ETH. But in my opinion, ETH's poor performance indicates that some significant changes are needed.
考虑到当前的市场情绪,您真的不能怪他们;甚至最近都优于ETH。但是我认为,ETH的性能差表明需要进行一些重大变化。
Why has ETH performed poorly in this cycle?
为什么ETH在这个周期中表现不佳?
No one can know for sure, but I believe the main reasons are as follows:
没有人可以肯定知道,但我相信主要原因如下:
With almost every Ethereum L2 launching a token, many Ethereum fans have started to choose to buy L2 tokens instead of ETH, significantly reducing the amount of funds flowing into ETH. If you are bullish on Solana without L2, then just buy SOL. But if you are bullish on ETH, there are dozens of ETH beta options available for purchase.
几乎每个以太坊L2都推出了代币,许多以太坊粉丝已经开始选择购买L2代币而不是ETH,从而大大减少了流入ETH的资金的数量。如果您对没有L2的Solana看涨,请购买SOL。但是,如果您对ETH看涨,则可以购买数十种ETH Beta选项。
There are currently over 100 Ethereum L2 projects. While moving funds from one L2 to another is not a problem for advanced DeFi users, it can be a nightmare for regular retail investors. Indeed, trading on Ethereum L2 is fast and cheap now, but until the cross-L2 user experience improves, L2 scaling won't help Ethereum achieve mass adoption.
目前有100多个以太坊L2项目。对于高级Defi用户而言,将资金从一个L2转移到另一个L2并不是问题,但对于常规零售投资者来说,这可能是一场噩梦。确实,以太坊L2的交易现在很快又便宜,但是在Cross-L2用户体验改善之前,L2缩放不能帮助以太坊实现大量采用。
In the last cycle, Ethereum was the leading L1 blockchain by all metrics.
在最后一个周期中,以太坊是所有指标的主要L1区块链。
While I believe it still has the best DeFi ecosystem, other L1s (like Solana) are now often surpassing it in revenue and DEX trading volume. I think this is partly due to their technological advancements.
尽管我认为它仍然具有最好的Defi生态系统,但其他L1(例如Solana)现在经常在收入和DEX交易量中超过它。我认为这部分是由于它们的技术进步。
Ethereum has made significant progress over the past few years, but some L1 competitors have progressed faster and are now able to offer a better user experience.
在过去的几年中,以太坊取得了重大进展,但是一些L1竞争对手的进步速度更快,现在能够提供更好的用户体验。
How can we make ETH great again?
我们如何再次使Eth伟大?
Here are some ideas:
这里有一些想法:
I believe these could be important steps in the right direction. Over the past few years, the Ethereum Foundation and its community seem to have become a bit complacent, which could cause long-term serious damage to the project.
我相信这些可能是朝着正确方向迈出的重要步骤。在过去的几年中,以太坊基金会及其社区似乎变得有些自满,这可能会对该项目造成长期严重破坏。
Ethereum is still the leading L1, but if it doesn't start adopting a winning mindset, other L1s with teams eager to win could also win the L1 war.
以太坊仍然是领先的L1,但是如果它没有开始采用获胜的心态,那么其他渴望获胜的L1也可能会赢得L1战争。
Fortunately, we have already seen some positive developments, especially from ecosystem projects trying to improve ETH sentiment:
幸运的是,我们已经看到了一些积极的发展,尤其是从试图改善道德情绪的生态系统项目中:
The first three items on the list above will certainly increase the adoption of Ethereum's second layer. But the real question is:
上面列表上的前三个项目肯定会增加以太坊第二层的采用。但是真正的问题是:
Will they also have a positive impact on ETH's price?
他们还会对ETH的价格产生积极影响吗?
But in my opinion, the most important things to make ETH rise again are:
但我认为,再次使ETH崛起的最重要的事情是:
An increase in ETH will benefit everyone holding altcoins. Historically, ETH's rise has been a catalyst for the altcoin market boom.
ETH的增加将使所有持有山寨币的人都受益。从历史上看,ETH的崛起一直是Altcoin市场繁荣的催化剂。
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