Grayscale 的 26 个加密货币信托：投资回报回顾

最近，灰度推出了乐观信托基金和丽都信托基金。其信托基金中，SUI和ZEN也尽管有所回调，但仍继续上涨。

Grayscale, a digital asset management company founded in 2013, offers a variety of crypto asset trust funds. These funds provide investors with legal and regulated investment channels. Grayscale is known for its large-scale crypto asset management, with billions of dollars in assets under management. To date, Grayscale has launched 26 crypto trusts.

Grayscale是一家数字资产管理公司，成立于2013年，提供多种加密资产信托基金。这些基金为投资者提供了合法、规范的投资渠道。灰度以其大规模的加密资产管理而闻名，管理着数十亿美元的资产。迄今为止，Grayscale 已推出 26 个加密货币信托。

Grayscale Trust Funds are crypto asset investment products that allow investors to indirectly hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum without directly purchasing and managing cryptocurrencies. Each trust fund is linked to a specific crypto asset, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHE). Through these trust funds, investors can buy and sell shares of crypto assets on the open market like investing in traditional stocks.

灰度信托基金是加密资产投资产品，允许投资者间接持有比特币和以太坊等加密货币，而无需直接购买和管理加密货币。每个信托基金都与特定的加密资产挂钩，例如灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）和灰度以太坊信托基金（ETHE）。通过这些信托基金，投资者可以像投资传统股票一样在公开市场上买卖加密资产的股票。

In addition to single-currency trust funds, Grayscale's basket of currency combination funds also have strong investment reference significance. Currently, Grayscale's crypto trusts, except for ETFs, have three main product cycles.

除了单币种信托基金外，灰度的一揽子货币组合基金也具有很强的投资参考意义。目前，灰度旗下的加密信托除ETF外，主要有三个产品周期。

According to the report, Grayscale had a significant impact on cryptocurrencies during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, where it greatly increased the asset size of the Bitcoin Trust and introduced a large number of institutional investors to the crypto field. Other crypto tokens launched by Grayscale during this period have performed differently in the short term and are unlikely to fare better than BTC in the long term.

报告称，灰度在2020年至2021年的牛市期间对加密货币产生了重大影响，大幅增加了比特币信托的资产规模，并将大量机构投资者引入加密领域。在此期间灰度推出的其他加密代币短期表现有所不同，从长期来看不太可能比比特币表现更好。

To track the investment return rate of Grayscale Fund, I recorded the token price when Grayscale Fund launched the trust and the token price on December 23, and made the above chart. In terms of time, Grayscale launched crypto trust products in 2018 and 2021, which were mostly at the peak or the second half of the bull market. This phenomenon may be related to the relatively long cycle and relatively mature market required for Grayscale to launch funds. In December this year, Grayscale began to launch trust funds in a concentrated manner. Can it break the cycle of short-term highs this time?

为了追踪灰度基金的投资回报率，我记录了灰度基金推出信托时的代币价格以及12月23日的代币价格，并做了上图。从时间上看，灰度在2018年和2021年推出了加密信托产品，大多处于牛市的顶峰或后半段。这种现象可能与灰度推出基金所需的周期较长、市场相对成熟有关。今年12月，灰度开始集中推出信托基金。这次能否打破短期高点的周期？

In terms of investment returns, in the long run, only about 48% of the tokens (including BTC and ETH) have a positive investment return, which is lower than the 50% probability of a random coin toss. Moreover, its investment return rate is far lower than that of BTC, showing a negative EV in the long run.

从投资回报来看，从长期来看，只有约48%的代币（包括BTC和ETH）有正的投资回报，低于随机抛硬币50%的概率。而且其投资回报率远低于BTC，长期EV呈负值。

In the short term, the tokens launched by Grayscale did have their moments of glory, but most of them occurred before their launch. XRP has not yet broken through its previous high even after a strong rebound, and ZEN has barely maintained an 18% return on investment after rising for three consecutive days. Although some star tokens have reached their highs after their launch, from a long-term annualized perspective, after a long 7-year holding period, their interest rates are even lower than 10%. However, different timing of position building has a more important impact on investment returns. If Grayscale concept coins are built in a bear market to buy the bottom, almost all of them will outperform the average increase in the bull market. At this time, the targets that have not yet shown obvious changes may see a good increase next year.

短期来看，灰度推出的代币确实有过辉煌时刻，但大多发生在推出之前。 XRP强劲反弹后仍未突破前期高点，而ZEN在连续三天上涨后也勉强维持了18%的投资回报率。虽然有些明星代币推出后已经达到了最高点，但从长期年化来看，经过7年的漫长持有期，其利率甚至低于10%。但不同的建仓时机对投资回报有着更为重要的影响。如果在熊市建灰度概念币抄底，几乎都会跑赢牛市的平均涨幅。此时，尚未出现明显变化的目标明年可能会出现不错的增长。

Grayscale's holdings of tokens have different indicative functions at different moments in the cycle. In this sense, Grayscale's strict selection does exist.

灰度持有的代币在周期的不同时刻具有不同的指示功能。从这个意义上来说，灰度的严选确实存在。