黃金與比特幣ETF：在投資格局中共存，而不是競爭

儘管比特幣 ETF 興起，摩根大通的分析顯示，投資人並沒有大批放棄黃金 ETF。自 2022 年 4 月以來，黃金 ETF 一直面臨資金外流，而央行和私人投資者則繼續累積實體黃金，這表明黃金 ETF 正在轉向有形資產和儲備多元化，而不是大規模逃往比特幣。

Gold and Bitcoin ETFs: A Tale of Coexistence, Not Competition

黃金和比特幣 ETF：共存而不是競爭

Amidst the ongoing crypto-currency craze, the potential impact of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the gold market has been a subject of much speculation. While some have suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could cannibalize gold ETFs, recent analysis from JPMorgan Chase & Co. paints a more nuanced picture, revealing that the rise of Bitcoin ETFs has not significantly impacted the demand for gold ETFs or physical gold.

在持續的加密貨幣熱潮中，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）對黃金市場的潛在影響一直是許多猜測的話題。儘管有些人認為比特幣 ETF 可能會蠶食黃金 ETF，但摩根大通最近的分析描繪了一幅更微妙的圖景，表明比特幣 ETF 的崛起並未顯著影響對黃金 ETF 或實體黃金的需求。

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Traction, But Gold ETFs Hold Steady

比特幣 ETF 受到關注，但黃金 ETF 保持穩定

Since their introduction in the United States in October 2021, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant investment, amassing over $10.6 billion in global assets under management as of March 14, 2023. However, this growth has not come at the expense of gold ETFs. Despite the record price of gold reaching $2,200 per ounce, gold ETFs experienced a modest outflow of $7.7 billion during the same period.

自 2021 年 10 月在美國推出以來，比特幣 ETF 吸引了大量投資，截至 2023 年 3 月 14 日，全球管理資產已超過 106 億美元。然而，這種增長並沒有以黃金 ETF 的發展為代價。儘管黃金價格達到創紀錄的每盎司 2,200 美元，但同期黃金 ETF 卻出現了 77 億美元的小幅流出。

Gold ETF Outflows Precede Bitcoin ETF Introduction

黃金 ETF 資金流出先於比特幣 ETF 推出

JPMorgan's analysis indicates that the decline in gold ETF holdings began in April 2022, several months before the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that the outflows were not driven by a shift to Bitcoin ETFs but rather by other factors, such as the rising interest rate environment and the perception of gold as a safe haven asset.

摩根大通的分析表明，黃金ETF持有量的下降始於2022年4月，比比特幣ETF推出前幾個月。這表明資金流出並非由轉向比特幣 ETF 驅動，而是由其他因素驅動，例如利率上升環境以及黃金作為避險資產的看法。

Diversification into Physical Gold

多元化投資實體黃金

Data from the World Gold Council reveals that private investors have allocated a substantial $229 billion to gold bars and coins between September 2020 and December 2023. This surge in physical gold demand suggests that investors are seeking diversification beyond ETFs, potentially driven by concerns about privacy and the traceability of digital assets.

世界黃金協會的數據顯示，2020 年9 月至2023 年12 月期間，私人投資者已向金條和金幣投資了2,290 億美元。實體黃金需求的激增表明，投資者正在尋求ETF 以外的多元化投資，這可能是出於對隱私和金幣的擔憂。數位資產的可追溯性。

Central Banks Drive Gold Accumulation

央行推動黃金積累

Central banks have also been active participants in the gold market, adding $155 billion to their reserves since 2020. This accumulation is not motivated by a desire to invest in Bitcoin but rather by the need to diversify their assets and reduce exposure to Western sanctions and custody arrangements.

各國央行也一直是黃金市場的積極參與者，自2020 年以來，其儲備增加了1550 億美元。這種累積並不是出於投資比特幣的願望，而是出於資產多元化並減少受到西方制裁和託管的風險的需要安排。

Bitcoin's Niche in the Investment Landscape

比特幣在投資領域的利基市場

While Bitcoin ETFs have undoubtedly gained popularity, their inflows do not represent a mass exodus from gold. Direct sales of Bitcoin on exchanges have declined by $6 billion, suggesting that investors may be shifting existing crypto holdings into ETFs rather than injecting new capital into the crypto space.

雖然比特幣 ETF 無疑受到了歡迎，但它們的流入並不代表黃金大量流出。比特幣在交易所的直接銷售額下降了 60 億美元，這表明投資者可能會將現有的加密貨幣資產轉移到 ETF，而不是向加密貨幣領域注入新資本。

Momentum Traders Add Complexity

動量交易者增加了複雜性

The investment dynamics surrounding gold and Bitcoin ETFs are further complicated by the presence of momentum traders, who have been purchasing futures contracts linked to both assets. This activity introduces another layer of complexity to the analysis of investment flows and market dynamics.

由於動量交易者的存在，圍繞黃金和比特幣 ETF 的投資動態變得更加複雜，他們一直在購買與這兩種資產相關的期貨合約。這項活動為投資流和市場動態的分析帶來了另一層複雜性。

Expert Consensus: Gold's Appeal Endures

專家共識：黃金的吸引力持續存在

Experts from the World Gold Council, Morningstar, and various investment management firms agree that while some investors may be rotating from gold to Bitcoin, the broader investment landscape remains favorable for gold. Central banks and traditional gold buyers in emerging markets continue to allocate significant funds to the asset, and the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs are draining life out of gold investments does not hold up.

世界黃金協會、晨星公司和多家投資管理公司的專家一致認為，雖然一些投資者可能會從黃金轉向比特幣，但更廣泛的投資格局仍然有利於黃金。新興市場的央行和傳統黃金買家繼續向該資產配置大量資金，而比特幣 ETF 正在耗盡黃金投資活力的說法並不成立。

The Future: Uncharted Territory

未來：未知領域

The future relationship between gold and Bitcoin ETFs remains uncertain. Bitcoin's digital appeal may continue to attract younger and tech-savvy investors, potentially leading to some displacement of gold ETFs. However, the gold market is vast and multifaceted, and ETFs are only one aspect of it. The enduring appeal of gold is likely to persist, albeit in different forms beyond the ETF sphere.

黃金和比特幣 ETF 之間的未來關係仍不確定。比特幣的數位吸引力可能會繼續吸引年輕且精通技術的投資者，這可能會導致黃金 ETF 的部分取代。然而，黃金市場廣闊且多元化，ETF只是其中的一方面。黃金的持久吸引力可能會持續存在，儘管在 ETF 領域之外以不同的形式出現。