亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测比特币（BTC）将于2025年底达到25万美元

特朗普的关税重磅炸弹摇摇欲坠后，比特币下跌1.41％，至83,437美元。 24小时范围在$ 88,466至82,182美元之间，交易员正在支撑进一步的动荡！

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts that if Bitcoin (BTC) manages to stay afloat above the $76,500 level until April 15, the cryptocurrency market could witness some stability.

加密货币交易所BITMEX的前首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，如果比特币（BTC）设法保持超过76,500美元的水平，直到4月15日，则加密货币市场可能会见证一定的稳定性。

However, in a broader view, Hayes projects that Bitcoin could reach an impressive price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

但是，从更广泛的角度来看，海耶斯（Hayes）的项目表明，到2025年底，比特币的价格可能达到25万美元。

In a recent blog post titled "The BBC," Hayes elaborates on his predictions and the factors that could influence them.

海耶斯在最近的博客文章《英国广播公司》（The BBC）中阐述了他的预测以及可能影响它们的因素。

According to Hayes, President Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will put pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to return to printing money.

据海斯说，特朗普总统对财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）的选秀权将向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）施加压力，要求他们重返印刷资金。

Discussing a report by the BBC, he suggests that U.S. Treasury futures indicate foreign buyers, particularly China, are pulling back from holding the debt due to the calculus no longer favoring them.

在讨论英国广播公司（BBC）的一份报告时，他建议美国国库期货表明外国买家，尤其是中国，由于微积分不再偏爱他们而退回债务。

As a result, the task of mopping up the extra supply of Treasuries will fall on the Fed and U.S. banks.

结果，提高国库供应的额外供应的任务将落在美联储和美国银行上。

Explaining his point further, Hayes says that if the economy grows at a rate of 5%—3% real GDP and 2% inflation—but the government keeps borrowing 3% of GDP every year, then debt piles up faster than the economy grows.

海耶斯进一步解释了他的观点，说，如果经济增长的速度为5％-3％的实际GDP和2％的通货膨胀率，但政府每年借用3％的GDP，那么债务的增加速度就比经济增长快。

He warns that without lower yields or a major buyer for Treasuries, the debt-to-GDP ratio will spiral out of control, which is something that cannot continue.

他警告说，如果没有较低的收益率或国库的主要买家，债务与GDP的比率将失控，这是无法持续的。

While Powell has so far resisted calls to start easing again, Hayes believes there are already signs that he is preparing to submit. He highlights that the Fed cut rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris during the campaign.

尽管鲍威尔（Powell）到目前为止拒绝呼吁重新开始缓解，但海耶斯（Hayes）认为已经有迹象表明他准备提交。他强调，美联储在2024年9月降低了竞选期间的卡马拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的速度。

Moreover, Powell recently hinted at slowing the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which Hayes says is effectively Treasury QE—precisely what Bitcoin thrives on.

此外，鲍威尔最近暗示减慢了美联储资产负债表的减少，海耶斯说，这实际上是国库量化宽松的，这是比特币蓬勃发展的。

Highlighting that this calculus is shifting, Bessent has suggested relaxing post-2008 banking rules, which could free up billions more for Treasury purchases.

Bessent强调了这种演算正在发生变化，建议您放松2008年后的银行规则，该规则可以释放数十亿美元的财政购买。

The Fed has already slowed its roll-off of Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, which is a $240 billion annual liquidity shift.

美联储已经将国库的汇总从每月的250亿美元减少到50亿美元，这是每年2400亿美元的流动性转移。

If the Fed pivots completely to QE, Hayes anticipates even more cash flooding the market, which in turn would push Bitcoin prices higher.

如果美联储完全与量化宽松的旋转，海耶斯预计会有更多的现金淹没市场，这反过来将提高比特币价格。

To illustrate his point, Hayes compares this scenario to gold, which experienced a 30% surge after QE1 in 2008-2010. He argues that Bitcoin, being a non-sovereign asset class, would react even more explosively than gold to increased fiat liquidity.

为了说明他的观点，海耶斯将这种情况与黄金进行了比较，黄金经历了30％的QE1激增。他认为，比特币是一种非主管资产类别，对增加菲亚特流动性的反应比黄金更具爆炸性。

With BTC currently showing signs of recovery from the $76,500 level, Hayes predicts that the next logical price point would be six-figures, setting the stage for a final year-end target of $250,000. According to his forecast, BTC hits $110,000 before it ever revisits $76,500.

由于BTC目前显示从76,500美元的水平恢复的迹象，海耶斯预测，下一个逻辑上的价格将是六位数，为最后的年终目标奠定了基础，为250,000美元。根据他的预测，BTC在重新访问76,500美元之前上涨了110,000美元。

In essence, if the Fed turns on the money printer, then Hayes says the Bitcoin rocket is ready to launch.

从本质上讲，如果美联储打开了货币打印机，那么海斯说，比特币火箭准备发射。