Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Will Hit $250K by the End of 2025

Bitcoin dipped 1.41% to $83,437 after Trump's tariff bombshell rattled markets. With a 24-hour range between $88,466 and $82,182, traders are bracing for more turbulence ahead!

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts that if Bitcoin (BTC) manages to stay afloat above the $76,500 level until April 15, the cryptocurrency market could witness some stability.

However, in a broader view, Hayes projects that Bitcoin could reach an impressive price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

In a recent blog post titled "The BBC," Hayes elaborates on his predictions and the factors that could influence them.

According to Hayes, President Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will put pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to return to printing money.

Discussing a report by the BBC, he suggests that U.S. Treasury futures indicate foreign buyers, particularly China, are pulling back from holding the debt due to the calculus no longer favoring them.

As a result, the task of mopping up the extra supply of Treasuries will fall on the Fed and U.S. banks.

Explaining his point further, Hayes says that if the economy grows at a rate of 5%—3% real GDP and 2% inflation—but the government keeps borrowing 3% of GDP every year, then debt piles up faster than the economy grows.

He warns that without lower yields or a major buyer for Treasuries, the debt-to-GDP ratio will spiral out of control, which is something that cannot continue.

While Powell has so far resisted calls to start easing again, Hayes believes there are already signs that he is preparing to submit. He highlights that the Fed cut rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris during the campaign.

Moreover, Powell recently hinted at slowing the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which Hayes says is effectively Treasury QE—precisely what Bitcoin thrives on.

Highlighting that this calculus is shifting, Bessent has suggested relaxing post-2008 banking rules, which could free up billions more for Treasury purchases.

The Fed has already slowed its roll-off of Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, which is a $240 billion annual liquidity shift.

If the Fed pivots completely to QE, Hayes anticipates even more cash flooding the market, which in turn would push Bitcoin prices higher.

To illustrate his point, Hayes compares this scenario to gold, which experienced a 30% surge after QE1 in 2008-2010. He argues that Bitcoin, being a non-sovereign asset class, would react even more explosively than gold to increased fiat liquidity.

With BTC currently showing signs of recovery from the $76,500 level, Hayes predicts that the next logical price point would be six-figures, setting the stage for a final year-end target of $250,000. According to his forecast, BTC hits $110,000 before it ever revisits $76,500.

In essence, if the Fed turns on the money printer, then Hayes says the Bitcoin rocket is ready to launch.