比特币 (BTC) 从 10 万美元价格点回撤，但专家预测随着市场复苏将带来回报

在连续几周的持续上涨之后，加密货币市场出现了暂时的下跌趋势，迫使大多数领先资产进入超买区域。

The crypto market took a downturn on Sunday as most of the leading assets recorded a price decline from their recent highs. This pullback comes after several weeks of a consistent uptick that forced many assets into the overbought territory.

周日，加密货币市场出现低迷，因为大多数主要资产的价格均从近期高点下跌。这次回调是在几周的持续上涨之后发生的，迫使许多资产进入超买区域。

Bitcoin (BTC), which recently traded as high as $99,646, withdrew to $95,500 on Sunday. Stellar Lumens (XLM) also declined to $0.44 from its monthly high of $0.63. Others affected by this pullback include Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), and Shiba Inu (ADA).

比特币（BTC）最近交易价格高达 99,646 美元，周日回落至 95,500 美元。 Stellar Lumens (XLM) 也从月度高点 0.63 美元跌至 0.44 美元。受此次回调影响的其他货币包括以太坊（ETH）、狗狗币（DOGE）、莱特币（LTC）、卡尔达诺（ADA）和柴犬（ADA）。

According to our market data, the total market capitalization declined by 2.4% within the period. This pullback also affected the futures market, with crypto-tracked futures recording a massive liquidation of $500 million in both longs and shorts.

根据我们的市场数据，期内总市值下降了2.4%。这种回调也影响了期货市场，加密货币追踪的期货多头和空头都出现了 5 亿美元的大规模清算。

Our analysis of the data from CNF discovered that $366 million of the recorded liquidations were in longs, while $127 million were in shorts. For the small altcoins and the futures tracking midcaps, more than $100 million were recorded in liquidation.

我们对 CNF 数据的分析发现，记录的清算中 3.66 亿美元是多头，而 1.27 亿美元是空头。对于小型山寨币和追踪中型股的期货，清算金额超过 1 亿美元。

However, the market appears to have recovered in the early hours of Monday, as Bitcoin stages a bullish reversal into $98k while the broad market losses reduce to under 2%.

然而，市场似乎在周一凌晨有所复苏，比特币出现看涨逆转，升至 9.8 万美元，而大盘跌幅则降至 2% 以下。

According to Jeff Mei, the COO of crypto exchange BTSE, Bitcoin could still return to $100k as key indicators suggest the large involvement of institutional investors.

加密货币交易所 BTSE 首席运营官 Jeff Mei 表示，由于关键指标表明机构投资者大量参与，比特币仍有可能重返 10 万美元。

Mei observed that funds would soon move into the Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and Solana once its ETF gets approved. He also predicted that this bull run could continue into 2025.

Mei 观察到，一旦 ETF 获得批准，资金将很快转移到以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 Solana。他还预测，这次牛市可能会持续到2025年。

“It’s clear that Bitcoin has been leading the market, a key indicator that much of the demand is driven by institutions buying ETFs. Hitting the $100K mark is very likely in the coming week. We also believe that institutions will start buying into the Ethereum ETFs soon and, hopefully, the Solana ones once they’re approved.”

“很明显，比特币一直引领市场，这一关键指标表明大部分需求是由购买 ETF 的机构推动的。未来一周很有可能达到 10 万美元大关。我们还相信，机构将很快开始购买以太坊 ETF，并希望在 Solana ETF 获得批准后也能购买。”

“With the stock market making steady gains and the Trump transition team meeting with several crypto executives to discuss pro-crypto policies, it looks promising that this rally will continue into 2025.”

“随着股市稳步上涨，以及特朗普过渡团队与几位加密货币高管会面讨论支持加密货币的政策，这种反弹看起来有望持续到 2025 年。”

While analysts believe that the current position of the Bitcoin price and the $100k price point is just separated by an “air gap”, the “order book skew ratio” suggests otherwise. According to our analysts, this indicator measures the number of traders or investors on the ask side against those on the bid side.

尽管分析师认为比特币当前的价格位置与 10 万美元的价格点之间仅存在一个“空隙”，但“订单簿偏差比率”表明情况并非如此。根据我们的分析师的说法，该指标衡量的是询价方的交易者或投资者与出价方的交易者或投资者的数量。

Based on the reading, the three-day moving average of the 1% skew appears elevated. Fascinatingly, this has only happened thrice since 2022. What this means is that the “firing power” of the investors that drove the price from $66k to $99k has considerably reduced.

根据读数，1% 偏差的三天移动平均线似乎有所升高。令人着迷的是，自 2022 年以来，这种情况只发生了三次。这意味着将价格从 6.6 万美元推高至 9.9 万美元的投资者的“火力”已大大降低。

According to crypto prime broker FalconX, any slight negative news at this point could be catastrophic.

根据加密货币主要经纪商 FalconX 的说法，此时任何轻微的负面消息都可能是灾难性的。

“As we near $100K, the skew approaches levels seen only three times since 2022. While this doesn’t threaten the medium-term rally, it suggests that the struggle to break above the $100K level could be intense.”

“当价格接近 10 万美元时，这种偏差接近 2022 年以来仅出现过三次的水平。虽然这不会威胁到中期反弹，但它表明突破 10 万美元水平的斗争可能会很激烈。”