黄金和比特币ETF：在投资格局中共存，而不是竞争

尽管比特币 ETF 兴起，但摩根大通的分析显示，投资者并没有大批放弃黄金 ETF。自 2022 年 4 月以来，黄金 ETF 一直面临资金外流，而央行和私人投资者则继续积累实物黄金，这表明黄金 ETF 正在转向有形资产和储备多元化，而不是大规模逃往比特币。

Gold and Bitcoin ETFs: A Tale of Coexistence, Not Competition

黄金和比特币 ETF：共存而不是竞争

Amidst the ongoing crypto-currency craze, the potential impact of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the gold market has been a subject of much speculation. While some have suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could cannibalize gold ETFs, recent analysis from JPMorgan Chase & Co. paints a more nuanced picture, revealing that the rise of Bitcoin ETFs has not significantly impacted the demand for gold ETFs or physical gold.

在持续的加密货币热潮中，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）对黄金市场的潜在影响一直是很多猜测的话题。尽管一些人认为比特币 ETF 可能会蚕食黄金 ETF，但摩根大通最近的分析描绘了一幅更加微妙的图景，表明比特币 ETF 的崛起并未显着影响对黄金 ETF 或实物黄金的需求。

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Traction, But Gold ETFs Hold Steady

比特币 ETF 受到关注，但黄金 ETF 保持稳定

Since their introduction in the United States in October 2021, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant investment, amassing over $10.6 billion in global assets under management as of March 14, 2023. However, this growth has not come at the expense of gold ETFs. Despite the record price of gold reaching $2,200 per ounce, gold ETFs experienced a modest outflow of $7.7 billion during the same period.

自 2021 年 10 月在美国推出以来，比特币 ETF 吸引了大量投资，截至 2023 年 3 月 14 日，全球管理资产已超过 106 亿美元。然而，这种增长并没有以黄金 ETF 的发展为代价。尽管黄金价格达到创纪录的每盎司 2,200 美元，但同期黄金 ETF 却出现了 77 亿美元的小幅流出。

Gold ETF Outflows Precede Bitcoin ETF Introduction

黄金 ETF 资金流出先于比特币 ETF 推出

JPMorgan's analysis indicates that the decline in gold ETF holdings began in April 2022, several months before the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that the outflows were not driven by a shift to Bitcoin ETFs but rather by other factors, such as the rising interest rate environment and the perception of gold as a safe haven asset.

摩根大通的分析表明，黄金ETF持有量的下降始于2022年4月，比比特币ETF推出前几个月。这表明资金流出并非由转向比特币 ETF 驱动，而是由其他因素驱动，例如利率上升环境以及黄金作为避险资产的看法。

Diversification into Physical Gold

多元化投资实物黄金

Data from the World Gold Council reveals that private investors have allocated a substantial $229 billion to gold bars and coins between September 2020 and December 2023. This surge in physical gold demand suggests that investors are seeking diversification beyond ETFs, potentially driven by concerns about privacy and the traceability of digital assets.

世界黄金协会的数据显示，2020 年 9 月至 2023 年 12 月期间，私人投资者已向金条和金币投资了 2,290 亿美元。实物黄金需求的激增表明，投资者正在寻求 ETF 以外的多元化投资，这可能是出于对隐私和金币的担忧。数字资产的可追溯性。

Central Banks Drive Gold Accumulation

央行推动黄金积累

Central banks have also been active participants in the gold market, adding $155 billion to their reserves since 2020. This accumulation is not motivated by a desire to invest in Bitcoin but rather by the need to diversify their assets and reduce exposure to Western sanctions and custody arrangements.

各国央行也一直是黄金市场的积极参与者，自 2020 年以来，其储备增加了 1550 亿美元。这种积累并不是出于投资比特币的愿望，而是出于资产多元化并减少受到西方制裁和托管的风险的需要安排。

Bitcoin's Niche in the Investment Landscape

比特币在投资领域的利基市场

While Bitcoin ETFs have undoubtedly gained popularity, their inflows do not represent a mass exodus from gold. Direct sales of Bitcoin on exchanges have declined by $6 billion, suggesting that investors may be shifting existing crypto holdings into ETFs rather than injecting new capital into the crypto space.

虽然比特币 ETF 无疑受到了欢迎，但它们的流入并不代表黄金大量流出。比特币在交易所的直接销售额下降了 60 亿美元，这表明投资者可能会将现有的加密货币资产转移到 ETF，而不是向加密货币领域注入新资本。

Momentum Traders Add Complexity

动量交易者增加了复杂性

The investment dynamics surrounding gold and Bitcoin ETFs are further complicated by the presence of momentum traders, who have been purchasing futures contracts linked to both assets. This activity introduces another layer of complexity to the analysis of investment flows and market dynamics.

由于动量交易者的存在，围绕黄金和比特币 ETF 的投资动态变得更加复杂，他们一直在购买与这两种资产相关的期货合约。这项活动给投资流和市场动态的分析带来了另一层复杂性。

Expert Consensus: Gold's Appeal Endures

专家共识：黄金的吸引力持续存在

Experts from the World Gold Council, Morningstar, and various investment management firms agree that while some investors may be rotating from gold to Bitcoin, the broader investment landscape remains favorable for gold. Central banks and traditional gold buyers in emerging markets continue to allocate significant funds to the asset, and the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs are draining life out of gold investments does not hold up.

世界黄金协会、晨星公司和多家投资管理公司的专家一致认为，虽然一些投资者可能会从黄金转向比特币，但更广泛的投资格局仍然有利于黄金。新兴市场的央行和传统黄金买家继续向该资产配置大量资金，而比特币 ETF 正在耗尽黄金投资活力的说法并不成立。

The Future: Uncharted Territory

未来：未知领域

The future relationship between gold and Bitcoin ETFs remains uncertain. Bitcoin's digital appeal may continue to attract younger and tech-savvy investors, potentially leading to some displacement of gold ETFs. However, the gold market is vast and multifaceted, and ETFs are only one aspect of it. The enduring appeal of gold is likely to persist, albeit in different forms beyond the ETF sphere.

黄金和比特币 ETF 之间的未来关系仍不确定。比特币的数字吸引力可能会继续吸引年轻且精通技术的投资者，从而可能导致黄金 ETF 的部分取代。然而，黄金市场广阔且多元化，ETF只是其中的一方面。黄金的持久吸引力可能会持续存在，尽管在 ETF 领域之外以不同的形式出现。