比特币的未来是以太坊

2025年，比特币不再是一个谜。人们明白了，如果他们正在考虑购买数字资产，他们会在很多货架上找到比特币。

A friend asked me to check out a family friend’s bitcoin. The friend had received the card at a conference and tossed it in a drawer. It was one of those moments where I felt like an imposter. I had been in the business for two years, preceded by another two monkeying around in my personal account, but I didn’t have nearly enough crypto cred to say, “Oh, yeah, wow. I remember these.”

一位朋友让我查看一位家人朋友的比特币。这位朋友在一次会议上收到了这张卡片，然后把它扔进了抽屉里。那是我感觉自己像个冒名顶替者的那些时刻之一。我已经在这个行业工作了两年，之前又在我的个人账户上闲逛了两年，但我没有足够的加密信用来说，“哦，是的，哇。这些我都记得。”

Fine, I’m a noob. I made a no-promises disclaimer and quickly changed the subject.

好吧，我是菜鸟。我做出了不承诺的免责声明，并迅速改变了话题。

Back home, I opened the image and set to work with the solemn determination of Quincy, M.E. (although forensic examination is an inapt metaphor, given the complete absence of foul play). How did these ancient wallets work? If the private key is printed on the card, how is that secure? I knew BIP39, but what’s BIP38?

回到家，我打开图像并开始按照缅因州昆西的庄严决心开始工作（尽管法医检查是一个不恰当的比喻，因为完全没有犯规行为）。这些古老的钱包是如何运作的？如果私钥印在卡上，那么安全性如何？我知道 BIP39，但 BIP38 是什么？

Learning ensued. Then, I checked the bitcoin blockchain and noted that exactly one bitcoin had been moved to this address nine-and-a-half years earlier, when a bitcoin fetched just over $325. No activity since. As for the obscured BIP38 “private” key, you need a passphrase to decrypt it. Uh-oh. Did the family friend save the passphrase for ten years, on a Post-it® now worth $100,000?

学习随之而来。然后，我检查了比特币区块链，发现九年前，正好有一枚比特币被转移到这个地址，当时一枚比特币的价格刚刚超过 325 美元。此后没有任何活动。至于被隐藏的 BIP38“私钥”，您需要一个密码来解密它。呃哦。这位家庭朋友是否将密码保存在一张现在价值 100,000 美元的便利贴上？

This week, I was out to see a show with a different group of friends. I offered to reimburse them for our tickets with crypto. “Set up a Phantom wallet, copy and securely store the seed phrase, and send me your Ethereum address. I’ll pay you in ether or USDC, your choice.”

这周，我和另一群朋友一起出去看演出。我提出用加密货币向他们报销我们的门票。 “设置一个 Phantom 钱包，复制并安全存储助记词，然后将您的以太坊地址发送给我。我会用以太币或 USDC 支付给你，你可以选择。”

I saw all the faces. Chuckle, eyeroll, are you serious, wait-a-minute, hmmm, why not, OK! I’m still waiting for that Ethereum address, but I have no doubt this will happen. Another “gimmick,” ten years later.

我看到了所有的面孔。轻笑，翻白眼，你是认真的吗？等一下，嗯，为什么不呢，好吧！我仍在等待那个以太坊地址，但我毫不怀疑这会发生。十年后，又一个“噱头”。

Why ETH or USDC? Why not bitcoin? In 2025, bitcoin is no longer a mystery. Folks get it, and if they are thinking about buying a digital asset, they’ll find bitcoin on many shelves. It’s a store of value. It’s scarce. As more buyers enter the market over time, its value should rise.

为什么选择 ETH 或 USDC？为什么不是比特币？ 2025年，比特币不再是一个谜。人们明白了，如果他们正在考虑购买数字资产，他们会在很多货架上找到比特币。这是一种价值储存手段。很稀缺。随着时间的推移，随着越来越多的买家进入市场，其价值应该会上升。

Many folks do not get Ethereum, nor smart contract platform blockchains. Folks don’t get stablecoins either, nor the fact that they rely on other blockchains, and involve paying fees in ETH or SOL or a dozen other blockchain coins. For the “5%ers” — those who will eventually spend 5% of their investing energy and resources on crypto — this feels like the next key intuition unlock.

许多人没有以太坊，也没有智能合约平台区块链。人们也得不到稳定币，也得不到他们依赖其他区块链的事实，并且涉及以 ETH 或 SOL 或十几种其他区块链代币支付费用。对于“5% 人”——那些最终将 5% 的投资精力和资源用于加密货币的人——这感觉就像是下一个关键的直觉解锁。

There is no better way to get there than to put a few “learning dollars” (i.e., not “investment dollars”) on-chain and move them around. I hope my friends take their new USDC and throw some on AAVE, bridge some to Solana, and buy something on Uniswap.

要实现这一目标，没有比将一些“学习资金”（即不是“投资资金”）放到链上并进行转移更好的方法了。我希望我的朋友们把他们的新 USDC 扔到 AAVE 上，桥接一些到 Solana，并在 Uniswap 上购买一些东西。

This primary research might solidify an investor’s conviction in a single platform. Or, just the opposite: it may solidify conviction that picking winners is hard in what is likely to be a year of explosive growth. XRP, XLM, and HBAR sat atop the 2024 leaderboard of the CoinDesk 20 Index, an outcome few would have predicted. We feel — actually, we are expecting — that investors and advisors will choose diversified market beta over the possibility of selection alpha.

这项初步研究可能会巩固投资者对单一平台的信念。或者，恰恰相反：这可能会坚定人们的信念，即在可能是爆炸性增长的一年中挑选赢家是很困难的。 XRP、XLM 和 HBAR 在 2024 年 CoinDesk 20 指数排行榜上名列前茅，这是很少有人预料到的结果。我们认为——实际上，我们预计——投资者和顾问将选择多元化的市场贝塔而不是选择阿尔法的可能性。

The holders of the plastic-wallet bitcoin did not “take the bait” and become active bitcoin enthusiasts (presumably), although, ex post, they did the right thing by throwing the wallet in a drawer for 10 years (along with a Post-it® with the passphrase; whew!). These days, I’m trying to take as many opportunities as possible to get folks to fire up a wallet and get some blockchain experience. (But if not, I’ll still be good for the theater tickets with fiat.)

塑料钱包比特币的持有者并没有“上钩”并成为活跃的比特币爱好者（大概），尽管事后他们做了正确的事情，将钱包扔进抽屉里 10 年（以及事后）。 it® 带有密码短语；哇！）。这些天，我试图利用尽可能多的机会让人们掏出钱包并获得一些区块链经验。 （但如果没有，我仍然可以用法定货币购买剧院门票。）