比特幣的未來是以太坊

2025年，比特幣不再是個謎。人們明白了，如果他們正在考慮購買數位資產，他們會在許多貨架上找到比特幣。

A friend asked me to check out a family friend’s bitcoin. The friend had received the card at a conference and tossed it in a drawer. It was one of those moments where I felt like an imposter. I had been in the business for two years, preceded by another two monkeying around in my personal account, but I didn’t have nearly enough crypto cred to say, “Oh, yeah, wow. I remember these.”

一位朋友要我查看一位家人朋友的比特幣。這位朋友在一次會議上收到了這張卡片，然後把它扔進了抽屜裡。那是我感覺自己像個冒名頂替者的那些時刻之一。我已經在這個行業工作了兩年，之前又在我的個人帳戶上閒逛了兩年，但我沒有足夠的加密信用來說，「哦，是的，哇。這些我都記得。

Fine, I’m a noob. I made a no-promises disclaimer and quickly changed the subject.

好吧，我是菜鳥。我做出了不承諾的免責聲明，並迅速改變了話題。

Back home, I opened the image and set to work with the solemn determination of Quincy, M.E. (although forensic examination is an inapt metaphor, given the complete absence of foul play). How did these ancient wallets work? If the private key is printed on the card, how is that secure? I knew BIP39, but what’s BIP38?

回到家，我打開圖像並開始按照緬因州昆西的莊嚴決心開始工作（儘管法醫檢查是一個不恰當的比喻，因為完全沒有犯規行為）。這些古老的錢包是如何運作的？如果私鑰印在卡片上，那麼安全性如何？我知道 BIP39，但 BIP38 是什麼？

Learning ensued. Then, I checked the bitcoin blockchain and noted that exactly one bitcoin had been moved to this address nine-and-a-half years earlier, when a bitcoin fetched just over $325. No activity since. As for the obscured BIP38 “private” key, you need a passphrase to decrypt it. Uh-oh. Did the family friend save the passphrase for ten years, on a Post-it® now worth $100,000?

學習隨之而來。然後，我檢查了比特幣區塊鏈，發現九年前，剛好有一枚比特幣被轉移到這個地址，當時一枚比特幣的價格剛剛超過 325 美元。此後沒有任何活動。至於模糊的 BIP38“私鑰”，您需要一個密碼來解密它。呃哦。這位家庭朋友是否將密碼保存在一張現在價值 10 萬美元的便利貼上？

This week, I was out to see a show with a different group of friends. I offered to reimburse them for our tickets with crypto. “Set up a Phantom wallet, copy and securely store the seed phrase, and send me your Ethereum address. I’ll pay you in ether or USDC, your choice.”

這週，我和另一群朋友一起出去看表演。我提出用加密貨幣向他們報銷我們的門票。 「設定一個 Phantom 錢包，複製並安全地儲存助記詞，然後將您的以太坊地址發送給我。我會用以太幣或 USDC 支付給你，你可以選擇。

I saw all the faces. Chuckle, eyeroll, are you serious, wait-a-minute, hmmm, why not, OK! I’m still waiting for that Ethereum address, but I have no doubt this will happen. Another “gimmick,” ten years later.

我看到了所有的臉。輕笑，翻白眼，你是認真的嗎？我仍在等待那個以太坊地址，但我毫不懷疑這會發生。十年後，又一個「噱頭」。

Why ETH or USDC? Why not bitcoin? In 2025, bitcoin is no longer a mystery. Folks get it, and if they are thinking about buying a digital asset, they’ll find bitcoin on many shelves. It’s a store of value. It’s scarce. As more buyers enter the market over time, its value should rise.

為什麼選擇 ETH 或 USDC？為什麼不是比特幣？ 2025年，比特幣不再是個謎。人們明白了，如果他們正在考慮購買數位資產，他們會在許多貨架上找到比特幣。這是一種價值儲存手段。很稀缺。隨著時間的推移，隨著越來越多的買家進入市場，其價值應該會上升。

Many folks do not get Ethereum, nor smart contract platform blockchains. Folks don’t get stablecoins either, nor the fact that they rely on other blockchains, and involve paying fees in ETH or SOL or a dozen other blockchain coins. For the “5%ers” — those who will eventually spend 5% of their investing energy and resources on crypto — this feels like the next key intuition unlock.

許多人沒有以太坊，也沒有智慧合約平台區塊鏈。人們也不會得到穩定幣，也不會得到他們依賴其他區塊鏈的事實，並涉及以 ETH 或 SOL 或十幾種其他區塊鏈代幣支付費用。對於「5% 人」——那些最終將 5% 的投資精力和資源用於加密貨幣的人——這感覺就像是下一個關鍵的直覺解鎖。

There is no better way to get there than to put a few “learning dollars” (i.e., not “investment dollars”) on-chain and move them around. I hope my friends take their new USDC and throw some on AAVE, bridge some to Solana, and buy something on Uniswap.

要實現這一目標，沒有比將一些「學習資金」（即不是「投資資金」）放到鏈上並進行轉移更好的方法了。我希望我的朋友們把他們的新 USDC 扔到 AAVE 上，橋接一些到 Solana，並在 Uniswap 上購買一些東西。

This primary research might solidify an investor’s conviction in a single platform. Or, just the opposite: it may solidify conviction that picking winners is hard in what is likely to be a year of explosive growth. XRP, XLM, and HBAR sat atop the 2024 leaderboard of the CoinDesk 20 Index, an outcome few would have predicted. We feel — actually, we are expecting — that investors and advisors will choose diversified market beta over the possibility of selection alpha.

這項初步研究可能會鞏固投資者對單一平台的信念。或者，恰恰相反：這可能會堅定人們的信念，即在可能是爆炸性增長的一年中挑選贏家是很困難的。 XRP、XLM 和 HBAR 在 2024 年 CoinDesk 20 指數排行榜上名列前茅，這是很少人預料到的結果。我們認為——實際上，我們預計——投資者和顧問將選擇多元化的市場貝塔而不是選擇阿爾法的可能性。

The holders of the plastic-wallet bitcoin did not “take the bait” and become active bitcoin enthusiasts (presumably), although, ex post, they did the right thing by throwing the wallet in a drawer for 10 years (along with a Post-it® with the passphrase; whew!). These days, I’m trying to take as many opportunities as possible to get folks to fire up a wallet and get some blockchain experience. (But if not, I’ll still be good for the theater tickets with fiat.)

塑膠錢包比特幣的持有者並沒有「上鉤」並成為活躍的比特幣愛好者（大概），儘管事後他們做了正確的事情，將錢包扔進抽屜裡 10 年（以及事後）。有密碼；哇！這些天，我試圖利用盡可能多的機會讓人們掏出錢包並獲得一些區塊鏈經驗。 （但如果沒有，我仍然可以用法定貨幣購買劇院門票。）