Grayscale 的 26 個加密貨幣信託：投資回報回顧

最近，灰階推出了樂觀信託基金和麗都信託基金。其信託基金中，SUI和ZEN也儘管有所回調，但仍持續上漲。

Grayscale, a digital asset management company founded in 2013, offers a variety of crypto asset trust funds. These funds provide investors with legal and regulated investment channels. Grayscale is known for its large-scale crypto asset management, with billions of dollars in assets under management. To date, Grayscale has launched 26 crypto trusts.

Grayscale是一家數位資產管理公司，成立於2013年，提供多種加密資產信託基金。這些基金為投資者提供了合法、規範的投資管道。灰階以其大規模的加密資產管理而聞名，管理著數十億美元的資產。迄今為止，Grayscale 已推出 26 個加密貨幣信託。

Grayscale Trust Funds are crypto asset investment products that allow investors to indirectly hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum without directly purchasing and managing cryptocurrencies. Each trust fund is linked to a specific crypto asset, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHE). Through these trust funds, investors can buy and sell shares of crypto assets on the open market like investing in traditional stocks.

灰階信託基金是加密資產投資產品，讓投資者間接持有比特幣和以太幣等加密貨幣，而無需直接購買和管理加密貨幣。每個信託基金都與特定的加密資產掛鉤，例如灰階比特幣信託基金（GBTC）和灰階以太坊信託基金（ETHE）。透過這些信託基金，投資人可以像投資傳統股票一樣在公開市場上買賣加密資產的股票。

In addition to single-currency trust funds, Grayscale's basket of currency combination funds also have strong investment reference significance. Currently, Grayscale's crypto trusts, except for ETFs, have three main product cycles.

除了單幣種信託基金外，灰階的一籃子貨幣組合基金也具有強烈的投資參考意義。目前，灰階旗下的加密信託除ETF外，主要有三個產品週期。

According to the report, Grayscale had a significant impact on cryptocurrencies during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, where it greatly increased the asset size of the Bitcoin Trust and introduced a large number of institutional investors to the crypto field. Other crypto tokens launched by Grayscale during this period have performed differently in the short term and are unlikely to fare better than BTC in the long term.

報告稱，灰階在2020年至2021年的多頭市場期間對加密貨幣產生了重大影響，大幅增加了比特幣信託的資產規模，並將大量機構投資者引入加密領域。在此期間灰階推出的其他加密代幣短期表現有所不同，長期來看不太可能比比特幣表現更好。

To track the investment return rate of Grayscale Fund, I recorded the token price when Grayscale Fund launched the trust and the token price on December 23, and made the above chart. In terms of time, Grayscale launched crypto trust products in 2018 and 2021, which were mostly at the peak or the second half of the bull market. This phenomenon may be related to the relatively long cycle and relatively mature market required for Grayscale to launch funds. In December this year, Grayscale began to launch trust funds in a concentrated manner. Can it break the cycle of short-term highs this time?

為了追蹤灰階基金的投資報酬率，我記錄了灰階基金推出信託時的代幣價格以及12月23日的代幣價格，並做了上圖。從時間上看，灰階在2018年和2021年推出了加密信託產品，大多處於多頭市場的頂峰或後半段。這種現象可能與灰階推出基金所需的週期較長、市場相對成熟有關。今年12月，灰階開始集中推出信託基金。這次能否打破短期高點的周期？

In terms of investment returns, in the long run, only about 48% of the tokens (including BTC and ETH) have a positive investment return, which is lower than the 50% probability of a random coin toss. Moreover, its investment return rate is far lower than that of BTC, showing a negative EV in the long run.

從投資回報來看，長期來看，只有約48%的代幣（包括BTC和ETH）有正的投資回報，低於隨機拋硬幣50%的機率。而其投資報酬率遠低於BTC，長期EV呈負值。

In the short term, the tokens launched by Grayscale did have their moments of glory, but most of them occurred before their launch. XRP has not yet broken through its previous high even after a strong rebound, and ZEN has barely maintained an 18% return on investment after rising for three consecutive days. Although some star tokens have reached their highs after their launch, from a long-term annualized perspective, after a long 7-year holding period, their interest rates are even lower than 10%. However, different timing of position building has a more important impact on investment returns. If Grayscale concept coins are built in a bear market to buy the bottom, almost all of them will outperform the average increase in the bull market. At this time, the targets that have not yet shown obvious changes may see a good increase next year.

短期來看，灰階推出的代幣確實有過輝煌時刻，但大多發生在推出之前。 XRP強勁反彈後仍未突破前期高點，而ZEN在連續三天上漲後也勉強維持了18%的投資回報率。雖然有些明星代幣推出後已經達到了最高點，但從長期年化來看，經過7年的漫長持有期，其利率甚至低於10%。但不同的建倉時機對投資報酬率有著更重要的影響。如果在熊市建灰階概念幣抄底，幾乎都會跑贏多頭市場的平均漲幅。此時，尚未出現明顯變化的目標明年可能會出現不錯的成長。

Grayscale's holdings of tokens have different indicative functions at different moments in the cycle. In this sense, Grayscale's strict selection does exist.

灰度持有的代幣在周期的不同時刻有不同的指示功能。從這個意義上來說，灰階的嚴選確實存在。