亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測比特幣（BTC）將於2025年底達到25萬美元

特朗普的關稅重磅炸彈搖搖欲墜後，比特幣下跌1.41％，至83,437美元。 24小時範圍在$ 88,466至82,182美元之間，交易員正在支撐進一步的動盪！

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts that if Bitcoin (BTC) manages to stay afloat above the $76,500 level until April 15, the cryptocurrency market could witness some stability.

加密貨幣交易所BITMEX的前首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，如果比特幣（BTC）設法保持超過76,500美元的水平，直到4月15日，則加密貨幣市場可能會見證一定的穩定性。

However, in a broader view, Hayes projects that Bitcoin could reach an impressive price point of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

但是，從更廣泛的角度來看，海耶斯（Hayes）的項目表明，到2025年底，比特幣的價格可能達到25萬美元。

In a recent blog post titled "The BBC," Hayes elaborates on his predictions and the factors that could influence them.

海耶斯在最近的博客文章《英國廣播公司》（The BBC）中闡述了他的預測以及可能影響它們的因素。

According to Hayes, President Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will put pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to return to printing money.

據海斯說，特朗普總統對財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）的選秀權將向美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）施加壓力，要求他們重返印刷資金。

Discussing a report by the BBC, he suggests that U.S. Treasury futures indicate foreign buyers, particularly China, are pulling back from holding the debt due to the calculus no longer favoring them.

在討論英國廣播公司（BBC）的一份報告時，他建議美國國庫期貨表明外國買家，尤其是中國，由於微積分不再偏愛他們而退回債務。

As a result, the task of mopping up the extra supply of Treasuries will fall on the Fed and U.S. banks.

結果，提高國庫供應的額外供應的任務將落在美聯儲和美國銀行上。

Explaining his point further, Hayes says that if the economy grows at a rate of 5%—3% real GDP and 2% inflation—but the government keeps borrowing 3% of GDP every year, then debt piles up faster than the economy grows.

海耶斯進一步解釋了他的觀點，說，如果經濟增長的速度為5％-3％的實際GDP和2％的通貨膨脹率，但政府每年借用3％的GDP，那麼債務的增加速度就比經濟增長快。

He warns that without lower yields or a major buyer for Treasuries, the debt-to-GDP ratio will spiral out of control, which is something that cannot continue.

他警告說，如果沒有較低的收益率或國庫的主要買家，債務與GDP的比率將失控，這是無法持續的。

While Powell has so far resisted calls to start easing again, Hayes believes there are already signs that he is preparing to submit. He highlights that the Fed cut rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris during the campaign.

儘管鮑威爾（Powell）到目前為止拒絕呼籲重新開始緩解，但海耶斯（Hayes）認為已經有跡象表明他準備提交。他強調，美聯儲在2024年9月降低了競選期間的卡馬拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的速度。

Moreover, Powell recently hinted at slowing the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which Hayes says is effectively Treasury QE—precisely what Bitcoin thrives on.

此外，鮑威爾最近暗示減慢了美聯儲資產負債表的減少，海耶斯說，這實際上是國庫量化寬鬆的，這是比特幣蓬勃發展的。

Highlighting that this calculus is shifting, Bessent has suggested relaxing post-2008 banking rules, which could free up billions more for Treasury purchases.

Bessent強調了這種演算正在發生變化，建議您放鬆2008年後的銀行規則，該規則可以釋放數十億美元的財政購買。

The Fed has already slowed its roll-off of Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, which is a $240 billion annual liquidity shift.

美聯儲已經將國庫的匯總從每月的250億美元減少到50億美元，這是每年2400億美元的流動性轉移。

If the Fed pivots completely to QE, Hayes anticipates even more cash flooding the market, which in turn would push Bitcoin prices higher.

如果美聯儲完全與量化寬鬆的旋轉，海耶斯預計會有更多的現金淹沒市場，這反過來將提高比特幣價格。

To illustrate his point, Hayes compares this scenario to gold, which experienced a 30% surge after QE1 in 2008-2010. He argues that Bitcoin, being a non-sovereign asset class, would react even more explosively than gold to increased fiat liquidity.

為了說明他的觀點，海耶斯將這種情況與黃金進行了比較，黃金經歷了30％的QE1激增。他認為，比特幣是一種非主管資產類別，對增加菲亞特流動性的反應比黃金更具爆炸性。

With BTC currently showing signs of recovery from the $76,500 level, Hayes predicts that the next logical price point would be six-figures, setting the stage for a final year-end target of $250,000. According to his forecast, BTC hits $110,000 before it ever revisits $76,500.

由於BTC目前顯示從76,500美元的水平恢復的跡象，海耶斯預測，下一個邏輯上的價格將是六位數，為最後的年終目標奠定了基礎，為250,000美元。根據他的預測，BTC在重新訪問76,500美元之前上漲了110,000美元。

In essence, if the Fed turns on the money printer, then Hayes says the Bitcoin rocket is ready to launch.

從本質上講，如果美聯儲打開了貨幣打印機，那麼海斯說，比特幣火箭準備發射。